Week 10 League Update

Goofballs, Lannisters Return to Form; Possums Keep Rolling; Armadillos Vanquish Legion

KK Thunderwolves (1-7-1) vs.  RK Possums (4-4-1)

The Possums entered with the week hoping to continue their winning streak.  Kyle hoped to stop a losing streak and get back on track.  Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, it was the Possums who completed their objective.  Kyle relied on a strong pitching attack to carry the week.  Chase Anderson and Zack Greinke threw 15.2 IP and didn’t allow a run.  Mark Melancon and Alex Colome were stellar from the pen.  The Thunderwolves led the league in saves and ERA, and were second in WHIP.  Rick countered with roughly the same number of IP but had t
he edge in both strikeouts and wins.  Michael Fulmer recorded two wins with no earned runs and seven base runners over 12 IP.  He also became the first rookie pitcher since 1892 to have three consecutive games of at least six innings pitched and two or fewer hits in each game.10Fulmer

Ricks two pitching categories paired with his dominance on offense.  The Possums tied for the league lead in home runs, easily topped RBIs, and had the second highest SLG.  Once again, Rick’s middle infield led the way.  Ian Kinsler and Xander Bogaerts had four home runs, 21 hits, and two steals.  The Thunderwolves saw better play from Prince Fielder and good weeks from Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz.  However, it wasn’t enough, and Rick easily took all five categories and secured a comfortable 7-3 victory.  The Possums have climbed above 0.500 for the first time this season.  They are also far ahead of last year’s pace and may be emerging as a surprise contender.

JK Lannisters (6-2-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (6-3)

After difficult battles with the Goofballs and Possums, the Lannisters hoped for better luck against the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needed a win to keep pace with the top of the league and for potential tie-breakers.  Her offense was definitely up to the task.  The PhoeGnomes tied for the league lead in home runs and steals.  They were also near the top in RBI (2nd place), OBP (2nd place), and SLG (3rd place).  Chris Davis was the top contributor – he added three home runs in just 10 at-bats.  Jose Altuve added teals and a home run, as did Paul Goldschmidt.  The Lannisters had good power numbers but were not close in home runs, RBI, and SLG.  However, they displayed their typical strengths in OBP and SLG.  JD Martinez was particularly strong, with an OBP of 0.476.  Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, and Carlos Beltran combined for a SLG well above 0.600.  This was enough for the Lannisters to capture two categories and disrupt Heather’s improved offense.
On pitching, both sides had good performances and meltdowns.  Jon Lester was the clear MVP for the week, throwing 15 IP, allowing now earned runs, giving up 9 hits and no walks for the Lannisters.  Heather didn’t have any two-start starters, but Zach Davies continued to pitch well, as did Julio Teheran.  Jake McGee had a bullpen meltdown, as did Santiago Casilla for the Lannisters.  Jeff’s slight advantage in innings pitched resulted in a league-leading strikeout total and a tie for wins.  The team also had the best WHIP in the league and the second best ERA.  This was enough to capture four categories and secure the win.  The result was a close one and the OBP and SLG categories were in play up through Sunday.  This time, the breaks fell the Lannsiters’ way, and the PhoeGnomes are likely frustrated that the tie slipped away.

KG Capital City Goofballs (2-7) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-7)

After a series of close losses, the Goofballs were probably looking forward with a match against the Happy Hollidays.  However, Chris M. had other plans and launched an improved offensive attack in the battle of Chicago clubs.  Neither team bothered with steals, but the Hollidays produced the third best SLG in the league.  Chris M. also had the best OBP and a narrow edge in RBI.  Martin Prado was the star of the week with a 0.680 SLG for the Hollidays.  Kevin countered with strong power.  Brandon Belt had two home runs, as did five other Goofballs’ players.  DJ LeMahieu continued to be a strong presence at second base, and Starlin Castro made the most of a single start by hitting a home run.

10PradoThe Goofballs needed results on the pitching side to overcome the 3-1-1 deficit on offense.  Chris Archer racked up strikeouts and was okay for the week, but the David Price and Sonny Gray were the main stars.  These performances were mirrored by the Hollidays, who saw Aaron Sanchez amass strikeouts but allow runs.  However, the rest of the Hollidays’ staff did not fare well.  They had the second worst ERA in the league.  The Goofballs were slightly better, and they won strikeouts, saves, ERA, and WHIP.  This was enough for a 5-4-1 victory.  The Hollidays fell one steal shy of a tie.  Once again, the Goofballs were in a close battle, but this time (like the Lannisters) luck favored them.

LK Armadillos (6-2-1) vs.  CP Legion (6-1-2)

The week’s final match featured a battle for first place.  The Legion and Armadillos were virtually tied, and the winner would be guaranteed at least a share of first.  Normally a battle like this would merit the lead story in the League Update.  However, neither team performed particularly well for the week and the battle shifted to survival.  The Armadillos had good power and RBI numbers.  Ian Desmond continued his hot start, and made Larry’s trade look even better for the week.  Mark Trumbo added two more home runs, and Chris Carter slugged 0.727.  Chris P. didn’t have a counter.  Eduardo Nunez had two home runs, but only two Legion regulars had SLG above 0.500.  Jonathan Villar had a difficult week, going just 4/24 with a walk.   The Armadillos were able to sweep all five categories, though their OBP and SLG totals were not impressive. 10Desmond

