The second week of the fantasy season saw three lopsided wins for the favorites.  The Armadillos romped their way to a rare 10-0 sweep of the Thunderwolves.  Heather put together a phenomenal performance to top the Goofballs.  The Legion righted the ship with strong pitching versus the Happy Hollidays.  Only the Possums were able to threaten an upset, but they were done in by Bryce Harper and the Lannisters.  It was a business-like week for the top of the league, and the stage is set for several interesting early match-ups in week 03.

LK Armadillos (1-0) vs. KK Thunderwolves (0-1)

The Armadillos posted the week’s most dominant stat line against the Thunderwolves.  Larry had a strong offensive base with eight players hitting at least one home run.  Mark Trumbo was a surprise with three in 16 at-bats.  Rougned Odor also provided good production from the second base position with eight hits and seven RBIs.  The Armadillo attack was balanced up and down the lineup.

The Thunderwolves continued to struggle offensively.  Kyle had the fewest steals in the league and was near the bottom in OBP, SLG, and HR.  However, the Thunderwolves maintained a competitive RBI total that fell just short.  The lack of power must be concerning to Kyle.  After investing heavily on the pitching side in the draft and through freezes, the Thunderwolves have not had the offensive firepower for the past couple of seasons.  If the trend continues, Kyle may need to address his struggles through trades or waiver pick-ups.

On the pitching side, neither the Armadillos nor the Thunderwolves had strong ERA or WHIP numbers compared to the stellar efforts from the PhoeGnomes, Legion, Goofballs, or Lannisters.  Both teams pitched about the same number of innings, but the Armadillos took strikeout, wins and saves despite similar rate stats.  Aaron Nola’s horrible 12.0 IP spoiled a quality week for Michael Wacha (12.0 IP, 11 hits, 1 ER) for Kyle.  Aaron Sanchez was a standout for the Armadillos – he allowed just two earned runs over 13 IP.  Craig Kimbrel led the way for the Armadillos bullpen, and helped secure a second five category sweep.  The Armadillos were hard to stop this week, and their combined attack got the job done.  The Thunderwolves are left looking for answers, but Kyle has proven that he is unafraid to make a deal to improve his team.

CP Legion (0-1) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (1-0)

After a rough first week against the PhoeGnomes, the Legion looked to rebound against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to carry over his early success into week two against one of the league’s best teams.  Unfortunately for the league’s newest owner, Chris P. unleashed the best pitching performance in the league en route to a clean 7-3-0 win.  Both teams took a quality-over-quantity approach with only one two-start pitcher between the squads.  Anchoring the Legion was Vince Velasquez, whose three-hit complete game also featured 16 strikeouts.  The Legion used 12 pitchers for the week and only four of them (three starters) allowed earned runs.  This gave Chris P. the best WHIP in the league, a tie for the best ERA and the second most strikeouts.  The Hollidays struggled to keep up in anything other than wins and saves.  The Legion were able to take both of those categories, as well, giving Chris P. the five-category sweep.  The performance was one of the best the league has seen in some time, especially given the number of wins and strikeouts the Legion were able to achieve with a limited number of starters.

On offense, neither team was able to get much traction.  The Hollidays were marginally better thanks to a pair of two-home run weeks from Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday.  Francisco Lindor added two steals and Chris M. was able to win all three counting categories for the week.  Unfortunately for the Hollidays, the Legion were slightly better in the OBP and SLG categories.  The Legion are clearly feeling the offensive dip after trading away several members of their core to the PhoeGnomes.  George Springer and Ryan Braun were able to keep the Legion competitive, but they will need more help to remain in contention against better offensive teams.  Ultimately, the Legion were able to pull out a solid win.  The Hollidays will need to level their performance in the coming weeks.

JK Lannisters (1-0) vs. RK Possums (0-1)

After a tough battle against the Goofballs to open the season, the Lannisters faced another bitter struggle against the Possums.  Although the Possums have the league’s lowest Elo rating, they have traditionally posted a match-up problem against the defending champs.  This week was no different, and Rick threw everything he had into the hotly-contested battle.  Both teams posted huge power numbers.  The Possums had ten players with a home run.  Albert Pujols and Ian Kinsler were at the top of the list with two each, paired with 11 RBI.  Josh Donaldson led the Possums’ regulars in SLG, and helped propel the team to a victory in the category.  Good weeks from Wilson Ramos and Jeremy Hazelbaker also helped Rick win RBI.

