Special Report: Possums Surging

Written by Larry Kramer

Possums Surging!

After an unsatisfying 2015 season when the club’s statistics seemed to be better than their record indicated, and after a seemingly strong draft this winter, the Possums had seemed poised for better things in 2016.  However, it took them six long weeks early this season before the Possums finally tasted victory.  After going 0-4-1 for the first five weeks, they finally recorded their first win in mid-May.
Possum.jpgBut now the Possums are the hottest team in the league!  Rick shrewdly added Adam Duvall (22 HR, 59 RBI) and Sam Dyson (17 saves) in late May and the team reeled off four straight victories.  After a tough 4-5-1 loss to the PhoeGnomes, the Possums crushed the Legion and the Hollidays to move their record to 7-5-1 just two games off the lead (and just a half game out of the first division).  They have dominated most of their recent matchups.
If Rick can keep making the kind of moves he has been making, and avoid any big injuries, he may be poised to make a run at the title!  The Possums are on a roll!

Week 13 Elo Ratings

All of week 12’s favorites won, so there were no major shifts in the league’s Elo ratings for the week.  Jeff, Chris, Larry, and Rick all gained ground while their opponents slipped.

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Rick and Larry had the largest gains of the week, while Jeff and Chris saw small improvements.

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Next week, the Armadillos are the biggest favorite of the week against the Hollidays.  Jeff and Chris are a coin toss.  Heather returns to being a heavy favorite, and Rick enjoys a wide margin against the Goofballs.

Week 13 League Update

Heavy Favorites Dominate; Possums Roll; Armadillos Survive

LK Armadillos (8-3-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (8-4)

13RizzoThe week’s closest match-up paired the Armadillos and PhoeGnomes.  Larry was tied for first place and Heather was just a half-game behind.  The winner had a chance to take sole possession of first, or keep pace with the other top teams.  Both teams showed tremendous power for the week.  The Armadillos led the league in home runs and were second in RBI.  Heather tied for the lead in steals.  The Armadillos’ home run advantage did not translate to SLG or OBP.  Both teams were virtually tied.  Kendrys Morales had four home runs in just 14 at-bats for the PhoeGnomes.  Larry countered with five players with at least two homers, including three from Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion.  This boost gave Larry a tiny edge in both rate categories.  Both were decided by less than five thousandths of a point.  The Armadillos left four Sunday home runs on the bench.  Had he not won SLG (and thus the week), there would have been a lot of second-guessing for the league leader.

The 4-1 win on offense left Heather in a difficult position.  Unfortunately for her, the PhoeGnomes’ pitchers were not sharp for the week.  Reliable starts like Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner had ERA’s over 5.00.  However, they did product wins and strikeouts.  The Armadillos were unable to match these counting stats, but good weeks from Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Martinez nailed down ERA and WHIP.  This was more than enough to secure a 6-3-1 victory for the week.  Heather had a chance with a strong Sunday to flip this result, but the PhoeGnomes didn’t have enough offense.  The win preserves the Armadillos’ tie for first place.  The PhoeGnomes drop a game and a half back, but know they are likely to be competitive to the end.

RK Possums (6-5-1) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-10)

The Possums are on the edge of contention and looked to solidify their position versus the Happy Hollidays.  Rick’s team remained red hot, cruising to a 9-1 victory that was never really in doubt.  Joey Votto and Josh Donaldson each had three home runs and a steal for the week.  Albert Pujols added six RBI, and even role players like Evan Gattis contributed.  Rick led the league in RBI and was near the top in home runs, OBP and SLG.  Ben Zobrist and Stephen Piscotty had two home runs each for the Happy Hollidays, but it wasn’t enough to prevent a five-category sweep.

On pitching, Chris M. tried to counter.  Aaron Sanchez was excellent in one start.  Seung Hwan Oh had a great week from the bullpen, and Marco Estrada was productive.  However, Rick pitched more innings and had better overall production.  Justin Verlander and Scott Kazmir had solid weeks, and the Possums overcame bullpen trouble to take saves.  Rick conceded ERA to Chris, but won all four other categories.  Rick is now two games above 0.500 and just two games out of first place.

