Week 05 Elo Ratings

Two upsets rocked the league’s Elo ratings in Week 05.  Jeff lost the most points after a close battle with the Armadillos.  The PhoeGnomes were not far behind, losing almost 11 points to the Happy Hollidays.  Chris P. held on to second place in All-Time Elo after his victory over the Possums.  The Goofballs also enjoyed a nice boost, moving into sixth place:

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Week 06 offers several intriguing match-ups.  The Lannisters are heavy favorites over the Thunderwolves.  The Legion are also above 65% versus the Goofballs.  The closest match pits the Happy Hollidays against the Possums.  The second most competitive match-up is the Armadillos versus the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needs to rebound to keep building her Elo.  Larry looks to move closer to Chris P. and Jeff near the top of the league.

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Fewer than 13 points separate the top three teams.  A Lannister loss paired with a win by either the Armadillos or Legion will likely result in a new top Elo squad.  However, none of the leaders will gain many points with a victory, so the status-quo will continue if all win.

Week 05 League Update

Armadillos Edge Lannisters; Upsets Disrupt Standings

The fifth week of the fantasy season saw an anticipated match between the Lannisters and Armadillos.  Larry won the first battle of what may be a season-long war.  Meanwhile, the Happy Hollidays staged an upset over the PhoeGnomes.  The Goofballs and Legion also picked up victories, pushing the Thunderwolves and Possums farther down the leader boards.

LK Armadillos (3-0-1) vs.  JK Lannisters (4-0)

The week’s most interesting match saw the Lannisters and Armadillos battle for the early lead for first place.  Jeff had won four straight weeks to start the year.  Larry was also unbeaten with a single tie.  Both teams produced league-leading offensive stats.  The Armadillos and Lannisters tied for the league lead in RBI with 39.  Larry led the league with 16 home runs and Jeff tied with Chris for second with 13.  The Lannisters led the league in OBP while Larry was third.  He easily won SLG while Jeff finished third.  Overall, both teams put up monster numbers, but Larry had the slight power edge to take a 3-1-1 lead before looking at pitching.

CarterThe Armadillos were led by Rougned Odor and Chris Carter, who had three home runs each.  Four other Armadillos had two home runs, and Gregory Polanco and Mark Trumbo added one each.  Billy Hamilton contributed two steals to give Larry the easy category win.  However, Jeff was able to answer with excellent weeks from Robinson Cano with four home runs and nine RBI.  Bryce Harper added 13 walks.  Unfortunately for the Lannisters, the Armadillos were able to add just a few more home runs along with a higher overall SLG.

On pitching, both teams were evenly matched.  Jeff deployed as many starters as he could, and managed to win strikeouts.  However, Larry managed more wins despite fewer starters and close races for ERA and WHIP.  He was able to take both rate categories, which was enough to secure the win.  Jeff could have secured a tie with slightly better luck:  He was one RBI and one win away.  Given the disgraceful performance of Felix Hernandez and a rare Jacob deGrom dud outing, the Lannisters are left with thoughts of what might have been.  The Lannisters posted numbers good enough to have beaten any other team for the week by a comfortable margin.  The loss should give comfort to the Possums and Goofballs, who were defeated by the Lannisters despite posting numbers good enough to have won against other teams.

For now, the Armadillos have taken over first place and remain unbeaten.  The win also gives Larry the early edge in potential tie-breakers.  However, there are three more match-ups between the two teams, both of which remain title contenders.

CM Happy Hollidays (1-3) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (2-2)

The biggest upset of the week belonged to the Happy Hollidays, who were able to record their second win of the year against the PhoeGnomes.  Chris M. opened the season with a win before dropping three straight games.  Heather looked to continue to rebound after her loss to the Lannisters two weeks prior.  Unfortunately for Heather, Chris put together an excellent week despite managing while in Europe on vacation!

ZobristChris’s victory was led by his offense, which won four of five categories.  The star for the week was Ben Zobrist who had four home runs, 15 RBI, and five walks.  Francisco Lindor and Stephen Piscotty combined for 13 hits and two home runs.  Heather tried to counter with good weeks from several players, including the red-hot Jose Altuve.  However, Paul Goldschmidt managed just three hits and a .182 SLG.  Altuve’s four steals were easily enough to win the category (and lead the league) but the rest of Heather’s bats just weren’t working this week.  Chris took a solid win on offense.

On the pitching side, Heather was more competitive.  Jake Arrieta and Patrick Corbin were both excellent, combining for an ERA under 2.00 and a solid whip.  Madison Bumgarner continued to turn things around, striking out 10 in just 7.1 IP.  Chris was able to counter with a brilliant week from Marco Estrada, who threw 13 IP, struck out 11, and had a 1.38 ERA and .62 WHIP.  Heather was able to win strikeouts and wins, but her advantage in innings pitched did not translate into victories in ERA or WHIP.  Chris took both categories with a quality-over-quantity strategy.  Despite the 3-2 edge on pitching, Heather was unable to close the gap and Chris took a solid 6-4 win.  The improved offensive performance is good news for the Hollidays, who had been ice-cold lately.  Heather can take comfort in putting up good numbers that weren’t quite enough to pull out the win.