Unfortunately for the Possums, the Lannisters also posted great offensive numbers for the week.  The Lannisters won OBP by a safe margin, and took steals thanks to Jason Kipnis.  However, the standouts for the week were JD Martinez and Bryce Harper.  The two combined for six home runs, 18 RBI, and two steals.  This gave the Lannisters a tie in HR, and a 2-3 deficit before pitching.

After struggling for most of last season against unfavorable pitching match-ups, the Possums looked to adapt and throw more innings this season.  This process gave the Possums the highest strikeout and wins totals in the league for the week, but left the team vulnerable in ERA and WHIP.  The Lannisters capitalized thanks to strong weeks from Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.  Jeff took ERA and WHIP without much of a fight.  He also piled up more saves, and buried the Possums 9-5 in this variable category.  This gave the Lannisters a close 5-4-1 victory.

At one point on Sunday, it looked like the Possums were heading for a tie.  Rick led the HR category late in the day, but Bryce Harper’s 10th inning swing turned the category into a tie.  The Possums can take some comfort that they did not leave any home runs on their bench on Sunday.  Also, Rick would have beaten all the other teams besides the Armadillos and PhoeGnomes.  The Possums are looking better even if the results are not yet noticeable in the standings.  For the Lannisters, the win capped another difficult struggle.

HP PhoeGnomes (1-0) vs. KG Capital City Goofballs (0-1)

In the first week of the season, the Goofballs faced the defending champs.  Their luck didn’t get any better against the improved PhoeGnomes.  Heather put together the most complete week in the league, and looks red-hot going into her battle with the Lannisters.  The PhoeGnomes pitching was just a fraction behind the Legion while her offense paced the league in several categories.

The PhoeGnomes pitched an average number of innings, but achieved outstanding results, especially on the rate side.  Chris Sale was on fire, pitching a two hit/no walk shutout.  Gio Gonzalez was almost as good but over fewer innings.  The bullpen was clicking as well, finishing third in the league in saves.  Heather easily took these three categories, but the Goofballs were unwilling to concede anything further.  Kevin threw five more innings, but logged 13 more strikeouts.  He also took wins, behind strong performances from Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stroman.  This gave Heather a slim 3-2 lead before adding hitting.

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, Heather turned in one of the better offensive weeks in the league.  Her 14 homeruns and 44 RBI were easily the best.  They also contributed to a solid 0.500 SLG.  The bulk of the work came from Nolan Arenado (4 HR/12 RBI), Jose Altuve (3/7), Chris Davis (3/8) and Andrew McCutchen (2/3).  Kevin had seven players with home runs, including two each from Brandon Belt and Yoenis Cespedes.  It wasn’t enough to turn the tide, though, and Heather rolled on to an 8-2 win.  The loss puts the Goofballs and 0-2, but they have performed better statistically than the Legion, Happy Hollidays, Thunderwolves, and Possums.  At some point, they have to hope that the results catch up to the process.

Next week:

The PhoeGnomes huge win over the Goofballs sets Heather up for a key early match-up against the Lannisters.  Heather’s new additions are paying immediate dividends, and she knows how important it is to log wins early and secure tie-breakers.  The Lannisters are also keenly aware of this possibility, and will use every available resource to defend their title.  Elsewhere, the Armadillos face their rivals, the Legion.  Larry has avoided early scares in a solid start.  The Legion will have to improve their offense if they want to keep pace.

The Goofballs face the Happy Hollidays in an expansion battle.  Kevin will hope to take out his frustrations on the Hollidays, who showed vulnerability in Week 02.  Finally, barring a tie, either the Thunderwolves or Possums will pick up their first win of the season in their match.  The Possums have deserved better in the first two weeks, and the Thunderwolves will do anything they can to avoid falling to 0-3.

This is the first of a weekly report on Elo ratings.  If you are not sure what these are, please check out the introduction I posted last month.

The season’s opening week provided new insight into each team’s true talent level.

The largest Elo gain belongs to the PhoeGnomes, who moved up almost 13 points after defeating the Legion.  Chris M. also moved closer to the 1,500 level with his win over the Thunderwolves.  The Armadillos and Lannisters saw smaller gains against weaker-rated opponents.  Remember, as your Elo rating rises, the amount of points you win for defeating inferior teams decreases.  You also lose more points when an underdog wins.

These ratings give the following probabilities going into Week 02:

As expected, the Lannisters are a heavy favorite against the Possums.  The Possums have just a 31% chance to win.  The Thunderwolves are also heavy underdogs to the Armadillos.  The Goofballs/PhoeGnomes match-up reads as a toss-up, but it’s important to remember that Heather’s new additions will take time to influence the team’s Elo rating.