Chris needed a miracle on pitching to save a tie.  The Legion had some hope when Steven Matz and JA Happ struggled in all four of their starts.  Only Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey were solid for the Armadillos, and the team had the worst ERA in the league, and the second worst WHIP.  The Legion piled up victories behind Tyler Chatwood.  They also won strikeouts.  However, the Legion’s bullpen continued to be a problem.  They ended the week with just two saves.  This gave the Armadillos an easy win, and enough to edge out a 6-4 victory.  Both OBP and SLG were in play up to the end of the week, but neither team could get anything going.  The Armadillos’ Sunday OBP and SLG were 0.275/0.289.  The Legion had an opportunity, but posted OBP/SLG totals of 0.313/0.345.  This wasn’t enough to swing either category.  The Legion left Joc Pederson and Javier Baez on the bench on Sunday.  They had a collective 4/9 day with two home runs.  The Legion could have captured SLG.  Conversely, the Armadillos’ bench failed to record a hit on Sunday.  The close win puts the Armadillos back in first place, thanks to a tie-breaker with the Lannisters.

Next Week

The Armadillos hope to remain in first place.  They face the Goofballs, who hope to build a winning streak.  The Lannisters take on the slumping Hollidays.  The Legion also get an easier match on paper when they face the Thunderwolves.  Finally, the red-hot possums hope to move into the league’s top four.  They face the PhoeGnomes.

Week 09 Elo Ratings

The Legion move into first place in the all time Elo ratings this week.  Jeff’s loss to Rick combined with the Legion’s victory gave Chris enough momentum to reach 1,600.  The Armadillos and PhoeGnomes made good gains as well, and the Possums picked up the largest pool of points for the week.

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On the other side, the Goofballs fell further into last place, though the Thunderwolves and Hollidays failed to gain any real ground.

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This week the Lannisters have the highest probability of winning versus the PhoeGnomes.  The Legion have a narrow edge over the Armadillos.  The Hollidays are slight favorites over the Goofballs, but the match is essentially a toss-up.  Finally, the Possums are on their way back to 1,500 and have a 10% edge over the Thunderwolves.

Week 09 League Update

Dramatic Finishes Shake Up Standings

Week 10 saw four underdog teams attempt difficult upsets. Only the Possums were able to win, but two other dramatic finishes and a near-miss for the Hollidays produced an exciting week.

KK Thunderwolves (1-6-1) vs. LK Armadillos (5-2-1)

09CargoAfter winning his first match of the season, Kyle hoped to keep rolling against a tough Armadillos team. However, Larry’s offense jumped to an early lead in almost all categories. Leading the way were Mark Trumbo and Carlos Gonzalez. The pair combined for eight home runs and 17 RBI. Daniel Murphy added two home runs. The Armadillos totaled 15 for the week. This also translated into a win in RBI, OBP, and SLG. The Armadillos had the highest SLG and OBP in the league by a wide margin. Kyle had little to counter on offense, with only Nelson Cruz (3 HR) producing above average stats. Gonzalez’s pair of home runs on Sunday officially turned the tide of RBI, and the Armadillos swept five categories.

Despite his struggles on offense, Kyle fared much better on pitching. Jose Fernandez was outstanding, throwing 14 IP with 20 strikeouts and no earned runs. Zach Greinke and Aaron Nola were equally strong. Kyle had the best WHIP in the league, placed second in ERA, and tied for first in wins. However, Kyle needed a five-category sweep to save a tie. Despite the best efforts of Fernandez and Nola, the Armadillos took the lead in strikeouts and wins thanks to good outings from four Sunday starters. Despite a poor aggregate ERA, Jon Gray and Carlos Martinez each earned victories and piled up strikeouts. This was enough to win the one category Larry needed to avoid the tie. The loss is a difficult one for the Thunderwolves, who put up good numbers for the week. Kyle will hope that his improved play continues while the Armadillos breathe a sigh of relief.

HP PhoeGnomes (5-3) vs. KG Capital City Goofballs (2-6)

The week’s closest match saw the PhoeGnomes meet the Goofballs in a dramatic battle. Results were mixed for both teams on the pitching side. Neither team put up good numbers, thanks to meltdowns from Jimmy Nelson, Taijuan walker, Chris Young, and Tyler Duffey. Jeff Samardzjia was especially bad, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 IP. Both teams had the highest ERAs and WHPs in the league, along with the lowest wins and strikeouts totals. Heather managed to take three categories, while Kevin stole WHIP and posted a respectable saves total.

The Goofballs had better results on offense. Nine players hit home runs and 21 players saw action for the week. Maikel Franco had two home runs, and lesser name like Steven Souza Jr. and Derek Norris contributed as well. Kevin proved yet again that he is willing to seek talent and play match-ups to get the most production possible. However, the strong power numbers didn’t translate to RBI, where Heather was able to tie for the week. She also won OBP and steals, while Kevin took SLG. This gave Heather a narrow 5-4-1 win for the week.

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This result didn’t appear likely going into the last game of the night. Heather trailed in RBI and was tied in steals. Kevin held the 5-4-1 lead, and seemed like a lock for the upset. However, Nolan Arenado performed a miracle and had three RBI and a steal. This swung two categories to the PhoeGnomes, and capped off a four home run week for the third baseman. Heather escaped with the narrow victory, and Kevin is left to wonder what went wrong yet again. The loss is even more upsetting for the Goofballs given the PhoeGnomes’ poor effort on pitching. The opportunity was there, but it slipped away. The win also keeps Heather close to the league lead.