13DonaldsonJosh Donaldson has been a key for the Possums.  Acquired in a trade with the Lannisters, Donaldson has given the Possums 20 home runs and a few steals.  The pick Rick gave up for Donaldson was used to draft Corey Seager, who has 17 home runs at shortstop.  However, Rick has Xander Bogaerts, and Jeff was able to clear up a logjam at 3B.  The trade is a rare example of a deal that has benefitted both teams.

KG Capital City Goofballs (4-8) vs.  CP Legion (7-3-2)

13DuffyThe Legion needed to keep pace with the other favorites, and had a reasonably close match-up with the Goofballs.  However, Chris P. used a pitching-first strategy that paid dividends.  The Legion led the league in every pitching category besides WHIP, and most categories weren’t even close.  Chris combined a huge advantage in innings pitching with quality starts.  This resulted in nine wins, 91 strikeouts, and seven saves.  Chris often sees high strikeout and wins totals, but the saves have to be a welcome sight.  Vince Velazquez and Danny Duffy were the standouts for the week.  The pair combined for 27.2 innings pitched, 30 strikeouts, four wins, and a sub-2.00 ERA.  Cody Allen and Steve Cishek added three saves each.  Overall, it was a dominant performance that Kevin was unable to counter.

On offense, the Goofballs had much more positive results.  Kevin had the second best SLG and home run total in the league.  Brian Dozier had three homers, and Yoenis Cespedes and Freddie Freeman had ten hits each.  Chris had good home run, RBI, and SLG totals too, but they weren’t good enough to counter the Goofballs.  Jake Lamb stayed red-hot, but only Danny Espinosa had a steal for the Legion.  This gave Kevin a chance to salvage a 5-5 draw.  However, Kevin couldn’t find any steals on Sunday.  The Goofballs posted an excellent 0.594 OBP for the day, but it wasn’t enough to take the category from the Legion.  Chris earned a 6-3-1 victory and kept pace with the top of the league.  The loss continues Kevin’s trend of falling just-short against top competition.

JK Lannisters (8-3-1) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (2-9-1)

13ShoemakerLike the Possums, the Lannisters enjoyed a relatively stress-free week against the Thunderwolves.  Despite injuries to nearly his entire starting rotation, Jeff managed to win four pitching categories thanks to solid efforts from journeymen like Matt Shoemaker and John Lackey.  However, the Lannisters were unable to record a win for the week, and Kyle managed to take at least one category.

On offense, the Lannisters had the best OBP and SLG in the league.  They tied for the highest steals total.  Kyle produced good power and RBI numbers, but it wasn’t enough.  Kris Bryant exploded for a five home run week.  Bryce Harper added two of his own.  Kyle had good weeks from Nelson Cruz, Ryan Braun, and Wil Myers.  However, no other Thunderwolf regular had a SLG over 0.500.  The Lannisters had six regulars with SLG over 0.500 and piled up steals from Mike Trout.  This resulted in a rare stress-free week for the Lannisters, who remained tied with the Armadillos for first place.

Next Week

The most important match of the week pairs the Lannisters and Legion.  These teams have a long-running history.  After a tie in the first week, both teams will look for a decisive result.  The Possums, Armadillos, and PhoeGnomes will all try to take advantage of a loss from one of the league’s best.  They face the Goofballs, Hollidays, and Thunderwolves respectively.

Week 12 Elo Ratings

Week 12 saw several major shifts in the league’s Elo ratings.  Both of the top two teams lost, but Jeff lost fewer points since he was defeated by a better team.  Chris P. fell by 2.5 more points, and that gap was enough for Jeff to move back into first place.  Larry and Rick gained the most points this week.  Heather also moved further over 1,500.

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Kyle was able to move out of last place with his victory.  However, he is still a week or so behind the Goofballs for sixth place.

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Despite losing last week, but Jeff and Chris P. are heavy favorites this week.  Both have 70% chances to win.  Larry and Rick are also favored by around 60%.  These matches represent some of the widest gaps of the season.  However, last week proved that any team can win at any time!