Chris P. and Larry are also heavy favorites over the Happy Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  It will be interesting to see how these match-ups go.  The fact that the league’s best Elo team (the Lannisters) versus the lowest (the Possums) yields only a 70% chance of victory for the favorite shows how competitive the league is.

This post will track all trades with future considerations for the 2016 season.

2016-03-19
RK 2016 Round 06 pick (Joe Ross)
– for –
CP 2017 Round 05 pick

2016-04-03
CP Paul Goldschmidt
– for –
HP 2017 Round 01 Pick
HP PTBNL – Noah Syndergaard
Must me announced prior to the World Series – players are known to Commissioner.

2016-05-17
LK Matt Carpenter
– for –
KK Ian Desmond
KK 2017 Round 06 Pick

2016-06-05
LK Roberto Osuna
– for –
CP 2017 Round 04 Pick or CP 2017 Round 06 Pick
Larry gets the Round 04 pick if he finished behind or tied with Chris.  Otherwise, he gets Round 06.

2016-06-12
CP Eduardo Nunez
CP Steven Wright
– for –
HP 2017 Round ?? Pick
If Nunez reaches 20/20 and Heather freezes him, Legion get Round 04 Pick
If Nunez does not reach 20/20 and Heather freezes him, Legion get Round 05 Pick
If Heather does not freeze Nunez, Legion get Round 06 Pick

2016-08-08
LK Carlos Gomez
LK Kenta Maeda
LK 2017 Round 21 Pick
– for –
KK Alex Colome

2017-02-02
LK Daniel Murphy
LK Jeanmar Gomez
– for –
KK Mark Melancon

2017-02-02
LK Rougned Odor
LK Ian Desmond
– for –
KK Daniel Murphy
KK 2017 Round 02 Pick

2017-02-02
RK Adam Jones
– for –
KK 2017 Round 09 Pick

2017-02-02
CP Jonathan Villar
CP Noah Syndergaard
CP 2017 Round 07 Pick
CP 2017 Round 14 Pick
– for –
LK Carlos Correa
LK Joey Gallo
LK 2017 Round 05 Pick
LK 2017 Round 08 Pick
LK 2017 Round 15 Pick

2017-02-02
RK 2017 Round 03 Pick
– for –
CP Joey Gallo

2017-02-02
CP 2017 Round 06 Pick
-for –
KK Gerrit Cole

The Dick Nen Pre-Draft Analysis for the Dirt Mountain League

Dick Nen is a former MLB first baseman (father of former major league reliever Robb Nen).  Nen played for the Los Angeles Dodgers (1963), the Washington Senators (1965–1967, 1970) and the Chicago Cubs (1968).  His major league debut was September 18, 1963 with the Dodgers.  As a pinch hitter in the top of the ninth inning against  St. Louis, he hit a key, game-tying home run that eventually resulted in a three-game Dodger sweep over the Cardinals.  I was listening to KMOX in St. Louis on a scratchy, worn out, fading in and out radio in Texas.  Since I was a young Dodger fan, it was one my most memorable home runs.  Nen would go on to hit only 20 more homers in the majors before retiring.  His first one was a big one.  This report is named in his honor.        -Larry

RK—Possums (8th)  7-16-2

The Possums finished dead last in 2015.  And not just playing dead either.  They were 2.5 games out of 7th with only seven victories, and they were 10 full wins behind the champion Lannisters.

And yet they didn’t have a single last place finish in ANY of the ten statistical scoring categories!  They were 2nd in one group, 4th in three others, and averaged 5th for all categories.  So what happened??  Running into hot teams?  Poor pitching matchups?  Inopportune injuries?  Slumps at bad times?  Rick has probably spent the long off season asking those questions and wondering “why me?”

But a new season is almost upon us and the Possums are looking for some revenge.  And there is some hope on the roster.  But there are questions to be answered here as well.

RK traded his own #1 for LK’s #1 and #6.  He then flipped LK’s #1 and his own #8 to JK for Josh Donaldson and JK’s #9.  Donaldson brings instant credibility to the Possums infield.  With Xander Bogaerts at SS the left side is in fine shape.  The right side of the infield depends on health and injuries.  At their best Votto, Pujols, and Kinsler would be excellent.  But will they hold up for the long season?

If Evan Gattis regains catcher eligibility, he will be fine there.  If not, there would seem to be a logjam with him and Pujols at DH.   The OF also has injury concerns.  Adam Jones is strong, but Brantley won’t be ready for opening day.  What if his injury lingers?  Blackmon is good, but K. Davis could have playing time issues after his trade to Oakland, though both guys offer good potential.