RK Possums (3-4-1) vs. JK Lannisters (6-1-1)

09DuvallThe final upset try for the week belonged to the Possums. Unlike the Thunderwolves and PhoeGnomes, Rick was able to complete a close win against the Lannisters. Both teams posted jaw-dropping offensive totals. Eight Possums and nine Lannisters hit home runs, including five each from Adam Duvall and Mookie Betts. Three players each had three home runs, and four more had two. Betts had 10 RBI, Duvall had nine, and Charlie Blackmon, Ian Kinsler, and JD Martinez had eight each. Joey Votto managed two steals, and this was enough to clinch the category. However, Jeff left five home runs on the bench from Corey Seager, thanks to Manny Machado’s new SS eligibility. The Possums finished the week with the most home runs and RBI in the league, with the Lannisters right behind them. The massive power showing gave Rick five categories after a weekend push.

The Lannisters fared better on pitching, and had solid numbers through Sunday. Unfortunately for Jeff, the Possums put up such strong offensive totals that he had to gamble and start multiple pitchers. This inflated the team ERA and WHIP, and gave the Possums enough for the victory. Rick posted great saves totals and paired that with five different starters earning wins. The Lannsiters had the most strikeouts, but this would ultimately be their only category win. The Possums completed a massive pair of upsets over the league’s top two teams. He has made it back to 0.500 and should be considered a stronger opponent going forward. Meanwhile, the Lannisters must wonder what they have to do next week. After putting up a line that would have beaten every other team (like the Goofballs last week), Jeff will need to rebound quickly against the PhoeGnomes.

CP Legion (5-1-2) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (2-6)

In a week of close battles, the Legion and Hollidays put up a close final score. However, all ten categories were won by wide margins, leaving little drama to the match-up. Both teams had excellent pitching lines. The Legion dominated strikeouts and wins. Steven Wright, Kevin Gausman, Collin McHugh, Ian Kennedy, Gerritt Cole, and Josh Tomlin al made two starts and piled up counting stats. However, their ERAs and WHIP suffered, giving Chris M. easy victories in the rate stats. No Hollidays pitcher allowed more than three earned runs. Only four of Chris M.’s pitchers allowed any runs, and Marco Estrada was the best of the week with eleven strikeouts. Two Brad Ziegler saves were all Chris M. needed to collect three categories.

09WrightChris P. countered on offense. The Legion reached double-digits in home runs, thanks to great weeks from Jonathan Villar and Evan Longoria in limited use. Villar added three steals, and was the player of the week for the Legion. Chris M. made a strong push, with four home runs from Jay Bruce and seen RBI from Matt Kemp. Unfortunately, the Hollidays fell short in all categories except SLG. Chris P. earned a 6-4 victory thanks to his edge in power. Chris M. should take some comfort in the improved offensive performance. The Legion earned a workman-like win and avoided the upset.

Next Week

Two matches take center-stage for the week. The Armadillos put first place on the line against the Legion. Heather looks to keep pace, while the Lannisters are due for a break after a tough loss. The Possums have a great chance to move above 0.500 against the Thunderwolves, who themselves are looking better. Finally, the expansion teams meet and hope to start building momentum with a win.

Possum’s Corner 01

Rick put together these interesting stats for each team!  Thanks for contributing, and I hope everyone enjoys the Possum’s Corner!

Possum01Each team has strengths and weaknesses.  Rick took a closer look at each team’s performance across a variety of categories.  The numbers in the charts represent the number of players on each team who are in the league’s top 15 players, or have achieved x number of stats.

For example the Armadillos  have three players who are the the top 15 of wins in league.  The PhoeGnomes and Goofballs do as well.  Jeff and Rick have two each, and Kyle and Chris M. have just one.  The Legion don’t have any players in the top 15 in wins.

The Armadillos and Lannisters have the most players with at least 11 home runs, and the Goofballs are right behind them.  Kyle lags the group, with no players producing much power yet.

The Legion and Possums have the best WHIIP among their starters, and Heather is close behind.  The rest of the league lags far behind this pace, as each team as only one starter in the top 15, while the Goofballs have none.

The Lannisters and Armadillos’ home run totals also translate to RBI.  Jeff has seven players with at least 32 RBI, and the Armadillos have five.  Kevin is next up with three, and Chris and Rick both lack RBI production.

Jeff and Larry also far well in saves, but the league is pretty evenly distributed in this category.  The Happy Hollidays are the farthest back, with no player having at least 12 saves.  The Hollidays fare better on batting average, where they have four players in the top 15 in the league.  The Armadillos are also strong, while the Thunderwolves, Legion, and Lannisters bring up the rear.

The opposite is true for OBP, where the Lannisters lead the league with three players in the top 15.  However, every other team has two players in the league’s top 15 except for the Legion.

The PhoeGnomes shine in strikeouts, where four of their players are among the 15 best in the league.  Chris P., Chris M., and Jeff struggle here.  Rick is also near the top, while Larry, Kevin and Kyle make up the middle of the pack.

Thanks again to Rick for calculating these stats!  They are really interesting to look, and help each team know where they stand in certain categories.  I hope we can review these again as the season goes on.

Week 08 Elo Ratings

Week 08’s Elo ratings saw a few major swings as a result of the week’s upsets.  The Legion and Lannisters remained firmly at the top of the standings.  However, Larry and Heather saw large drops to the Possums and Thunderwolves.