Week 12 League Update

Leaders Upset; PhoeGnomes, Thunderwolves Dominate

CP Legion (7-2-2) vs.  RK Possums (5-5-1)

12BlackmonThe Possums were able to continue their turnaround against the Legion.  Chris P. entered the week with a chance to move into first place with a win.  Unfortunately, Rick had other ideas, and relied on his offense to once again carry the week.  Leading the Possums was Charlie Blackmon.  He had five home runs, nine RBI, and a SLG of 0.909 over 33 at-bats for the week.  Justin Upton and Khris Davis added a pair of home runs for the week.  Rick led the league with 12 total home runs.  Blackmon, Upton, and Davis’s power also translated to a 0.504 SLG for the Possums.  This was more than enough to top the Legion, who had down weeks in most offensive categories.  Only two Legion players with more than ten at-bats for the week had SLG over 0.500.  The Legion were also not stealing bases, and Rick completed the five-category sweep.

Chris was much better on pitching.  Drew Pomeranz had an excellent start, and Trevor Bauer added nine phenomenal innings of his own.  Chris had the second-best ERA and WHIP in the league.  However, the Legion failed to produce enough saves to overcome strong weeks from the Possums’ AJ Ramos and Zach Britton.  The Possums took saves, and also had a higher strikeout total over a few more innings pitched.  The Possums finished the week with a solid 7-3 victory.  Rick is now back above 0.500 for the season and only two games out of first place.  The Legion likely consider the week a missed opportunity, but the superb pitching is a good sign for future weeks.

JK Lannisters (8-2-1) vs.  LK Armadillos (7-3-1)

12OzunaThe week’s most important match saw the Armadillos take on the Lannsiters.  Neither team produced phenomenal stats, but Larry did enough to win and take over first place via tie-breaker.  Eight different Armadillos’ players hit home runs and set the offensive tone for the week.  Leading the way was Marcell Ozuna with three, and Ian Desmond with two.  Role players like J.R. Realmuto added steals, giving the Armadillos a balanced attack for the week.  Desmond was particularly strong, and had an OBP over 0.500.  The Lannisters had good weeks from Mike Trout and Derek Norris, but few other players contributed.  Bryce Harper added a pair of steals, giving Jeff just one category out of four.

Neither team had solid pitching.  The Armadillos endured atrocious games from Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, and Kenta Maeda.  The Lannisters fared badly as well.  John Lackey embarrassed himself in two starts, though Jacob deGrom did well against the lowly Braves.  The Lannisters took ERA and WHIP, but the Armadillos’ surplus of starters gave them easy wins in strikeouts, wins, and saves.  Ultimately, the Armadillos claimed victory, but both teams face injury problems and issues on the pitching side.  For now the Armadillos are in first place and have a two game tie breaker advantage on the Lannisters.  However, neither team can feel much confidence with the Legion, PhoeGnomes, and Possums putting up much better numbers.

HP PhoeGnomes (7-4) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-9)

The week’s best performing team was the PhoeGnomes.  Heather combined good offense with elite pitching, and earned an 8-0-2 victory.  Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, and Steven Wright led the way.  The trio threw 43 innings, allowed just 10 earned runs, and totaled two wins.  Heather had the best ERA and WHIP in the league by a wide margin.  She also amassed 82 strikeouts over 77 innings pitched, also tops in the league.  The Hollidays were able to tie in wins and saves.  This was more impressive considering Sean Doolittle and Brad Ziegler picked up two of those wins and had three saves between them.  Unfortunately for Chris M., the pair’s efforts weren’t enough to swing any full categories. 12Sale

On offense, the Hollidays weren’t able to mount a comeback.  The team posted decent power numbers but couldn’t record a steal.  They also struggled to produce RBI’s and had the second lowest OBP in the league behind the Legion.  Heather countered with a great week from Jose Altuve, who hit three home runs.  Odubel Herrera contributed a pair of steals, and Chris Davis added nine RBI and two homers.  This was more than enough to secure all five categories, and give Heather a comfortable win.  She is not within a half game of the league lead.  The upsets to the Legion and Lannisters bolstered her position in the standings, but she will need to continue to put together good performances to climb higher.