Starting pitching should be a strong suit – Scherzer, Kluber, and Tanaka are a formidable trio.  And if Verlander bounces back…it’s even stronger.  The bullpen offers only Britton – who has been very good, but who also has injury concerns.

Draft picks:  Traded two #1’s and an 8 – added a 6 and 9.

Draft outlook:  Overall, Rick has good balance.  But he will need to look early for help behind the plate.  And, obviously, RP will be high on the list of needs.  There’s also a need for some OF depth, and a backup infielder probably will be high on the wish list.  Other than that, the Possums should be able to go after the best players available, but they may want to keep an eye toward getting a little younger.

CM—The Happy Hollidays (7th)  9-13-3

The team formerly known as the Kazoos were tied for 6th/7th last year, but lost a tiebreaker and are drafting as the 7th place team – a respectable enough finish for an expansion club.  Our first Michigan based franchise has moved to Chicago under the guidance of new manager (and Cardinals fan) Chris Mikell.  Without CM’s guidance, the team’s hitting was poor — they were last in the league in HR, SB, and SLG.  They were next to last in OBP; however, in an oddity, they managed to finish 4th in RBI?

Their pitching, on the other hand, was reasonably strong.  They ended up 2nd in strikeouts, only 11 K’s behind the league leading Legion.  And they were 4th in saves, and 5th in wins.  However, their ERA and WHIP were too high for them to make much of a run, especially considering the weak offense.  But staying out of the cellar as an expansion team is a nice accomplishment.

CM inherited a trade made by Ron, the prior owner, which moved his own 1st round pick to JK for Jeff’s 1st and 5th round picks this year.  After he took over, CM engineered a trade that netted his team two young and promising talents – Sal Perez (C) and Randall Grichuk (OF) for his #3 and #8 picks this year.  It’s a deal that gave him two decent bats to add to a relatively weak lineup, and also made his team much younger.  Currently all his other players (except the two he traded for) are over 30.  So Chris knows that he needs to address his weaknesses, and, at the same time, be aware of the need for an influx of young talent.

Draft picks:  Traded a 1, 3, and 8 — added a 1, 5, and 10.

Draft outlook:  There’s no SS or RP on the roster, so Chris M. will need to look in that direction fairly early.  If Tex is healthy, 1B could be OK for another year at least, but there is a lot of age there.  2B looks good with N. Walker, but 3B is a little iffy with Wright and Prado.  Perez is a nice addition – not the greatest fantasy numbers, but decent, and he’s a guy who plays almost every day (an obvious rarity at catcher).  Ben Zobrist offers some flexibility with 2B and OF eligibility.  The OF could be surprisingly good if Holliday is healthy and Grichuk takes another step forward in his development.   The SP led by Cole Hamels and a rejuvenated Jaime Garcia has some potential.  I would expect the Hollidays to go for some young talent to start building up their core players – this certainly should be a good year to do that.

KG—Capital City Goofballs (6th)  9-13-3

 The Goofballs won a tiebreaker and are drafting as the 6th place team.  Again, a very respectable showing for an expansion club.  But I know KG is aching to improve as he begins his second season at the helm of the original Chicago franchise.

Despite finishing last in 4 of the 10 scoring categories and 7th in another, Kevin was able to guide his team to a 6th place finish.  In fact, he was in the top four only in steals (3rd) and HR (4th).  He made some very adept moves on the fly during his first season, and I expect he will continue to do so in 2016.

He has some strong assets to build upon.  At 1B, he retained Brandon Belt and added Freddie Freeman in a trade with the Lannisters.  The Goofballs have an outstanding 2B in Dozier and are very strong at 3B with Frazier and Maikel Franco.  The OF is serviceable with Cain, Cespedes, and a young potential star in Jorge Soler (if he can find playing time in a very crowded Cubs outfield).

KG pulled off a trade with LK that brought him Cueto and a #15 to allow LK to move up one spot in the first round.  This gives KG a solid rotation of Price, Gray, Stroman, Odirizzi, and Cueto.  He also has protected two strong bullpen arms in Carlos Rondon and Ken Giles.  Pitching should be a strong point.

Draft picks: Traded 1, 5, and 22 – added a 1 and 15.

Draft Outlook:  Like the Legion and the Wolves, the Goofballs have no SS or C on their roster.  The Possums have no C and the Hollidays and Armadillos have no SS.  So much for teams that are strong up the middle!  Certainly, the Goofballs will need to strike early to fill their void behind the plate and at shortstop.  But other than that, they are well balanced and should be able to go after the best players regardless of position.  I’m sure KG is happy to be starting with a full complement of draft picks.