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Rick saw the biggest gain, with a +13.5 against the Armadillos.  Kyle also gained ground.  Unfortunately for Kevin and Chris M., these gains came at the expense of the expansion teams.  Rick climbed all the way into fifth place, while the Goofballs fell to the bottom of the league.

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This week sees few even matches.  The four league leaders all play lower ranked teams, so the percentages are all around 60% or higher.  Jeff and Chris P. are the most favored, while the Goofballs show the best chance for an upset.

Week 08 League Update

Thunderwolves Get First Win;  Possums Overtake Armadillos;  Legion and Lannisters Take Care of Business

CM Happy Holidays (2-5) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-6-1)

After a disappointing start to the season, Kyle knew he needed a win against the slumping Happy Hollidays.  There is no way he could have expected to get on the board with a dominant 10-0 sweep.  The Thunderwolves performed best on offense, where a group of four players each hit two home runs.  Ryan Braun was the standout – he paired two steals with his two home runs.  Jonathan LuCroy provided offense from the catcher position.  Gregory Polanco led the team with nine hits, and also contributed a steal.  The Happy Hollidays had little offense to counter the Thunderwolves.  Ben Zobrist had a nice week, but he was the only player with an OBP above 0.320.  Kyle dominated all five categories and finished tied for third in home runs and SLG.  He led the league in OBP and was second in RBI.Braun
The Thunderwolves pitching was less impressive, but it was good enough to earn another 5-0 category sweep.  Yu Darvish returned to form in his second post-injury start.  Jose Fernandez was also excellent, but Zach Greinke, Yordano Ventura, and Michael Wacha all struggled.  The Hollidays tried for quality over quantity, but none of the team’s starters were effective.   The team allowed 27 runs in 46 IP, including a disastrous week for Adam Wainwright.  Neither team has a lot to brag out on pitching, but the Thunderwolves did more than enough to earn the victory.

Kyle’s first win of the season was a long-time coming.  However, the return of Darvish along with better offensive production could help turn the team around.  The Goofballs and Hollidays are only a half-game ahead of Kyle in the standings, so there is plenty of time for the Thunderwolves to make it back to the middle tier of the league.

LK Armadillos (5-1-1) vs.   RK Possums (2-4-1)

RamosLike the Thunderwolves, the Possums started slowly this season.  However, they have turned things around in recent weeks and hoped to keep things rolling against the Armadillos.  Rick took advantage of Larry’s weak offensive showing, but the Armadillos countered with better steals totals and a higher OBP.  Rick’s power came from some unlikely sources.  Wilson Ramos hit two home runs, as did Xander Bogaerts.  Adam Duvall also added a home run and four RBI in his only game played.  Four other Possums also hit homers, and rick built a commanding leader in the power and RBI categories.  The Armadillos countered with a rebound week for Starling Marte, who had four steals.  Ian Desmond added two more, along with a team-high 0.444 OBP.  This was enough to give Larry two categories to Rick’s three, before accounting for pitching.

The Possums and Armadillos threw roughly the same number of innings, so the winner of the week would be the team with the best individual performances.  The best pitcher for either team was Justin Verlander, who threw eight shutout innings with only five base runners and ten strikeouts.  Clayton Kershaw was almost as good, allowing two runs over 16.2 IP and striking out 17.  However, his good work was undone by disastrous outings from the Armadillos’ bullpen.  Craig Kimbrel and Jeurys Familia threw 3.1 IP and allowed six earned runs.  Their poor performance resulted in a tie in the saves category.  The Possums edged the Armadillos by two strikeouts.  Larry was able to win ERA, but Rick won WHIP.  This split-decision gave Rick the three categories he needed to ensure victory.

The Possums pulled off the upset and moved to within a game of 0.500.  The emergence of Xander Bogaerts is the most positive news for the Possums this year.  After heavily investing in Bogaerts through the years, the Possums now have one of the best shortstops in the league.  Meanwhile, the Armadillos are left looking for answers after a series of disappointing results.

KG Capital City Goofballs (2-5) vs.  JK Lannisters (5-1-1)

After upsets to the Hollidays and Armadillos, the Lannisters were the next target of an underdog.  The Goofballs played the Lannisters tough in the first match of the season, and this second round was no different.  Early in the week, the Goofballs’ pitching looked like it might deliver a victory.  The Goofballs threw 79 IP and had the best ERA in the league by far.  They also had the lowest WHIP, second most saves, tied for second in wins, and were fourth in strikeouts.  The staff was led by a pair of Rays, Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer.  The pair threw 20 IP, allowed three earned runs, and just eight base runners.  Johnny Cueto was also dominant, throwing 15 IP with an ERA of 0.60 and a WHIP of 0.67.  David Price and Tom Koehler were also excellent.  Unfortunately for the Goofballs, the Lannisters also deployed productive starters.  Rich Hill continued to play well, and was one of a trio of Lannister pitchers who struck out 15 for the week.  Stephen Strasburg and John Lackey each pitched two great games, and only Wei-Yen Chen was a bust for the week.  The Goofballs took both rate stats, but the Lannisters had more quantity and won wins, saves, and strikeouts.