KK Thunderwolves (1-9-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (4-7)

The week’s final match paired the Goofballs with the Thunderwolves.  Both teams had impressive offenses, but Kevin was ultimately undone by a disastrous performance on the mound.  On offense, the two teams combined for 21 home runs, the most in the league.  Kevin had one more than Kyle thanks to great weeks from Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds, and Todd Frazier.  Each of these three hit two home runs each.  However, Kyle was able to counter with lots of RBI’s from Gregory Polanco and Prince Fielder.  The Thunderwolves also had more steals.  This gave Kyle two categories to Kevin’s three.

12PolancoAlthough the Goofballs had a good offensive base, these results were nullified thanks to dreadful starts from Nathan Karns, David Price, Jeff Samardzjia, and Jake Odorizzi.  Incredibly, these players had an aggregate ERA of 11.07.  Johnny Cueto brought down the team ERA despite giving up seven earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched.  The Goofballs finished with the worst ERA and WHIP in the league by a wide margin.  Kyle easily won the two rate categories and added victories in strikeouts, wins, and saves.  Kevin started many players but didn’t accumulate enough innings to be competitive in the counting stats.  Kyle earned a win, while once again the Goofballs are left wondering what they need to do to compete.

Next Week

Week 13 is the halfway point of the season.  The best match of the week features the PhoeGnomes and Armadillos.  Larry can hold on to first place with a win.  Heather could possibly take over first with a win and help.  The Legion and Lannisters look to rebound against lower-ranked teams.  The Legion face the Goofballs and the Lannisters meet the Thunderwolves.  Finally, Rick hopes to continue his winning ways against the Hollidays.

Week 11 Elo Ratings

There were few major changes in the Elo ratings this week.  Both the Legion and Lannisters won and gained a few points, but not enough to break their tie at the top of the list.  The Armadillos lost a lot of points in their upset.  Similarly, the Goofballs gained after their win.  Both the Hollidays and Thunderwolves fell even further toward the bottom, but neither lost many points since they faced far superior teams.

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This week the Legion are the biggest favorites.  They face the Possums.  Rick has been hot, so Chris can’t overlook his opponent.  The PhoeGnomes are the second biggest favorite.  Heather faces the Hollidays.  The best match of the week is between the Armadillos and Lannisters, which has Jeff as just a 56/44% favorite.  The Goofballs are also favored – they face the Thunderwolves.

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Week 11 League Update

Legion, Lannisters Dominate; PhoeGnomes, Goofballs Edge Competition

KG Capital City Goofballs (3-7) vs.  LK Armadillos (7-2-1)

After several weeks of tough losses, the Goofballs edged the Armadillos by a tiny 6-4 margin.  The Armadillos were close to forcing a tie, but Kevin had just enough pitching to secure the win.  On offense, it looked like the Armadillos would run away with the lead.  Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion had three home runs each.  Larry was tied for second in the league in home runs.  Ian Desmond remained hot and was one of nine players with a home run.  The Goofballs had ten home runs, including three from Freddie Freeman.  He also contributed a steal, giving Kevin his only offensive category.  The Armadillos’ dominant 4-1 performance seemed to secure the week.

11PriceThe Goofballs were able to rally on the pitching side.  David Price was excellent, pitching 16 innings and striking out 18.  Jake Odorizzi was also solid, striking out 17 over 11.2 IP.  The Goofballs staff threw 72 innings and had solid stats across the board.  The Armadillos had good performances too.  Kenta Maeda and Carlos Carrasco rebounded for good weeks and struck out 28 total over four starts.  However, a Trevor Rosenthal meltdown left him with two earned runs over zero innings pitched.  This gave Kevin an opening, and he took saves by one.

He also had two perfect bullpen appearances for 1.1 innings pitched on Sunday.  This gave Kevin a 3.00 ERA.  The Armadillos were 0.003 behind in ERA and had no relief pitchers make it into a game on Sunday.  If Kevin had one fewer inning pitched (or allowed one more run at any point), the Armadillos would have tied the week.  On Sunday, both Dellin Betances and Marcus Stroman suffered meltdowns.  Kevin skillfully avoided these traps, despite the temptation to start Stroman and lock up strikeouts.  The Armadillos had a strong Sunday effort from Fernando Rodney, but he was on the bench.  If he had been in the lineup, the Armadillos would have had a 2.98 ERA and a tie for the week.  In this case, Kevin had luck on his side and managed the upset.  The Armadillos’ loss also relieves some of the pressure on the Lannisters, who are now in first place and face the Armadillos next.