RK Possums (0-3-1) vs.  CP Legion (2-1-1)

Although the Lannisters and Armadillos had the best offensive numbers of the week, Chris P. put up numbers that were almost as good.  Chris tied for second in the league with 13 HR and 4 steals.  He was second outright in SLG, third in OBP, and tied for third in RBI.  Overall, this was good enough to take a dominant 5-0 victory over the Possums, who posted lackluster totals across the board.  Rick’s squad was last in RBI, OBP, and SLG.  He tied for last in HR.  Josh Donaldson had a miserable week, going just 4/24 with a .167 SLG.  Chris responded with a monster week from Joc Pederson, who had three home runs.  Seven other Legion players got into the act, including Christian Yelich who had three homers and a steal.  The Legion’s part-timers made the most of their opportunities, too:  Justin Bour and Kolton Wong had two home runs in just six at-bats.Pederson

On pitching, neither side was outstanding.  The Legion endured dreadful weeks from Gerrit Cole and Matt Moore.  These were offset by Drew Pomeranz and heavy use for reliever Steve Cishek, who saved three games.  The Possums’ aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander combined for a 12.60 ERA over 10 innings.  However, the Possums’ bullpen was very good.  They recorded five saves, and won the category.  They also helped Rick win WHIP.  However, this wasn’t enough to help the Possums overcome their offensive deficit.  Chris took the comfortable victory and improved to 3-1-1.  The offensive performance is even more impressive considering the Legion dealt away many of their best offensive weapons.  The development of players like Pederson will determine how quickly the Legion return as title front-runners.  If they can improve their pitching, they may be able to skip rebuilding entirely and compete today.

KG Capital City Goofballs (1-3) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-3-1)

The week’s final match saw the Goofballs battle the Thunderwolves.  Both teams needed victories to get back on track, and each team’s offense answered the call.  Kyle and Kevin both had solid home run totals, but Kyle won the day thanks to bid weeks from Jonathan Lucroy and Brandon Phillips.  Kyle had 12 total home runs, though Kevin made it close thanks to a three-homer week from Yoenis Cespedes.  Brandon Belt drew seven walks for the Goofballs, who used a staggering twenty-two players for the week.  Of these 22, only two did not record a hit (in a combined five at-bats).  Kevin was unafraid to dig deep for talent, and he was rewarded with wins in OBP, SLG, and RBI.  The two teams tied in steals, but Kevin held a 3-1-1 advantage before pitching.

ArcherKyle fared better on the pitching side and led the league in strikeout and saves.  Alex Colome was especially good, recording four saves for the Thunderwolves.  Michael Wacha and Aaron Nola struck out 26 in 15 IP.  However, Yordano Ventura had a terrible week, and Edinson Volquez wasn’t much better in two starts.  Kevin was able to take WHIP and ERA by virtue of strong performances from Chris Archer and Jeff Samardzija.  This was enough to give Kevin a well-earned second victory for the season.  The Goofballs were able to right the ship after several weeks of bad luck.  For the Thunderwolves, the improved offensive performance is a good sign.  However, they need to put together a complete week to earn their first victory of the year.

Next Week

The week’s most interesting match-up pairs the first-place Armadillos with the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needs to rebound and Larry wants to consolidate his grip on the lead.  These teams both pile up strikeouts, so hitting will likely decide the victory.

The Thunderwolves are still looking for their first win, but face the Lannisters.  Jeff’s team has dominated this match-up through the years, but anything can happen.  The Goofballs and Legion meet in yet another interesting match.  Kevin has shown his versatility, but the Legion may be stronger than we thought despite their trades.  Finally, the Possums will face the Hollidays, who hope to start a winning streak.

Rules Note

This is a reminder that relief pitchers can’t be used in starter slots.  If the reliever is primarily a starter, this is fine.  However, if he is working from the bullpen, he must be in a RP slot.  Please make sure you aren’t inadvertently using a fourth reliever.

Week 04 Elo Ratings

After four weeks of play, the league’s Elo ratings are beginning to stabilize.  The league’s leaders all gained points this week, with the PhoeGnomes continuing to rack up the most additional points.

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The Lannisters are threatening to become the first team to breach the 1,600 boundary this season.  The Legion were also able to rally and stay just ahead of the surging Armadillos.  Chris P. is the biggest favorite of the week, with a 71% change to beat the Possums.

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Jeff and Larry are close, with the Lannisters holding a slim 55%/45% advantage.  The PhoeGnomes and Happy Hollidays have similar odds.  However, the closest match belongs to the Goofballs and Thunderwolves, who are a virtual tie at 51%/49%.

Week 04 League Update: Favorites Win Despite Spirited Challenges

HP PhoeGnomes (2-1) vs. RK Possums (0-2-1)

The Possums entered their contest with the PhoeGnomes as heavy underdogs.  However, Rick was able to put together a solid overall performance and challenge for the victory.  On offense, he enjoyed a trio of two-home run weeks from Josh Donaldson, Michael Conforto, and Albert Pujols.  However, Heather was able to counter with a massive four-home run week from Nolan Arenado.  For the Possums, Xander Bogaerts contributed three steals, giving Rick and easy category win.  However, three other categories fell to the PhoeGnomes thanks to Arenado.  Rick was able to win SLG, but faced a 3-2 deficit.Arenado

Heather gained further separation on pitching.  Her staff threw just two more innings than the Possums but recorded 12 more strikeouts.  Four PhoeGnomes pitchers threw more than 10 strikeouts, including a monster week from Madison Bumgarner.  Noah Syndergaard was also effective, despite giving up seven earned runs in 12.1 IP.  Max Scherzer was a bright spot for the Possums, with 16 strikeouts over 13 IP.  However, Ricky Nolasco gave up nine earned runs in 13 IP, which gave Heather an easy win in ERA.  The Possums were able to take WHIP and tie saves, but the damage was done and Heather secured a 6-3-1 win.  The PhoeGnomes were able to bounce back after a difficult week versus the Lannisters.  The Possums are left searching for their first victory.