 KK—Thunderwolves (5th)  11-12-2

 The Wolves flirted with the first division for a while last season, before finishing just a half game back.  The team will be looking to move up this season.  To do so, they will rely on pitching and more pitching.  That’s the Kyle’s prime focus, and he is loaded.  Cole, Greinke, Fernandez, Darvish, Wacha, Ventura – wow!  Melancon to close out.  KK has few immediate pitcher concerns.  Last season they were 1st in W, 2nd in both ERA and WHIP, and tied for 2nd in Saves.  This staff should be tough.

Offensively, the outlook isn’t as predictable.  Can Fielder repeat last year’s comeback?  Will Beltre stay healthy…and, if he does, will his age catch up with him?  Will Upton remain at the same high level?  Will Heyward finally have that big season everyone has been waiting for?  Will Choo be the first or second half version from last year?  Can Cruz connect for 44 homers again?  Can Carpenter be counted on to have a SLG pct. higher than Abreu, Frazier, and Kris Bryant again, as he did in 2015?  And if most of these players break the right way and repeat their good performances, will even that be enough?  Last year the Wolves were 7th in ALL hitting categories except OBP (3rd?).  Most importantly then is where will the offense come from?

Draft picks:  Traded 1 and 2 – added a 2, 5, and 12.

Draft Outlook:  The Wolves could have a dominating starting rotation, but will need to add bullpen depth (which as everyone found out last year isn’t easy to do).  The biggest concern is the offense.  This is a team that needs some good consistent hitters.  Many of the hitters last year were streaky – which can cost a manager a week – and then the next week the same guys can explode and give you an easy win with wasted numbers.  While paying the price for protecting all his those pitchers, KK has to find a C, a 1B, a 2B, and a SS – those are a lot of holes to fill!  It is going to be a crucial draft for Kyle.  He has to nail some solid picks if he hopes to break into the first division.

LK—Armadillos (4th)  11-11-3

 Well, according to the Elo ratings, the Armadillos are the epitome of consistent mediocrity.  Check out the perfect .500 record.  Check out the steady Elo’s – never too high – never too low. A half game out of third – a half game out of fifth.  This year they hope to improve.

LK’s team last year actually won 1st place in RBI, ERA, WHIP, and Saves, but was well down the charts in other categories.  The team has Anthony Rizzo at 1B and Edwin Encarnacion to back him up and be the DH.  Rougned Odor was picked up on waivers and could be a real find at 2B.  Anthony Rendon can play either 2B or 3B – if he can stay healthy.  Brain McCann is at catcher.   The OF could be a real strength if they stay healthy and perform at past high levels.  But there is definite injury uncertainty with nearly the whole batch of them:  Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, and Billy Hamilton.  Pitching was a strong point last year and Kershaw and Harvey are returning as starters.  And Larry decided to bring back his tough bullpen intact by keeping Kimbrel, Rosenthal, and Familia who combined for 130 saves last year.

Draft picks:  Traded 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, and 15 – added 1, 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 12, 20, and 22

Draft Outlook:  The Armadillos love to deal and have two of the first three picks after overpaying Kevin to move up just one slot in the first round.  Is there method to their madness?  They have lost and gained picks all over the board.  But they will have to very careful about how the draft plays out when they reach stretches without picks.  The team has had long standing major problems in the infield.  They have tried without luck to trade for talent at 2B, SS, and 3B.  One of those positions will be targeted early in the draft, but the other two will also need to be solved if the team intends to compete for a title.  LK has a good mix of young players and veterans.  But to compete with the Lannisters and Legion – and the rising PhoeGnomes – and the hungry group of teams that finished below them this year, the Armadillos have to have an outstanding draft or they will surely fade in the standings.

HP—PhoeGnomes (3rd) 12-11-2

 Heather’s squad finished at the top of the middle tier of teams besting the Wolves and Armadillos for third place, but still 4.5 games back of the Lannisters.  Her newly named team did indeed pull off a renaissance by rising from the ashes of the previous year’s last place finish and a 7-15-1 record into the first division.  But her team was clearly an enigma.

HP was 3rd in SLG, but only 5th in HR, 6th in OBP and SB, and 7th in RBI.  On the pitching side of the ledger, she was near the bottom in most categories – last in ERA, 7th in Saves’s, 7th in Wins, and 5th in K’s.  Her team seemed to play above the stats – unlike the Possums who seemed to do the reverse.  So was there really a five game gap between the two teams?  The PhoeGnomes go into 2016 hoping to answer that question with a resounding “yes.”