CanoKevin had to rely on his offense to carry the week.  The Goofballs deployed an incredible 19 players and 11 of them hit home runs.  Todd Frazier and Lorenzo Cain stayed hot, as did Brandon Belt and Trevor Story.  Frazier was the best of the group, with two homers and two steals.  However, despite all of the home runs, the Goofballs fell short of the RBIs you might expect.  The Lannisters took advantage with massive weeks from Eric Hosmer and David Ortiz.  Nine Lannisters hit home runs, including three from Robinson Cano.  Buster Posey finally returned to form with a pair of home runs and a steal.  Hosmer and Mike Trout added steals, and Jeff tied the category.  Every Lannister with at least 10 at-bats had at least two RBI.  This was enough to give the Lannisters the win in HR, RBI, SLG, and OBP.  They led the league in all of those categories except OBP, where they were second.  Despite this level of production, the Goofballs kept things close until Sunday when the third Cano home run locked down HR and SLG.

FrazierThe Goofballs fell just short yet again.  Here are the results they would have had against every other team in the league:

  • Armadillos: Win 9-1
  • Possums: Win 7-1-2
  • Hollidays: Win 10-0
  • Thunderwolves: Win 7-3
  • Legion: Win 8-2
  • PhoeGnomes: Win 7-2-1

The Goofballs would have beaten every other team, and the results weren’t particularly close.  The same applies to the Lannsiters.  In their two match-ups, the teams have combined for 61 home runs.  The entire league has hit 602 total.  This means that the Goofballs and Lannisters have hit 10% of the league’s home runs in just 2 of the 32 totals matches that have been played so far.  This also includes the home runs hit on Monday of this week.  Both teams will have to hope that they are not exhausted going into their next matches.

CP Legion (4-1-2) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (5-2)

The week’s final match paired the PhoeGnomes and Legion.  Both teams are at the top of the league.  The Legion hoped to stop the PhoeGnomes from further ascension.  For her part, Heather needed the victory to get back on track and for tiebreaker considerations.  Unfortunately for the PhoeGnomes, her offense sputtered while the Legion’s put up great numbers.  The PhoeGnomes were near the bottom of the league in HR and were next to last in SLG.  Chris was the opposite, and finished near the top in HR, OBP, SLG, and steals.  Seven Legion players had home runs, and Jonathan Villar was the best of the group.  He had a home, four steals, and OBP of 0.567 in 22 AB.  Brett Lawrie showed signs of life with a home run and a steal.  Heather didn’t have any effective counters, except for Miguel Sano.  He hit four home runs, but few other PhoeGnomes contributed much.  Chris won four categories with ease, but the PhoeGnomes were able to take RBI with a surprisingly high total.  This gave Heather a chance if her pitching performed.Villar

Heather set a strong early pace by winning strikeouts by a huge margin.  Her staff threw 24 more innings than Chris’s, and racked up the most strikeouts in the league.  This number came with a steep cost, though, as the PhoeGnomes had the second worst ERA and WHIP in the league.  Chris wasn’t much better, and actually had the worst WHIP overall.  Heather also had the better bullpen, but Chris was able to tie the critical wins category for the week.  Only one of Heather’s four Sunday starters got a win, and the Legion were able to take the category and the overall win.  Heather had a chance to tie, but the pieces didn’t fall her way this time.  Once again, the Legion were able to take a close match and remain near the top of the league.  Heather is still a strong contender, and will likely fare better when her offense turns around.

Next Week

The Goofballs will look to stay hot against the PhoeGnomes.  Kevin hopes that his luck is better this time around, while Heather needs a win to keep pace.  The Possums want to continue to win, but face the difficult Lannisters.  However, Rick’s pitching often frustrates the Lannisters, and he has one of the better records against the defending champs through the years.  The Legion hope to keep things moving against the slumping Hollidays.  Finally, the Thunderwolves hope for win number two against the frustrated Armadillos.

Week 07 Elo Ratings

Week 07 saw several interesting moves on the Elo leader board.  Jeff and Chris remained one-two in the ratings after their tie.  The league’s top favorites, Heather and Larry, each gained a few points and maintained their positions behind the leaders.

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The biggest move of the week came from the Possums.  They gained 10 points and moved ahead of Kyle and out of last place.  Rick is also much closer to both the Goofballs and Happy Hollidays.

Next week, Jeff is the biggest favorite of the week with a 70% win probability against the Goofballs.  Larry and Chris are also heavy favorites, with over 60% chances to win.  The closest match of the week is between the Happy Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  Kyle is just a 4% underdog, and has a strong chance to pick up his first win.

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Week 07 League Update

Possums, PhoeGnomes Romp; Armadillos Keep Pace, Legion and Lannisters Inconclusive

HP PhoeGnomes (4-2) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-5-1)

The PhoeGnomes entered the week in a small statistical slump.  Heather’s team had cooled after a hot start, and needed a boost before entering another challenging set of matches.  Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, Heather received just the boost she was looking for.  The PhoeGnomes had the most balanced week of any team in the league.

SyndergaardHeather’s pitching was outstanding, leading the league in every category except saves.  Noah Syndergaard was phenomenal, pitching 14 innings, striking out 21, and allowing no earned runs.  Heather had only one starter allow more than two runs for the week.  If you remove the terrible stats from Shawn Tolleson, the PhoeGnomes would have had a 1.26 ERA over 64.1 IP.  Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Rodriguez had three saves each, and Heather tied for second in this category.  Kyle was unable to mount a serious challenge in the face of these dominant statistics.  He did lead the league in saves, but Heather still boasted a commanding 4-1 lead for the side.