JK Lannisters (3-0) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (1-2)

RoarkComing off three consecutive wins, the Lannisters faced off against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to get back on track against the league’s early leader.  Unfortunately, Jeff’s pitching staff had other ideas.  After several seasons of relying on their offense, the Lannisters have instead leaned on pitching early in the season.  Tanner Roark continued his early dominance, allowing how runs and just two hits over seven innings.  Five other Lannister starters allowed two earned runs or fewer in their starts.  Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg combined to strike out 13.  These performances gave the Lannisters comfortable margins in strikeouts, wins, ERA, and WHIP.  The Happy Hollidays weren’t able to mount a challenge for saves, either, and Jeff recorded a comfortable 5-0 sweep.

On offense, Chris M. had some room to maneuver as the Lannisters suffered a down week.  However, the Hollidays suffered the lowest OBP and SLG in the league.  They were next-to-last in RBI and home runs as well.  The Lannisters fared slightly better, with eight home runs.  However, they barely cleared .400 SLG and had RBI and OBP problems.  Neither team was able to gain much momentum on offense, but the Lannisters were bailed out by David Ortiz, who had a fantastic week.  Mike Trout added seven RBI and two homers.  The Cardinals-heavy Hollidays squad struggled outside of Stephen Piscotty, and dropped another five categories.  The Lannisters earned a 10-0 sweep, though the component stats were not high enough to merit much celebration.  Still, the workmanlike victory is the kind the Lannisters will need if they hope to challenge for the title again.

KK Thunderwolves (0-2-1) vs. CP Legion (2-1-1)

The week’s most bizarre stats belonged to the Thunderwolves and Legion.  Despite hitting just one home run, the Thunderwolves were almost able to knock off the Legion.  Kyle lacked any real power with just the single homer and a sub-.400 SLG.  However, five players tallied steals, and Kyle took OBP after a sub-part Legion effort.  Somehow, Kyle managed to lead the league in RBI despite the single home run.  Twelve Thunderwolves players had at least one RBI, while players like Ryan Braun, Addison Russell, and Mitch Moreland had at least four each.  Despite showing almost now power, the Thunderwolves were only down 2-3 thanks to their inexplicable RBI count.

GreinkeUnfortunately for Kyle, much of his work on offense was undone by a terrible week for Zach Greinke.  The Diamondbacks’ ace gave up nine earned runs and 19 hits in 13.2 IP.  Edison Volquez was even worse, allowing eight earned runs in just five innings pitched.  Similar efforts from Yordano Ventura and Chase Anderson gave Chris easy wins in ERA and WHIP.  The Legion also had several two-start pitchers who performed well and piled up strikeouts.  This gave Chris secure wins in four categories, and earned him a 6-4 victory.  The win was another needed step for the Legion, who hope to compete despite a depleted roster.  Kyle has to be frustrated with his team’s start, given the effort he put forth in the off-season.  The offense continues to struggle, and the team’s pitching core has not performed well thus far.

LK Armadillos (2-0-1) vs. KG Goofballs (1-2)

The most competitive match of the week saw the Armadillos edge the Goofballs.  Kevin came up just a home run or two short of pulling off the upset of the 2014 champs.  Both teams performed remarkable well on pitching.  The Armadillos’ WHP was below 0.90 (best in the league) and the Goofballs were right behind them.  Larry had the second-lowest ERA to the Lannisters, and Kevin was in the mix as well.  The Armadillos took saves, but the Goofballs were able to easily pace the league in strikeouts.  Kevin’s 86 were the best in the league and more than double the total of the Happy Hollidays.  David Price, in particular, was phenomenal with 17 strikeouts in 15 IP.  The staff threw a lot of innings and enjoyed a corresponding number of wins.  This gave Kevin two categories to Larry’s three before accounting for hitting.

StantonThe clubs had the highest two SLG in the league.  Kevin took the category by a narrow margin, but a huge week from Giancarlo Stanton gave Larry the edge in OBP.  This meant that HR, RBI, and steals would decide the week.  Thanks to Stanton, Larry had a strong home run base, but Kevin answered with a distributed attack from Freddie Freeman, Gerardo Parra, and Logan Forsythe.  The two teams tied, with Larry taking a slim lead in steals and RBI.  This was enough to secure a 6-3-1 victory for the week for the Armadillos.  However, Kevin would have won with another home run and three RBI.  Kevin left a few home runs on the bench for the week, but none on Sunday.  He can take some consolation that the Armadillos left four home runs and 11 RBIs on the bench on Sunday alone.  The Armadillos remained unbeaten, and the Goofballs are left searching for better luck.

Upcoming Games

This week, the Armadillos hope to keep their momentum going against the Lannisters.  Jeff’s squad has struggled on offense and sometimes struggles against Larry’s high strikeout totals.  This week is the first of many battles between two teams expected to contend for the title.

After a nice bounce-back win, Heather hopes to keep things rolling against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hasn’t been able to recapture his Week 01 magic, and will need better offense against the PhoeGnomes.  Heather remains a threat on both offense and pitching.