Heather has an extra first round pick from a prior trade, and now has the sixth and seventh slots in the first round.  It is always nice to have back to back picks in your pocket going into a draft.

Draft Picks:  Traded – none – added a 1 and 6.

Draft Outlook:  HP seems to have a very well balanced group of protected players – and some very talented ones.  At 1B is Abreu and Chris Davis, who can also play OF.  At 2B is Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve  with B. Crawford at SS.  HP declined numerous trade offers (from the Armadillos) so Nolan Arenado remains at 3B.  (Heather can expect another run at Arenado before she picks next Saturday! Hey, Jeff traded an MVP…).

The OF is little less of a sure thing, but there is still much potential with Springer, Puig, and Dickerson.  d’Arnaud is unproven behind the plate, but offers a possible upside.  The rotation includes Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Tyson Ross, and T. Walker – nice.  The obvious need is RP which Heather will have to address early.  Other than that she will have the luxury of choosing the best players without too much regard to position.  I expect her to come away from this draft with a very talented group of players, and if she does, the PhoeGnomes could be a force.

CP—Legion (2nd)  15-8-2

The Legion ended up a game and a half off the pace last year after a tough season-long battle with the Lannisters.  As can be seen by the Elo ratings on the Dirt Mountain website, the Legion have had some dominant stats over the past seasons, but have only one title to show for it.  That has to be frustrating for Chris, and there is little doubt he will pull out all the stops to try to bring home a championship this year.

The Legion finished second in OBP & SLG and third in HR & RBI and even 5th in SB.  His offense will go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.  Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Jose “Bat-Flip’ Bautista, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen – all powerful sluggers.  CP also has Javier Baez (waiting for a position and a full time gig), Kolten Wong, and Joc Pederson waiting to break out.  There is also a trio of capable 3B in Longoria, Moustakas, and Castellanos.

However, on the pitching side, despite a 1st in K’s and a tie for 2nd in Wins, the team finished last in all the other pitching categories.  That included the highest ERA at 4.10, almost a half run worst than the closest challenger.  Of course, Chris generally disdains pitching, unless it is a potential ace he can develop then trade way for sluggers (see Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw)!  Note that he did hang on to one starter – Danny Salazar – so if you need a good pitcher – dial up Chris P. and dangle a big hitter in front of him.  The Legion (and Armadillos) are always willing to listen to an offer!  CP does value great relievers, and he protected two of the good ones in Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

Draft picks:  Traded 1, 6, and 7 – added – (you must be kidding) none

Draft Outlook:  The Legion can flat out hit.  They have a lot of power.  They have the potential to place very high once again in all the hitting categories.  They do need a SS and catcher as none were frozen.  This could be a bit problematic because so many other teams are in the same situation with one or both of those positions.  Chris lost only three draft picks this year, so he will have a more normal draft than usual as he tries to reload and find quality backups.  Keep an eye open though, as Chris is the Dirt Mountain version of “Jerry Jones” – he is definitely not afraid to wheel and deal on draft day.  So I expect at least a trade or two before we are done that could change the landscape of the draft board.   Things have been a bit quiet at Legion headquarters…

JK—Lannisters  (1st) 17-7-1

 Congratulations to the Lannisters!  Jeff’s team roared to a 17 win season and last year’s championship.  And talk about loaded!  Trout, Harper, Machado, and the oldest one of them is 25!  Plus AJ Pollock, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Buster Posey – the class of his position (notice how many teams didn’t even freeze a catcher).  Also Tulowitzski, Cano, and Kipnis — if they stay healthy, they are all excellent.  On the pitching side they have King Felix, Strasburg, and deGrom plus two strong relievers in Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen.  Plus the second and fifth picks in the draft!  Whew…this is a team that will be tough to beat!

Their biggest decisions in the offseason was deciding who to try to trade and recoup something, since they could only freeze 15.  JK traded away the AL MVP, Josh Donaldson — what other team has the depth to do that??   He didn’t even protect the AL Cy Young winner, Kuechel.  Don’t feel too sorry for him though, he still has the NL MVP in Bryce Harper!  He was also able to get back some value for Freddie Freeman and Billy Hamilton rather than just cutting them for nothing.  Jeff had some very tough calls on who to cut and who to keep – but it appears he played it well.