On offense, Kyle was unable to turn the tide.  Only two Thunderwolves players had SLG over .430 (Nelson Cruz and Gregory Polanco).  The team lacked any consistent on-base presence, and fell below .300 for the week.  On the other hand, Heather delivered a solid all-around performance.  She finished in second in RBI, tied for second in HR, first in OBP, and third in SLG.  Jose Bautista took out his frustrations on the rest of the league with four home runs and nine RBI.  Brandon Crawford was strong, with two home runs and a .650 SLG.  The offensive showing was more than enough to bury the Thunderwolves, who continue to struggle on both sides of the ball.  Heather’s solid numbers are a welcome return to form, and bode well for future match-ups.

RK Possums (1-4-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (2-4)

After defeating the Happy Hollidays last week for his first win, Rick looked to keep things going against the Goofballs.  Unfortunately for Kevin, Rick made the most of his matches against the expansion teams, and earned his second win of the season.

Rick’s strategy centered on offense and volume pitching.  The Possums threw 68.2 innings versus just 53.2 for the Goofballs.  This resulted in the second most strikeouts in the league, and a tie for the most wins.  Rick’s bullpen was also strong, tying for second with six saves.  Max Scherzer was solid, but Rick had good efforts from several lower-tier arms like Chris Tillman and Matt Wisler.  Other starters were less effective (especially Jordan Zimmerman) but Kevin struggled as well.  Chris Archer was miserable for the week, and Sonny Gray is now in the DL after a rough outing.  Trevor May allowed three earned runs and didn’t record an out, giving him an ERA of infinity.  [Technically, undefined since you are dividing by 0, but you get the idea.]  Overall, Rick swept all five categories and set himself up well before accounting for offense.

Ian Kinsler
Tigers at Orioles 5/14/14

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, Kevin’s hopes for a rally faded with a lack of RBI and odd power numbers.  Kevin tied for second in home runs with ten.  However, this translated into the second-fewest RBI in the league (23) and a SLG barely above .400.  Much like the Armadillos’ recent oddities, the Goofballs seemed unable to generate many doubles or RBI to go along with their solid home run totals.  Eight different Goofballs hit homers, but those same players managed just nine RBI in addition to their own home runs.  Some of this is a result of good players on bad teams, like Freddie Freeman on the Braves.  Meanwhile, the Possums were there opposite of the Goofballs – they lacked home runs but had good overall numbers.  Xander Bogaerts and Ian Kinsler had 20 hits and a combined SLG of .600 but just three home runs (all from Kinsler).  Melvin Upton stayed hot with two steals.  Despite Kevin’s home runs, Rick swept the remaining four categories, albeit by small margins.  The Possums earned their second victory of the year.  The Goofballs continue to slide, and hope that their power numbers translate more effectively in the future.

LK Armadillos (4-1-1) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-4)

After tasting first place, the Armadillos lost to the PhoeGnomes.  They hoped to turn things around against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to rely on solid pitching for a victory, but was thwarted by offensive problems.  Larry relied on Marcell Ozuna and Jackie Bradley Jr. for most of his offense.  The two combined for four homers and Bradley had nine walks.  Carlos Correa added three steals, and role players like Travis Shaw and Daniel Murphy contributed a few home runs and RBI.  The Armadillos were in the middle of the pack in most categories, but Chris wasn’t able to capitalize.  The Happy Hollidays’ lack of power is becoming more of a concern after the team hit only four home runs, slugged below .400 and barely stayed above a .300 OBP.  Larry swept all five categories, but Chris finished just one steal behind for the week.

BradleyOn pitching, the Hollidays fared much better.  Cole Hamels struck out 17 over 14.2 innings.  Aaron Sanchez and Adam Wainwright were also strong in their single starts.  Larry’s starters were the corollary to Chris’s staff:  They were largely ineffective.  Adam Conley pitched 11.1 innings but gave up seven earned runs.  Kenta Maeda allowed nine in nine IP.  J.A. Happ and Jason Hammel weren’t much better, and only Clayton Kershaw really lived up to expectations.  Chris won ERA and WHIP by a huge margin, though Larry somehow tied in wins.  The Armadillos’ advantage in innings pitched translated to a win in strikeouts.  This resulted in a decisive win, but the Hollidays were not without opportunities.  One more win, a few strikeouts, and a steal would have turned the tide.

JK Lannisters (5-1) vs.  CP Legion (4-1-1)

The week’s final match paired the defending champs with their long-time rival, the Legion.  Chris entered the week with newfound confidence in his team after several young players made positive strides on offense.  The Lannisters, like the PhoeGnomes, needed an offensive rebound after a few stale weeks.

SalazarThe Legion received stellar pitching early in the week.  Danny Salazar and Carlos Rodon set the pace, and the Legion built a commanding lead in strikeouts along with solid ERA and WHIP numbers.  The Lannisters had an unfavorable pitching schedule for most of their starters, were there were few early-week games.  This gave the Legion the luxury of observing results and tailoring later pitchers as conditions dictated.  However, Jeff had solid stat lines from Stephen Strasburg and John Lackey in the early going.  He also piled up saves, and built a commanding lead.

BettsOn offense, the Lannisters had better fortune.  Monster weeks from Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, and Kris Bryant built huge leads in HR, RBI, and SLG.  Chris was closer and OBP, but the Lannisters were fairly comfortable there too.  However, Chris dominated steals in the same way the Lannisters captured saves.  This gave each team four secure categories, with only steals and wins realistically in play.