CP Legion (6-2-2) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (1-8-1)

In a week with two close matches, the Legion stood out for their dominant win over the Thunderwolves.  The Legion had the best offensive week of any team.  Chris P. had the highest home run and SLG totals.  He tied for first in RBI.  Leading the way were Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Devon Travis.  All three had two home runs.  Travis was excellent in limited duty, and nine other players had home runs for the Legion.  Christian Yelich added six RBIs, and Jake Lamb contributed four more with a 0.909 SLG.  Addison Russell had a nice week for the Thunderwolves, but it wasn’t enough.  Chris won all five categories with ease. 11Eikhoff

Chris continued his dominance on the pitching side.  The Legion had the most wins and strikeouts in the league.  Although the Legion had the second-worst ERA and WHIP in the league, their totals were respectable enough to beat the Thunderwolves.  Jerad Eickhoff had a good week, and was one of seven Legion pitchers who picked up a win.  Julio Urias was the only one of the Legion’s seven starters who did not get a win, and he didn’t allow a run in his start.  In contrast, the Thunderwolves had dreadful weeks from Drew Straily and Aaron Nola.  Zack Greinke and Michael Wacha were good, but it wasn’t enough.  Kyle managed a tie in saves, but it was the only category he didn’t lose.  The Legion enjoyed a massive 9-0-1 victory that was never in doubt.  The Thunderwolves are left looking for answers.  When Kyle’s pitching struggles, he is unlikely to win.  The Thunderwolves will need to address their offense to improve.  Meanwhile, the Legion look forward to critical matches against the league leaders.  If he can continue to be a dual offense and pitching threat, he will remain in the title hunt.

RK Possums (5-4-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (6-4)

After a series of wins against some of the best teams in the league, the Possums’ hot streak finally ended.  The PhoeGnomes managed a close victory in a hotly-contested battle.  Early in the week, things looked great for the Possums.  He tied for second in the league in home runs, had the best RBI, finished second in steals, and posted solid rate stats.  Josh Donaldson and Adam Duvall each had three home runs.  Charlie Blackmon contributed two steals.  Xander Bogaerts and Wilson Ramos stayed hot and had three home runs and a steal between them.  However, Heather countered with good performances of her own.  Paul Goldschmidt had three home runs, and Kole Calhoun, Kyle Seager, and Jose Abreu had two each.  It wasn’t enough to top the Possums, but her lineup output was more consistent and had better OBP and SLG for the week.  She also won steals, thanks to Eduardo Nunez.  This gave her three categories to Rick’s two.11Blackmon

On pitching, each category was a battle.  Rick threw far more innings and easily won strikeouts.  He also led the league in saves by a wide margin.  Heather countered with great weeks from Steven Wright, Jake Arrieta, and Julio Teheran.  Teheran was especially strong – he threw 16 IP, struck out 15, had an ERA of 0.00, and a WHIP of 0.31.  Heather started seven pitchers and had six wins.  In contrast, Rick started 10 and also had 6 wins.  Both teams finished second to the Legion, but one more win would have earned him a tie for the week.  Michael Fulmer pitched well enough to win.  He threw 5.2 IP and allowed a single run.  Unfortunately, his team let him down, and the Possums suffered a close loss.  The win was a good one for the PhoeGnomes, and both teams remain in contention.

CM Happy Hollidays (2-7) vs.  JK Lannisters (7-2-1)

The final match of the week featured the Lannsiters and the slumping Happy Hollidays.  After weeks of brutal match-ups, Jeff was able to relax somewhat this week.  The Lannister offense remained consistent.  They led the league in OBP and was second in SLG.  David Ortiz contributed two home runs and even sealed the steals category with a steal.  Several other Lannisters had solid weeks, despite the team’s litany of injuries.  Ben Zobrist had a good effort for the Hollidays, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the sweep. 11Ortiz

On pitching, the Hollidays fared slightly better with a good week from Adam Wainwright.  However, the Lannisters countered with strong weeks from newcomer Matt Shoemaker.  Lance McCullers and Jose Quintana were strong as well.  The teams had the best two ERAs in the league, but the Lannisters had more strikeouts, saves, and a better WHIP.  This was more than enough to secure the 8-2 win.  The Hollidays are in free-fall, while the Lannisters enjoyed a less stressful week before facing the Armadillos.