The Thunderwolves look for their first win against the Goofballs.  Kevin is likely frustrated with his luck thus far, and hopes that Kyle’s bats stay cool.  Meanwhile, the Possums want to pick up their first win against the Legion.  Chris P. hopes to build momentum and keep the Possums down.

Week 03 League Update

This week’s league update was written by Larry.  Jeff is extremely sick and not feeling well, but he hopes to be back next week.

RK Possums (0-2) vs. KK Thunderwolves (0-2)

The Possums and the Thunderwolves were both looking for their first victory of the young season, but neither team could pull out a win.  Rick won homers, RBI, ERA , WHIP, and  saves.  Kyle countered with wins in the other three hitting categories plus pitching wins.  The week was determined by Kyle’s 59-56 advantage in K’s.  That tied up the week and left both teams underwhelmed with identical 0-2-1 records.

Colby Rasmus led the way for the Possums with 4 HR and 10 RBI.  Off season trade acquisition Josh Donaldson added 2 HR and 6 RBI.  The artist previously known as B.J. (apologies and RIP to Prince) managed the lone steal of the week for Rick.

The Wolves got strong offensive performances from Jason Heyward (10 for 29 with 5 RBI and 3 SB) and Nellie Cruz (2 HR & 7 RBI).  Pitchers were led by another trade acquisition, Yordano Ventura with 2 wins and a 2.25 ERA.  Chase Anderson,  a  local Wichita Falls native who started off well, was pounded this week, giving up 19 hits and 10 earned runs in just 9 innings.  Finally, Gerrit Cole went 6 scoreless innings with 7 K’s and was promptly traded!

KG Goofballs (0-2) vs. CM Happy Hollidays

The Goofballs got their first victory by beating the Happy Hollidays.  Kevin dominated the hitting categories by taking 4 categories.  KG led the week in homers with 15 and was second overall with 37 RBI.  Chris M. was able to take OBP with a stunning .380 good for second place overall.  The pitching stats were much closer with KG winning K’s just 39-36 and wins just 2-1.  The two teams tied with 3 saves each.  CM won ERA over KG’s atrocious 7.16.  The win by Kevin left the two teams tied with identical 1-2 records.

Cardinals OF’s Grichuk and Piscotty were hitting stars for the Hollidays and Jay Bruce pitched in with a homer and two steals.  Brad Ziegler led the pitchers with two saves.

Wellington Castillo made KG look very good with a monster week of 5 HR, 9 RBI, and even had a SB.  Steven Souza had a couple of homers and Maikel Franco contributed 3 HR and 8 RBI.  Pitching-wise Jeremy Jeffress had 2 saves (despite a (9.00 ERA), but the rest of the staff was ineffective giving up 39 earned runs in 49 innings.

JK Lannisters (2-0) vs. HP PhoeGnomes (2-0)

The undefeated Lannisters and PhoeGnomes squared off with the Lannisters winning with an impressive showing.  Jeff’s squad was outstanding on offense with a 13-7 edge in homers and a 44-31 margin in RBI’s.  The Lannisters also rolled to a .580 to .362 SLG victory.  Jeff  led the league in all 3 of those  hitting categories for the week.  But HP won steals and was at least within shouting distance in OBP.  Jeff powered his way to winning 4 of the 5 pitching stats.  He led the entire league in K’s (74) and saves (8).  Hp had a very strong 0.922 WHIP to edge JK’s 0.987.  But anticipated battle was too one-sided this time around.

Goldschmidt and Bautista each had 6 RBI, and Altuve raced to three SB to lead the PhoeGnomes offense.  Jeff’s offensive trinity — Harper, Trout, and Machado — combined for 7 homers, 18 RBI, and 25 hits.  Lucas Duda made a run at joining their club with 3 homers and 7 RBIs.  In pitching, Heather had a no-hitter  by Jake Arrieta as well as strong outings by Sale, Syndergaard, and Walker. But Jeff countered with great games from Quintana, Lester, Hammel, Strasburg, and
Tanner  Roark  (who was promptly waived).  Jeff’s staff easily won K’s for the whole week with an eye-popping 74 whiffs.

CP Legion (1-1) vs. LK Armadillos (2-0)

The strangest matchup of the week involved the Armadillos and Legion.  Chris led in most categories for much of the week.  CP easily won steals, OBP, and saves.  He eventually edged out a win in RBIs 29-28. The Armadillos won HR , K’s, ERA, and wins.  That meant 8 categories were decided and two still in play on Sunday  night (SLG and WHIP).  After Carlos Carrasco was injured and left his start early on Sunday, it left LK hoping for a strong bullpen performance to try to turn WHIP.  But the bullpen had a rocky day and WHIP was lost.  RBI’s were in play early, but CP persevered there.  The Armadillos only chance came down to SLG.  Almost every game was finished and it looked as though the Legion would prevail and deal the Armadillos their first loss of the year.  But miraculously the Pirates game went into extra innings and Starling Marte was able to get a hit in his 7th and final at bat to pull LK’s team into a tie for the week.  It was just the latest of many bitter battles between the two teams (many of which have resulted in ties) over the past seasons.

CP got homers from 6 different hitters and steals from 6 different players as well as  7 RBIs from Ryan Braun (who was promptly traded).  LK got 5 HR and 10 RBIs from a surging Anthony Rizzo.  Stanton added a couple of homers, but LK’s catchers were a combined 2-24!