The Lannisters, as you would suspect, won many scoring categories.  They were first in HR, SB, OBP, and SLG…and second in RBI (to that clutch hitting .500 team – the Armadillos).  They also finished high in most pitching categories including a tie for second in Wins and Saves.  Again, they are very strong and built to last.  Can they be stopped next season?  Seven teams will try!

Draft Picks:  Traded a 1, 5, 8, 9, 11, and 20 – added a 1, 1, 5, 7, 8, and 9

Draft Outlook:  Jeff has two of the first five picks.  He has good balance and needs only a 1B.  He has a good mix of veterans and youth, so he too can afford to draft for quality without having to reach for position needs.  There are several 1B available to fill his only hole – he won’t have to go that way too early if he doesn’t want to.  As good as his team is, however, there are some concerns with the pitching.  Hernandez was erratic last year, and he had some blow ups in a few games that inflated his stats.  Is he starting to slow done or was it just a blip on the radar?  Strasburg remains a mystery – will he ever be the 20 game winner and ace that his stuff seems to indicate he should be?  Can deGrom duplicate his outstanding 2015 season?  If any of those pitchers falter, then the Lannisters might look a bit more human, but it will still be very difficult for anyone to pass up the Lannisters.  It is going to be very interesting to see what Jeff does with those first two high picks!

Next Saturday, March 19, 2016 — fasten your seatbelts!

The 2016 draft is scheduled for March 19, 2016.  We will be using computers to communicates picks, so be sure to vote for your preferred option on the league homepage.

Remember, each team is limited to 40 players on their rosters.  We don’t expect the draft to take as long as in years past given the number of freezes.  Let me know what times work best for you.

I will also send out a final blank draft sheet that shows all of the trades that have been made up to this point.  Incredibly, Heather is the only owner to still have her original first round pick!

A few draft anomalies are present this year:

• The PhoeGnomes, Armadillos, and Lannisters have two first round picks each.
• The Armadillos have received nine draft picks in trades.  They have traded away eight picks.
• Heather is the only owner to have not traded away at least one pick
• The Lannisters traded away six picks and received six in return.
• Kyle and Larry traded both their first and second round picks (but recouped them in other deals)
• At least one pick was traded in every round before 13 except for the fourth, where everyone has his or her original picks.

What are Elo ratings?

Elo ratings are named for Arpad Elo, a physics professor born in 1903. Elo ratings are most famous from their use in chess. Players are assigned a starting rating. This number is adjusted up or down as players win and lose matches.

In our fantasy league, each team is assigned a starting value of 1,500 points. The amount of points a team gains or loses depends on the quality of its opponent. If teams have the same rating, they will each gain or lose an average number of points (around 10). If one team is significantly better than another, it will gain fewer points for a win (perhaps 4). The loser will fall by the same number of points. This change reflects the difference in quality – the superior team gets less credit for defeating inferior competition. The weaker team is penalized less for losing to a better opponent.

The opposite happens in the case of an upset. If a much lower rated team wins, it will gain more points (15+) while the better team loses more points (-15). This unexpected result gives important new information about the quality of each team, so it accounts for a higher total number of points for defying expectations. If there is a tie, no points are awarded or subtracted.

Eventually, teams reach relatively stable ratings that represent their true talent levels. The key benefit of Elo ratings is that they incorporate opponent quality into the mathematics of rankings. Instead of assigning simple plus and minus point totals, the ratings evolve to reflect the level of competition.

What do different ratings mean in practical terms?

The difference in the ratings of two teams serves as a predictor of who will win a match. For example, if a team is rated 100 points higher than its opponent, it is expected to win 64% of the time. If the rating is 200 points higher, the team has a 76% chance of winning. The formula for calculating expected winning percentage is:

How did Elo ratings look for 2015?

There are two ways to look at Elo ratings. The first is to look at single-season ratings. These assume that each team begins a season at the same level.

Each team begins the season with a rating of 1,500. K and N are mathematical parameters that govern the elasticity of ratings. The ratings evolve as time progresses. In the first week, each team’s rating goes or down by 10 points. Compare this to the end of the season. Kyle’s rating increased by 12 points in week 25, while Heather dropped by 13 in another match. Jeff gained only 7 points for a win. These gains and losses reflect the quality of each team’s opponent.

There are several highlights shown in this table:

• The Lannisters achieved the highest rating for the season in week 18 after defeating the Kazoos.
• Rick suffered the lowest rating at 1,414 in week 19 after losing to the Legion.
• The Thunderwolves, Armadillos, and PhoeGnomes were all clustered around 1,500. This makes sense as they were a combined 34-34-7 (or, roughly, average).
• The Legion peaked in week 21 after defeating the Lannisters, but still finished well above average.