Next Week

Week 12 features several great match-ups.  The Lannisters and Armadillos battle for first place in their second meeting of the season.  The Possums look to rebound against the Legion.  Both teams are coming off strong runs.  The PhoeGnomes hope to continue to win against the Hollidays.  Finally, the Thunderwolves look to turn things around against the Goofballs.

Larry’s Injury Report

Note:  This is a special injury report from Larry, the manager of the Armadillos!  Enjoy!

Who Leads the Dirt mountain League in Injuries Right Now?

#8–As of June 17, the Armadillos are the luckiest team as far as injuries go (knock on wood).  They have no one on the DL and have just two players listed as DTD (Marte and Maeda).  Armadillos management attributes the team’s good health to a closely monitored dietary plan consisting primarily of Whataburgers (Chicago guys should think of it in terms of Epic Burger — and if you two haven’t eaten there, why are you living in Chicago?) and pizza.  “We don’t believe in all that stuff like salads, roasted vegetables, smoothies, fresh fruit, soylent powder, or illegal dietary substances (take note Possums).”  Texas beef (or BBQ) is the preferred clubhouse food.  Bartolo Colon would love to be a member of the Armadillos.  Contrary to rumors, Giancarlo Stanton is not on the 60 day DL, nor is he posing as a vegan in the Witness Protection program,  Sadly, he is warming a spot at the end of the Armadillo bench trying to figure out what went wrong??

#7–The Possums have fared almost as well and are missing only Michael Brantley on the DL and have only C. Maybin as DTD.  Of course, there is an ongoing investigation of possible widespread doping by Rick’s squad, and a few suspensions could be coming.

#6–The Legion has also fared well and have just three players on the DL at the moment:  Puig, G. Cole, and V. Velasquez.  Two good young arms – hopefully they won’t miss much time.

#5–The Happy Hollidays have been relatively healthy, but they list Mark Teixera (nothing new there), Phil Hughes,  David Wright (tough luck for a fierce competitor), and Shelby Miller (who brought Atlanta a boatload of prospects).  The Hollidays have one player suspended – H. Olivera.

#4–The Thunderwolves have four players on the DL.  C. Spangenberg, Domingo Santana, and Brock Holt have not been missed as much time as the biggest casualty – Yu Darvish.  Yu missed all of last season and most of this one, and is now back on the DL after Tommy John surgery.  Hopefully, for Kyle’s team, and for all baseball fans, he will be back at full strength soon.  He’s fun to watch!

#3–The PhoeGnomes have been hit pretty hard and have five players out:  Travis d’Arnaud, M. Sano, J. McGee, Tyson Ross, and, the latest Bat-flip Bautista (sorry – couldn’t resist).  T. Walker is listed as DTD and Dee Gordon is suspended (reportedly the Possums are trying to trade for him and H. Olivera).

#2–The Goofballs earned the second spot primarily because of Kyle Schwarber — with all the post-season accolades from last year fresh in mind, Kevin spent a first round pick expecting a big season from him behind the plate.  But it wasn’t to be — and with the dearth of catching talent this year – it has been a tough loss for his team.  Jorge Soler, S. Souza, and G. Parra round out his other players on the DL.

#1–Not the kind of #1 a team wants — but the Lannisters earn the distinction of being the team hardest hit by injuries as we near the All-Star Break.  Members of the Legion now have 6 on the DL including King Felix, a resurgent Rich Hill, Jonathan Papelbon (and he wasn’t even put there by Bryce Harper), A. J. Pollock,  Troy Tulowitzki, and most recently J. D. Martinez.  To add insult to his injuries, he also has Kris Bryant as DTD.  Not many teams could stay afloat with that group missing in action.