Steve Cishek came off the scrap pile to notch 3 saves (nice pickup by Chris P) but the starters had an up and down week.  For the Armadillos, Kershaw was winless but had good stats.  Drew Smyly went 15 inn with 17 K’s and only one earned run.  But LK’s usually reliable bullpen had an off week and it proved costly.

Week 02 Elo Ratings

The second week of the season saw all four favorites win their match-ups.  All three teams above 1,500 had gains and Heather moved closer to being rated above average for the long term.  Remember, these ratings are cumulative across seasons.

Week 02 Elo 1

As expected, the Lannisters has the smallest gain relative to the other winners.  The Possums lost the fewest points.  Chris P. saw a nice rebound, while the Goofballs fell even further behind the Thunderwolves.

Week 02 Elo 2

Week 03 offers several intriguing match-ups.  The PhoeGnomes have a chance to rise above 1,500 with a win over the Lannisters.  Both the Possums and Thunderwolves can pick some points with a win, especially since they are relatively evenly matched.  The same can be said for the Goofballs and Happy Hollidays.  Finally, the Armadillos may overtake the Legion for second with a victory.  However, Chris P. could return to first with a win and a Lannisters’ loss.

Overall, the week promises several more close contests.  Only the Lannisters are heavy favorites, and this is somewhat deceptive since the PhoeGnomes are playing at a higher level than their rating would indicate.  The other three match-ups are all within 56%/44% or closer, meaning the results are essentially coin flips.

Week 02 League Update: Favorites Win, PhoeGnomes & Armadillos Stellar

The second week of the fantasy season saw three lopsided wins for the favorites.  The Armadillos romped their way to a rare 10-0 sweep of the Thunderwolves.  Heather put together a phenomenal performance to top the Goofballs.  The Legion righted the ship with strong pitching versus the Happy Hollidays.  Only the Possums were able to threaten an upset, but they were done in by Bryce Harper and the Lannisters.  It was a business-like week for the top of the league, and the stage is set for several interesting early match-ups in week 03.

LK Armadillos (1-0) vs. KK Thunderwolves (0-1)

The Armadillos posted the week’s most dominant stat line against the Thunderwolves.  Larry had a strong offensive base with eight players hitting at least one home run.  Mark Trumbo was a surprise with three in 16 at-bats.  Rougned Odor also provided good production from the second base position with eight hits and seven RBIs.  The Armadillo attack was balanced up and down the lineup.

Week 02 OdorThe Thunderwolves continued to struggle offensively.  Kyle had the fewest steals in the league and was near the bottom in OBP, SLG, and HR.  However, the Thunderwolves maintained a competitive RBI total that fell just short.  The lack of power must be concerning to Kyle.  After investing heavily on the pitching side in the draft and through freezes, the Thunderwolves have not had the offensive firepower for the past couple of seasons.  If the trend continues, Kyle may need to address his struggles through trades or waiver pick-ups.

On the pitching side, neither the Armadillos nor the Thunderwolves had strong ERA or WHIP numbers compared to the stellar efforts from the PhoeGnomes, Legion, Goofballs, or Lannisters.  Both teams pitched about the same number of innings, but the Armadillos took strikeout, wins and saves despite similar rate stats.  Aaron Nola’s horrible 12.0 IP spoiled a quality week for Michael Wacha (12.0 IP, 11 hits, 1 ER) for Kyle.  Aaron Sanchez was a standout for the Armadillos – he allowed just two earned runs over 13 IP.  Craig Kimbrel led the way for the Armadillos bullpen, and helped secure a second five category sweep.  The Armadillos were hard to stop this week, and their combined attack got the job done.  The Thunderwolves are left looking for answers, but Kyle has proven that he is unafraid to make a deal to improve his team.

CP Legion (0-1) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (1-0)

After a rough first week against the PhoeGnomes, the Legion looked to rebound against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to carry over his early success into week two against one of the league’s best teams.  Unfortunately for the league’s newest owner, Chris P. unleashed the best pitching performance in the league en route to a clean 7-3-0 win.  Both teams took a quality-over-quantity approach with only one two-start pitcher between the squads.  Anchoring the Legion was Vince Velasquez, whose three-hit complete game also featured 16 strikeouts.  The Legion used 12 pitchers for the week and only four of them (three starters) allowed earned runs.  This gave Chris P. the best WHIP in the league, a tie for the best ERA and the second most strikeouts.  The Hollidays struggled to keep up in anything other than wins and saves.  The Legion were able to take both of those categories, as well, giving Chris P. the five-category sweep.  The performance was one of the best the league has seen in some time, especially given the number of wins and strikeouts the Legion were able to achieve with a limited number of starters.

Week 02 SpringerOn offense, neither team was able to get much traction.  The Hollidays were marginally better thanks to a pair of two-home run weeks from Randal Grichuk and Matt Holliday.  Francisco Lindor added two steals and Chris M. was able to win all three counting categories for the week.  Unfortunately for the Hollidays, the Legion were slightly better in the OBP and SLG categories.  The Legion are clearly feeling the offensive dip after trading away several members of their core to the PhoeGnomes.  George Springer and Ryan Braun were able to keep the Legion competitive, but they will need more help to remain in contention against better offensive teams.  Ultimately, the Legion were able to pull out a solid win.  The Hollidays will need to level their performance in the coming weeks.