This chart shows how the single-year ratings evolved over time for each team:

• After a slow start, the PhoeGnomes and Thunderwolves were able to build momentum to end the season.
• The Goofballs were firmly in the middle of the pack before fading to close the year.
• The Legion and Lannisters each suffered losing streaks, but the Lannisters were able to rally to end the year.
• The Possums bottomed out in mid-August before winning several matches near the end
• The Armadillos were the most consistent team, hovering near 1,500 for most of the season.

All-Time Elo Ratings

In leagues that re-draft every year, single-season ratings make sense. However, our league features several freezes, teams retain their talent across seasons. The second way to look at Elo ratings is to carry them over from one year to the next. The math stays the same:

Several points stand out from this table:

• The Legion achieved the highest rating in league history in Week 13 this year. A victory over the Goofballs capped a long winning streak. Since information is transferred from year to year, the relative strength of Chris’s victories gave him a record-high peak value.
• The lowest rating (1,378) belongs to the PhoeGnomes, who reached bottom in Week 8 of 2015. Heather entered the year with a low rating (1,404) and suffered a series of defeats that pushed her number even farther down. However, she rallied through the end of the season to attain a final rating of 1,464. This was ahead of the Possums, Goofballs, and Kazoos.
• Rather than enter the year with an average rating of 1,500, the Goofballs and Kazoos received 50-point handicaps to better reflect their talent level after their first draft. Both teams started off well, but eventually faded somewhat, finishing with 1,444 and 1,427 ratings respectively.
• The Lannisters, PhoeGnomes, and Thunderwolves improved on their year-end 2014 season ratings.
• The largest single-season ratings jump came from the Lannisters from 2012 to 2013. They gained 139 points en-route to the league title. The Thunderwolves lost 105 points over that span.
• The Armadillos had an 82 point jump from 2013-2014. They also won the title.
• 2015 was the first year the Legion lost ratings points over a previous season. Despite losing close races for the title, the Legion gained 107 points over three seasons. This is more impressive considering the Legion were the Elo rating leaders during this time, and received few points for victories and greater penalties for losses.
• 2015 was the first year the PhoeGnomes gained ratings points from the previous season. After winning the 2011 title, Heather lost ground in each successive season before rebounding at the end of 2015.
• The Goofballs and [former] Kazoos have the best opportunity to make up ground. Their low ratings to end 2015 will give them larger boosts for wins in 2016.

The multi-year chart shows the fluctuations in Elo ratings over time:

• Since Week 9 in 2012, only the Thunderwolves and Lannisters have achieved an Elo rating higher than the Legion. The Lannisters held the lead for four weeks in 2014. The Thunderwolves overtook the Legion for two weeks in late 2012.
• After overtaking the Thunderwolves in Week 9, 2012, the Legion have lead the league in Elo for 91 out of 97 weeks (94%) and for 39 consecutive weeks entering 2016.
• The Legion lead the Lannisters by just 9 rating points going into 2016. At the end of 2014, the Legion led the Lannisters by 93 points and the Armadillos by 33 points.
• The PhoeGnomes were able to reverse a severe multi-year downward trend at the end of 2015. Heather’s first-year dominance is notable in 2011.
• Since a ratings explosion in the 2013 season, only the Armadillos, Legion, and Possums have achieved a higher rating than the Lannisters.

More Information

The following charts show more Elo information, including year-end and average ratings. Team highs and lows are also shown.

 

Future of Elo Ratings

In future League Updates, I will post updated in-season and all-time Elo ratings. I will also post the win probabilities for upcoming match-ups derived from each rating set.

After a few weeks of messing around with ESPN’s League Update settings, I decided to create this new site.  This page will be the home for all future League Updates, trade logs, guest posts, and other long-form content.

This site has several advantages over ESPN’s basic League Update screen:

1. More custom text options
2. Better font choices
3. The ability to host all kinds of images
4. Historical archiving, so you can review League Updates and other content after new posts appear
5. Automatic bullets and numbering
6. Special characters §
7. Spell check

In addition, it allows block quotes like this.

The main ESPN site will still be the place to view standings, update your lineups, and talk on the message boards.  This site will be the place to look for major updates and the content that used to appear under League Update.

When new content is posted here, I will add a link to the League Update space on the ESPN site.  Remember, the message boards will still be the main place to post polls and have discussions.

I hope everyone enjoys the new site.  It will make it much easier for me to post the detailed articles you enjoy.