On the last day of the week, Jeff started Dallas Keuchel and Juan Nicasio.  This prompted Chris to start Danny Salazar.  However, Keuchel imploded and the Pirates were rained out, so Chris was secure in his pitching categories.  The Lannisters tried their best to capture steals, but came up three short.  Bizarrely, they left three steals on the bench when Ben Revere suddenly stopped being useless.

The Legion are likely happy with the tie, as a few breaks could have turned things to the Lannisters’ favor.  Conversely, the Lannisters were fortunate that Chris’s starters didn’t get more wins.  The week appeared headed for a tie after a few days, but both teams tried to maneuver to their best advantage.  The resulting match was fun and exciting, and both teams will have to look to the future to settle their differences.

Next Week

The most interesting match of the week pairs the Legion with the PhoeGnomes.  Both teams are in contention and this match will be especially important for the Legion, who lost in Week 01.  The Possums hope to keep things rolling against the Armadillos.  Jeff will try to avoid another tie or loss against the Goofballs.  Finally, the Thunderwolves will go for their first win of the year against the slumping Happy Hollidays.

 

Week 06 Elo Ratings

Week 06 saw small shifts in Elo, but few major moves.  The top two teams, the Lannistersa and Legion, each gained a handful of points.  Both teams played much lower rated squads, so fewer points were on the line if they won.  The same can’t be said for the Armadillos and PhoeGnomes.  Heather gained the most points in the league with her win, while Larry fell by a corresponding amount.

Elo1

The Possums had a nice gain of points as well.  Rick pulled closer to the Thunderwolves, who are now in danger of falling into last place.  The Happy Hollidays took a heavy loss of points since they were clear favorites over the Possums.  Kevin is now within striking distance of fifth place.

This week’s games feature the top two teams.  The math is a toss-up, with Elo giving each side a 50% chance to win.

Elo2

Larry is a heavy favorite over Chris M.  Kevin is a slight favorite over Rick and Heather shows a strong likelihood of defeating the Thunderwolves.

Possums Earn First Victory; PhoeGnomes, Lannisters, Legion Survive

CM Happy Hollidays (2-3) vs.  RK Possums (0-4-1)

After five difficult weeks, the Possums earned their first victory of the season against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. entered Week 06 after shocking the PhoeGnomes.  However, his luck didn’t last against the Possums’ combined attack.  Rick put up solid numbers across the board and took advantage of several Hollidays’ pitching meltdowns to enjoy a stress-free week.

BogaertsXander Bogaerts and Albert Pujols led the way for the Possums with four home runs and 13 RBI.  Bogaerts was particularly strong for the week with 15 hits.  Charlie Blackmon contributed seven more RBI, and the Possums easily won OBP, SLG, home runs, and RBI.  Chris was able to salvage a tie in steals, and Matt Holliday had a big week, but it wasn’t enough to turn any categories.  After leading the Hollidays to a win over the PhoeGnomes, Francisco Lindor endured a miserable five hit week.  Lindor has a .222 OBP and .192 SLG.  Yadier Molina and Ben Zobrist were the opposite, combining for 20 hits in 41 at-bats.  Unfortunately, they didn’t offer much power for the week, and Chris was forced to rely on his pitching.

Unfortunately for the Hollidays, several of his starters struggled.  Cole Hamels was the only Holliday to allow fewer than four earned runs.  The Possums countered with solid stats in a quantity approach for the week.  Rick had the second most strikeouts in the league and was third in saves.  His ERA and WHIP numbers weren’t great, but they were far below the Hollidays’ results.  Max Scherzer was clearly the standout for the week, with an incredible 20 strikeout performance.  Rick doubled Chris’s strikeout total for the week and cruised to the easy win.

The Possums have to feel good to be on the board for the year.  Rick drew praise for his strategy during the draft, but had yet to see any results for his efforts.  After finally putting together a complete week and avoiding a hot team, he will look to continue to build momentum.  For Chris, the loss exposes some issues on both pitching and offense that need attention before the Hollidays can climb out of the middle tier of the league.

HP PhoeGnomes (3-2) vs.  LK Armadillos (4-0-1)

After falling to the Hollidays, Heather needed a quick rebound while facing the league-leading Armadillos.  Larry hoped to keep his team strong after defeating the Lannisters.  Unfortunately, a series of bizarre incidents, brawls, and bad luck conspired against him, and the PhoeGnomes earned a close win.

On offense, both teams had clear category wins.  Larry easily won steals and RBI, but Heather dominated OBP and SLG.  These were strange results for several reasons.  First, the Armadillos had the second-most home runs and RBI in the league, but the second-worst OBP and SLG.  How were the Armadillos able to get so many HR and RBI without a corresponding SLG rate?  Why was the OBP so low if players were getting on base to drive in runs?  The Armadillos suffered from a massive feast-or-famine problem.  Jackie Bradley Jr. was 10 for 23 with two homers, eight RBI and a .783 SLG.   However, Giancarlo Stanton was 1 for 18 with no RBI and a .056 SLG.  Daniel Murphy stayed hot with an 11 for 25 week with six RBI.  Edwin Encarnacion was 1 for 14 with a .071 OBP.  Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Hill and Gregory Polanco were hitless for the week.  This schizophrenic performance gave Heather the opening she needed to capitalize on good week from stars like Jose Altuve and role-players like Odubel Herrera.  The teams were even in steals, so pitching would dictate who won the week.  Even this category was not without drama, and Jose Bautista earned a steal as part of a double-steal and Altuve picked up two on Sunday.