JK Lannisters (1-0) vs. RK Possums (0-1)

After a tough battle against the Goofballs to open the season, the Lannisters faced another bitter struggle against the Possums.  Although the Possums have the league’s lowest Elo rating, they have traditionally posted a match-up problem against the defending champs.  This week was no different, and Rick threw everything he had into the hotly-contested battle.  Both teams posted huge power numbers.  The Possums had ten players with a home run.  Albert Pujols and Ian Kinsler were at the top of the list with two each, paired with 11 RBI.  Josh Donaldson led the Possums’ regulars in SLG, and helped propel the team to a victory in the category.  Good weeks from Wilson Ramos and Jeremy Hazelbaker also helped Rick win RBI.

Unfortunately for the Possums, the Lannisters also posted great offensive numbers for the week.  The Lannisters won OBP by a safe margin, and took steals thanks to Jason Kipnis.  However, the standouts for the week were JD Martinez and Bryce Harper.  The two combined for six home runs, 18 RBI, and two steals.  This gave the Lannisters a tie in HR, and a 2-3 deficit before pitching.

After struggling for most of last season against unfavorable pitching match-ups, the Possums looked to adapt and throw more innings this season.  This process gave the Possums the highest strikeout and wins totals in the league for the week, but left the team vulnerable in ERA and WHIP.  The Lannisters capitalized thanks to strong weeks from Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.  Jeff took ERA and WHIP without much of a fight.  He also piled up more saves, and buried the Possums 9-5 in this variable category.  This gave the Lannisters a close 5-4-1 victory.

Week 02 HarperAt one point on Sunday, it looked like the Possums were heading for a tie.  Rick led the HR category late in the day, but Bryce Harper’s 10th inning swing turned the category into a tie.  The Possums can take some comfort that they did not leave any home runs on their bench on Sunday.  Also, Rick would have beaten all the other teams besides the Armadillos and PhoeGnomes.  The Possums are looking better even if the results are not yet noticeable in the standings.  For the Lannisters, the win capped another difficult struggle.

HP PhoeGnomes (1-0) vs. KG Capital City Goofballs (0-1)

In the first week of the season, the Goofballs faced the defending champs.  Their luck didn’t get any better against the improved PhoeGnomes.  Heather put together the most complete week in the league, and looks red-hot going into her battle with the Lannisters.  The PhoeGnomes pitching was just a fraction behind the Legion while her offense paced the league in several categories.

Week 02 SaleThe PhoeGnomes pitched an average number of innings, but achieved outstanding results, especially on the rate side.  Chris Sale was on fire, pitching a two hit/no walk shutout.  Gio Gonzalez was almost as good but over fewer innings.  The bullpen was clicking as well, finishing third in the league in saves.  Heather easily took these three categories, but the Goofballs were unwilling to concede anything further.  Kevin threw five more innings, but logged 13 more strikeouts.  He also took wins, behind strong performances from Jake Odorizzi and Marcus Stroman.  This gave Heather a slim 3-2 lead before adding hitting.

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, Heather turned in one of the better offensive weeks in the league.  Her 14 homeruns and 44 RBI were easily the best.  They also contributed to a solid 0.500 SLG.  The bulk of the work came from Nolan Arenado (4 HR/12 RBI), Jose Altuve (3/7), Chris Davis (3/8) and Andrew McCutchen (2/3).  Kevin had seven players with home runs, including two each from Brandon Belt and Yoenis Cespedes.  It wasn’t enough to turn the tide, though, and Heather rolled on to an 8-2 win.  The loss puts the Goofballs and 0-2, but they have performed better statistically than the Legion, Happy Hollidays, Thunderwolves, and Possums.  At some point, they have to hope that the results catch up to the process.

Next week:

The PhoeGnomes huge win over the Goofballs sets Heather up for a key early match-up against the Lannisters.  Heather’s new additions are paying immediate dividends, and she knows how important it is to log wins early and secure tie-breakers.  The Lannisters are also keenly aware of this possibility, and will use every available resource to defend their title.  Elsewhere, the Armadillos face their rivals, the Legion.  Larry has avoided early scares in a solid start.  The Legion will have to improve their offense if they want to keep pace.

The Goofballs face the Happy Hollidays in an expansion battle.  Kevin will hope to take out his frustrations on the Hollidays, who showed vulnerability in Week 02.  Finally, barring a tie, either the Thunderwolves or Possums will pick up their first win of the season in their match.  The Possums have deserved better in the first two weeks, and the Thunderwolves will do anything they can to avoid falling to 0-3.

Week 01 Elo Ratings Update

This is the first of a weekly report on Elo ratings.  If you are not sure what these are, please check out the introduction I posted last month.

The season’s opening week provided new insight into each team’s true talent level.

Elo1

The largest Elo gain belongs to the PhoeGnomes, who moved up almost 13 points after defeating the Legion.  Chris M. also moved closer to the 1,500 level with his win over the Thunderwolves.  The Armadillos and Lannisters saw smaller gains against weaker-rated opponents.  Remember, as your Elo rating rises, the amount of points you win for defeating inferior teams decreases.  You also lose more points when an underdog wins.

These ratings give the following probabilities going into Week 02:

Elo2

As expected, the Lannisters are a heavy favorite against the Possums.  The Possums have just a 31% chance to win.  The Thunderwolves are also heavy underdogs to the Armadillos.  The Goofballs/PhoeGnomes match-up reads as a toss-up, but it’s important to remember that Heather’s new additions will take time to influence the team’s Elo rating.