However, he remarkable thing is, despite all his injuries, Jeff has the Lannisters in a tie for first place!  This doesn’t bode well for the rest of the league.  I think we all need to make a move while we have a chance.  But we all need to hold our breath as well – every player, unfortunately, is just one pitch, one swing, or one step away from being hurt and joining all these guys on the DL.

Stay healthy my friends!

 

 

 

 

Week 10 Elo Ratings

Week ten saw more shifts in the Elo ratings.  The Legion and Lannisters are not tied for first place overall.  The Legion suffered a loss to a tough Armadillos team.  Larry gained 11.2 points and is not within 20 points of the leaders.  Jeff gained 8 points to tie Chris P..10Elo1

The Goofballs and Possums also posted solid gains, with corresponding point losses for the Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  Rick is moving close to 0.500, and Kevin is now in 6th place.  Heather dropped below 1,500, but not by much.  Her rating is now 1,497.10Elo2

Looking ahead to next week, the Legion and Lannisters are massive favorites, with 72% win probabilities against the Thunderwolves and Hollidays respectively.  These are the some of the highest ratings gaps we’ve see.  Kevin is close behind – the Armadillos are 69% favorites.  However, there is great opportunity for these lower ranked teams to gain more points if they can pull off the upset.  The closest match of the week is between the Possums and PhoeGnomes.  Heather is the 53/47% favorite, but Rick’s hot streak means he may have the edge.  A win wouldn’t vault Rick over Heather, but it would put him within striking distance for fourth place.

Week 10 League Update

Goofballs, Lannisters Return to Form; Possums Keep Rolling; Armadillos Vanquish Legion

KK Thunderwolves (1-7-1) vs.  RK Possums (4-4-1)

The Possums entered with the week hoping to continue their winning streak.  Kyle hoped to stop a losing streak and get back on track.  Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, it was the Possums who completed their objective.  Kyle relied on a strong pitching attack to carry the week.  Chase Anderson and Zack Greinke threw 15.2 IP and didn’t allow a run.  Mark Melancon and Alex Colome were stellar from the pen.  The Thunderwolves led the league in saves and ERA, and were second in WHIP.  Rick countered with roughly the same number of IP but had t
he edge in both strikeouts and wins.  Michael Fulmer recorded two wins with no earned runs and seven base runners over 12 IP.  He also became the first rookie pitcher since 1892 to have three consecutive games of at least six innings pitched and two or fewer hits in each game.10Fulmer

Ricks two pitching categories paired with his dominance on offense.  The Possums tied for the league lead in home runs, easily topped RBIs, and had the second highest SLG.  Once again, Rick’s middle infield led the way.  Ian Kinsler and Xander Bogaerts had four home runs, 21 hits, and two steals.  The Thunderwolves saw better play from Prince Fielder and good weeks from Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz.  However, it wasn’t enough, and Rick easily took all five categories and secured a comfortable 7-3 victory.  The Possums have climbed above 0.500 for the first time this season.  They are also far ahead of last year’s pace and may be emerging as a surprise contender.

JK Lannisters (6-2-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (6-3)

After difficult battles with the Goofballs and Possums, the Lannisters hoped for better luck against the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needed a win to keep pace with the top of the league and for potential tie-breakers.  Her offense was definitely up to the task.  The PhoeGnomes tied for the league lead in home runs and steals.  They were also near the top in RBI (2nd place), OBP (2nd place), and SLG (3rd place).  Chris Davis was the top contributor – he added three home runs in just 10 at-bats.  Jose Altuve added teals and a home run, as did Paul Goldschmidt.  The Lannisters had good power numbers but were not close in home runs, RBI, and SLG.  However, they displayed their typical strengths in OBP and SLG.  JD Martinez was particularly strong, with an OBP of 0.476.  Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, and Carlos Beltran combined for a SLG well above 0.600.  This was enough for the Lannisters to capture two categories and disrupt Heather’s improved offense.
On pitching, both sides had good performances and meltdowns.  Jon Lester was the clear MVP for the week, throwing 15 IP, allowing now earned runs, giving up 9 hits and no walks for the Lannisters.  Heather didn’t have any two-start starters, but Zach Davies continued to pitch well, as did Julio Teheran.  Jake McGee had a bullpen meltdown, as did Santiago Casilla for the Lannisters.  Jeff’s slight advantage in innings pitched resulted in a league-leading strikeout total and a tie for wins.  The team also had the best WHIP in the league and the second best ERA.  This was enough to capture four categories and secure the win.  The result was a close one and the OBP and SLG categories were in play up through Sunday.  This time, the breaks fell the Lannsiters’ way, and the PhoeGnomes are likely frustrated that the tie slipped away.