AltuveBoth teams performed well relative to the rest of the league.  The PhoeGnomes had the lowest ERA of any team, and the Armadillos were second.  Heather was second in WHIP and Larry was third.  He also led the league in saves and tied for first in wins.  This gave each team a 2-2 split to go along with their 2-2-1 result on offense.  The outcome of the week rested on strikeouts.  If Larry won the category, he would win the week.  A tie would also result in a draw.

Heather had only two pitchers enter games on Sunday.  Francisco Rodriguez had one strikeout, meaning that Larry needed only four to win the week.  Craig Kimbrel did his part, recording two and picking up a save.  Roberto Osuna entered the Rangers/Blue Jays game but did not record a strikeout, and Jeanmar Gomez did not appear versus Cincinnati.  Fernando Rodney had two strikeouts on the bench, and Trevor Rosenthal picked up one against the Dodgers.  The narrow strikeout margin and Bautista’s Sunday steal secured an improbable comeback win for Heather.  She is now just a game behind the Lannisters.  The loss drops the Armadillos from first to third.

CP Legion (3-1-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (2-3)

Chris needed a victory to keep pace with the Lannisters and PhoeGnomes.  He found success on both offense and pitching, while the Goofballs’ excellent offensive stats were washed away by problems on the mound.  The Legion led the league with 13 home runs and five steals.  However, Chris had just four more RBIs than the PhoeGnomes (who hit just five home runs).  He also had the lowest OBP in the league.  Kevin countered with a massive week of rate stats, easily leading the league in SLG and coming in second in OBP.  Todd Frazier and Lorenzo Cain combined for six home runs and 18 RBI.  Only two Goofballs with at least 10 at-bats had SLG under .450.  Chris countered with monster weeks from George Springer and Yasmani Grandal.  Eight Legion hitters had homers, and Jonathan Villar contributed three steals.  Both teams were evenly matched, but Kevin secured a 3-2 lead on the offensive side.Grandal

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, their good work on offense was undone by disastrous pitching.  This was even more disappointing for Kevin since Chris didn’t put up dominant rate stats or saves totals.  The Legion dominated strikeouts with 87, 17 more than the Possums.  Chris also tied for the league lead in wins.  However, his bullpen wasn’t productive and his starters produced rate stats that were in the bottom third of the league.  Fortunately for the Legion, Kevin had the second worst ERA and worst WHIP in the league.  Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi were terrible for the week, allowing nine runs in nine IP.  Sonny Gray was even worse, allowing 10 runs in 9.1 IP.

Chris secured the close win, and the Goofballs are left to ponder what might have been.  With openings on both the ERA and WHIP categories, Kevin had a chance for the upset.  The Legion were able to win and ugly match-up and keep pace with the league leaders.  Both clubs will need sharper performances in the coming weeks.

KK Thunderwolves (0-4-1) vs.  JK Lannisters (4-1)

After losing to the Armadillos, the Lannisters were looking to get on track against the Thunderwolves.  Kyle was hoping for his first win of the year with an upset of the defending champions.  Something had to give, and Jeff earned a close victory.  However, Kyle can take pride in closing the gap late in the week.

The Lannisters’ offensive starters had mixed results throughout the week.  Manny Machado stayed hot with two home runs, but had only three RBI.  Bryce Harper walked 11 times and had a steal, but hit only one home run.  Eric Hosmer and Jean Segura combined for 19 hits, but with light power.  These mediocre results placed the Lannisters in the middle of the league in every offensive category.  It also gave the Thunderwolves a chance to remain competitive.

Unfortunately for Kyle, he suffered some of the same problems that that the Lannisters faced.  He tied the Lannisters in SLG but failed to make a challenge in RBI despite nine from Addison Russell.  The team was also light on steals.  This gave Jeff a 3-1-1 advantage, but SLG was only .0041 apart.  One or two more hits would have given Kyle the category.  One more home run would have flipped both HR and SLG and given Kyle the win.  However, Kyle can take comfort in the fact that he did not leave any home runs on the bench on Sunday and had only one on Saturday.

deGromThe teams were evenly matched on pitching as well.  Kyle threw fewer innings but had good starts from Jose Fernandez and Aaron Nola.  Fernandez in particular was outstanding, giving up one run and striking out 22 in 14.0 IP.  Jeff countered with solid weeks from Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Jacob deGrom.  However, both teams had several starters who struggle.  This led to split results with Kyle taking wins and ERA but Jeff winning both strikeouts and WHIP.  In fact, the Lannisters led the league in WHIP despite having just the third best ERA.  These mixed results were enough to give the Lannisters the win.  Kyle had an opening to win the match, but didn’t have enough firepower to get the job done.  For the Lannisters, the workmanlike win was important after the rest of the leaders kept pace.

Week 07 is the last week of the first cycle of games.  The most important match pairs the Legion with the Lannisters.  These two teams have led the league in Elo for several seasons.  Jeff will look to stay in first place while Chris hopes to show that his rebuilding efforts are already paying dividends.

The Possums hope to keep winning against the Goofballs.  The Hollidays will also look to get back on track against the Armadillos.  Heather will try to take advantage of the Legion/Lannisters battle and gain a game on at least one team against the Thunderwolves.