Chris P. and Larry are also heavy favorites over the Happy Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  It will be interesting to see how these match-ups go.  The fact that the league’s best Elo team (the Lannisters) versus the lowest (the Possums) yields only a 70% chance of victory for the favorite shows how competitive the league is.

Week 01 League Update: Leaders Threatened; New Powers Emerge

Week 01 League Update:  Leaders Threatened; New Powers Emerge

The first week of the fantasy season is complete.  Each match-up was competitive, and unpredictable weather and performances provided ample excitement.  Injuries took their toll as well, and teams were forced to look deep into the waiver pool for reinforcements.  This was the most competitive Week 1 in recent memory.  Every team came prepared to compete.

Legion vs PhoeGnomes

One of the off-season’s most active clubs was the PhoeGnomes.  Heather added several win-now players while the Legion launched a rebuilding program.  Chris traded several veterans to the PhoeGnomes including Andrew McCutchen, Jose Bautista, and Aroldis Chapman. In return, Heather traded away the promising but unproven
duo of George Springer and Yasiel Puig.  A second deal sent Paul Goldschmidt to the PhoeGnomes for a draft pick and player-to-be-named-later.  (Note:  For fairness reasons, the Commissioner knows and approved of the PTBNL options.)
CutchThese transactions gave Heather a huge boost in offense for the next few years.  The Legion are trying to go younger after several years at the top.  Did they give up too much, too soon?  The answer depends on the development of Springer and Puig, Chris’s ability to draft with multiple picks, and the age-related declines of the veterans he traded away.  For the PhoeGnomes, the new additions make Heather an instant title contender after a rebound last season.

The two teams met in the first week of the season.  Heather’s new arrivals paid immediate dividends, hitting four total home runs with 12 RBI and a steal.  Springer and Puig were also effective for the Legion, hitting one homer each with a pair of steals and seven RBI.  However, Heather’s returning big bats (Chris Davis and Corey Dickerson) offered ample power to carry the PhoeGnomes to a victory in home runs and SLG.  Heather also won OBP, though neither team had a standout number.  The teams tied in RBI despite Heather’s home run lead, and Chris took a surprise win in steals.  Overall, Heather held a 3-1-1 advantage on offense.

The Legion posted much better numbers on the mound.  His team ERA of 2.72 was second in the league to the Lannisters.  This easily topped Heather’s 4.80 total.  Chris took WHIP as well, but the PhoeGnomes managed larger counting totals.  Chris Sale and Jake Arrieta helped the PhoeGhones build a large advantage in innings pitched.  This translated to more wins, strikeouts, and saves.  Despite having five different relievers record appearances, the Legion were held to a single save.  Heather was able to win three more categories and record a solid 6-3-1 record for the week.

The win serves notice to the league that the balance of power may be tipping toward the PhoeGnomes and away from the Legion.  After so many years at the top of the league, is it possible that the Legion are no longer contenders?  Are the PhoeGnomes really on the verge of true contention?  How each team follows up next week will help answer these questions.

Lannisters vs Goofballs

SchwarberLast year’s champions, the Lannisters, needed a victory to keep up with the PhoeGnomes.  Standing in their way were the Goofballs.  After a season which included some of the most astute pickups in the league, Kevin seemed poised to take another step forward after completing his first off-season with a full set of draft picks.  Unfortunately, much of Kevin’s hard work was undone when Kyle Schwarber went down with a season-ending knee injury.  The loss is a huge blow for the Goofballs who were counting on Schwarber to be their catcher and outfielder.  Now, Schwarber will lose his catcher eligibility after this season to go along with the lost production.

StoryFortunately for the Goofballs, an unlikely hero emerged for the week:  Trevor Story.  The Rockies’ shortstop hit seven home runs (five while in the lineup) and tallied eight RBI for the week.  Steven Souza Jr also had three home runs, and in total eleven Goofballs hit homers for the week.  Kevin had the highest total in the league along with the highest SLG.  However, the Lannisters would not go quietly and hit sixteen home runs of their own.  They were also more efficient with the league’s second-highest OBP and tied the Goofballs in RBI.  Robinson Cano led the way with four home runs, and seven other Lannisters also went deep.  Jean Segura supplied an unexpected jolt of energy with two home runs and a steal.  The Lannisters were happy to get something from a Diamondback, after AJ Pollock went down for the season with an elbow injury.

The Lannisters were able to take control on the pitching side.  After spending much of last year streaming pitchers and trying dozens of names in the lineup, things came together for at least one week.  Felix Hernandez allowed one run over 13 IP, and the Lannister bullpen put together the highest saves total in the league by far.  The Lannisters led the league in ERA and saves and were near the top in WHIP.  Kevin had more quantity, but were unable to pick up an additional win.  Ultimately, this gave the Lannisters a hard-earned 5-3-2 win.

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Both the Goofballs and the Lannisters would have beaten every other team in the league for the week.  The loss is a disappointment for Kevin, especially when paired with the Schwarber injury.  The discovery of Story will lessen the blow.  Meanwhile, the Lannisters showed why they are still the most dangerous offense in the league.  They were able to withstand the Goofball’s best effort and start the season with a win.