KG Capital City Goofballs (2-7) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-7)

After a series of close losses, the Goofballs were probably looking forward with a match against the Happy Hollidays.  However, Chris M. had other plans and launched an improved offensive attack in the battle of Chicago clubs.  Neither team bothered with steals, but the Hollidays produced the third best SLG in the league.  Chris M. also had the best OBP and a narrow edge in RBI.  Martin Prado was the star of the week with a 0.680 SLG for the Hollidays.  Kevin countered with strong power.  Brandon Belt had two home runs, as did five other Goofballs’ players.  DJ LeMahieu continued to be a strong presence at second base, and Starlin Castro made the most of a single start by hitting a home run.

10PradoThe Goofballs needed results on the pitching side to overcome the 3-1-1 deficit on offense.  Chris Archer racked up strikeouts and was okay for the week, but the David Price and Sonny Gray were the main stars.  These performances were mirrored by the Hollidays, who saw Aaron Sanchez amass strikeouts but allow runs.  However, the rest of the Hollidays’ staff did not fare well.  They had the second worst ERA in the league.  The Goofballs were slightly better, and they won strikeouts, saves, ERA, and WHIP.  This was enough for a 5-4-1 victory.  The Hollidays fell one steal shy of a tie.  Once again, the Goofballs were in a close battle, but this time (like the Lannisters) luck favored them.

LK Armadillos (6-2-1) vs.  CP Legion (6-1-2)

The week’s final match featured a battle for first place.  The Legion and Armadillos were virtually tied, and the winner would be guaranteed at least a share of first.  Normally a battle like this would merit the lead story in the League Update.  However, neither team performed particularly well for the week and the battle shifted to survival.  The Armadillos had good power and RBI numbers.  Ian Desmond continued his hot start, and made Larry’s trade look even better for the week.  Mark Trumbo added two more home runs, and Chris Carter slugged 0.727.  Chris P. didn’t have a counter.  Eduardo Nunez had two home runs, but only two Legion regulars had SLG above 0.500.  Jonathan Villar had a difficult week, going just 4/24 with a walk.   The Armadillos were able to sweep all five categories, though their OBP and SLG totals were not impressive. 10Desmond

Chris needed a miracle on pitching to save a tie.  The Legion had some hope when Steven Matz and JA Happ struggled in all four of their starts.  Only Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey were solid for the Armadillos, and the team had the worst ERA in the league, and the second worst WHIP.  The Legion piled up victories behind Tyler Chatwood.  They also won strikeouts.  However, the Legion’s bullpen continued to be a problem.  They ended the week with just two saves.  This gave the Armadillos an easy win, and enough to edge out a 6-4 victory.  Both OBP and SLG were in play up to the end of the week, but neither team could get anything going.  The Armadillos’ Sunday OBP and SLG were 0.275/0.289.  The Legion had an opportunity, but posted OBP/SLG totals of 0.313/0.345.  This wasn’t enough to swing either category.  The Legion left Joc Pederson and Javier Baez on the bench on Sunday.  They had a collective 4/9 day with two home runs.  The Legion could have captured SLG.  Conversely, the Armadillos’ bench failed to record a hit on Sunday.  The close win puts the Armadillos back in first place, thanks to a tie-breaker with the Lannisters.

Next Week

The Armadillos hope to remain in first place.  They face the Goofballs, who hope to build a winning streak.  The Lannisters take on the slumping Hollidays.  The Legion also get an easier match on paper when they face the Thunderwolves.  Finally, the red-hot possums hope to move into the league’s top four.  They face the PhoeGnomes.