Thunderwolves vs Happy Hollidays

The week’s biggest upset came from the Happy Holidays, who were able to defeat the Thunderwolves.  Chris M’s team entered the year as an unknown, but opened the season with a strong offensive output that overshadowed a less-inspiring performance on the pitching side.  Matt Kemp was the Holliday’s’ unlikely hero with three home runs and ten RBI.  Jay Bruce got into the act as well with a pair of home runs and David Wright contributed two steals.  The Hollidays had the best OBP in the league and finished behind just the Goofballs and Lannisters in SLG.  This was enough for a five-category sweep of the Thunderwolves, who couldn’t get anything going on offense.

BruceOn pitching, neither team was effective.  Both squads had ERAs over 5.00, easily the worst in the league.  Both WHIPs were abysmal as well, but Kyle was able to take both rate categories.  He also took saves – the Hollidays were blanked.  However, Chris M. was able to dominate wins.  Oddly, three of the Hollidays’ five wins were from the bullpen.  Instead of picking up saves, they were entering close games and accumulating wins.  They were also able to win the strikeout battle and record a solid 7-3 opening victory for the new owner.  The Thunderwolves won’t be happy with this result, but can take comfort that their pitching performances will eventually level out.  The offense remains a concern.  Chris M. will need to keep an eye on his bullpen and finding reliable offensive producers, but for now he has earned a great introductory win and sits at the top of the league.

Armadillos vs Possums

The final match of the week paired the Armadillos and Possums.  Rick finished at the bottom of the league last year, but the aggregate stats told a different story.  The Possums were not among the league’s worst in several categories and seemed to be hurt by bad luck on the pitching side.  He hoped to start the season right against the consistent Armadillos, who executed an excellent draft plan to improve their team.  In retrospect, the Possums had a good draft, too.  Rick made several good moves that weren’t as flashy as some, but showed a solid plan was in place.

Unfortunately for the Possums, they did not find initial luck on the offensive side.  The Armadillos put in a solid overall performance with the third best RBI total in the league.  They also had good SLG and OBP, and led the league in steals.  The Possums were not able to keep pace, and had the league’s worst OBP and just one steal.  However, they showed some power and actually tied for third in RBI too.

verlanderOn pitching, the teams were more evenly matched.  In fact, they tied in wins and saves.  Rick had a slight edge in WHIP, but the Armadillos took both ERA and strikeouts.  The Armadillos threw almost 20 more innings than the Possums thanks to a series of rainouts and other problems.  This gave Larry the lead in strikeouts, and the pitchers were effective enough to have a good ERA total.  In total, this gave Larry a 6-1-3 win.  However, Rick showed enough on pitching to win some other match-ups if the offense can come around.  They did not play like a last place team, and the Armadillos were pressed to keep pace with the Lannisters and PhoeGnomes.

Overall, the first week offered considerable excitement and some outstanding performances.  Next week, the PhoeGnomes try to add more evidence to the case that they are the league’s favorite against the Goofballs.  The Possums road doesn’t get any easier against the Lannisters, though the Possums have historically been competitive against the defending champs.  The Happy Hollidays want to keep their early momentum in an interesting match against the Legion.  Finally, the Thunderwolves will have to figure things out against the Armadillos.

Tomorrow I will post the official Elo ratings for each team to reflect last week’s performance.  It will also have the implied chance of winning for each team’s new match-up!

2016 Trade Log

This post will track all trades with future considerations for the 2016 season.

2016-03-19
RK 2016 Round 06 pick (Joe Ross)
– for –
CP 2017 Round 05 pick

2016-04-03
CP Paul Goldschmidt
– for –
HP 2017 Round 01 Pick
HP PTBNL – Noah Syndergaard
Must me announced prior to the World Series – players are known to Commissioner.

2016-05-17
LK Matt Carpenter
– for –
KK Ian Desmond
KK 2017 Round 06 Pick

2016-06-05
LK Roberto Osuna
– for –
CP 2017 Round 04 Pick or CP 2017 Round 06 Pick
Larry gets the Round 04 pick if he finished behind or tied with Chris.  Otherwise, he gets Round 06.

2016-06-12
CP Eduardo Nunez
CP Steven Wright
– for –
HP 2017 Round ?? Pick
If Nunez reaches 20/20 and Heather freezes him, Legion get Round 04 Pick
If Nunez does not reach 20/20 and Heather freezes him, Legion get Round 05 Pick
If Heather does not freeze Nunez, Legion get Round 06 Pick

2016-08-08
LK Carlos Gomez
LK Kenta Maeda
LK 2017 Round 21 Pick
– for –
KK Alex Colome

2017-02-02
LK Daniel Murphy
LK Jeanmar Gomez
– for –
KK Mark Melancon

2017-02-02
LK Rougned Odor
LK Ian Desmond
– for –
KK Daniel Murphy
KK 2017 Round 02 Pick

2017-02-02
RK Adam Jones
– for –
KK 2017 Round 09 Pick

2017-02-02
CP Jonathan Villar
CP Noah Syndergaard
CP 2017 Round 07 Pick
CP 2017 Round 14 Pick
– for –
LK Carlos Correa
LK Joey Gallo
LK 2017 Round 05 Pick
LK 2017 Round 08 Pick
LK 2017 Round 15 Pick

2017-02-02
RK 2017 Round 03 Pick
– for –
CP Joey Gallo

2017-02-02
CP 2017 Round 06 Pick
-for –
KK Gerrit Cole