The penultimate week of the season left the race for the title in a clear holding pattern.  Both the Wolf Spiders and Armadillos won, meaning this week will decide the championship.

The Wolf Spiders face the Kraken, and if they win or tie, they will claim back-to-back titles.  The Armadillos face the Possums.  Larry must win and Kyle must lose for the Armadillos to regain the crown.  The Kraken have openly declared their desire to decide the title, so Kyle will need to bring his A-game if he wants to achieve something only the Lannisters have done – win consecutive championships.

The Possums (who face the Armadillos) have some motivation as well – they will finish in third place with a victory.  The Goofballs face the Hares (who have nothing to play for) and they can make a push for third with a win and Possums’ loss.

The bottom of the standings are settled, with the Hares and PhoeGnomes in 5/6^th place.  The Kraken and Skyline Sluggers are locked into 7^th and last place respectively.  This means the draft lottery is already fixed, so each team can focus on earning a win without respect to positioning.

After two days, the Wolf Spiders have pushed to a small lead over the Kraken, but Chris has put up decent numbers.  The Armadillos are also in the lead, so the question is – can Kyle hold on, and claim the title?  Or can Chris make a charge, catch a few breaks, and ruin the dream?

The Battle for the Title

With everything on the line, the Armadillos and Wolf Spiders met in a battle that could determine the league’s champion for this season.  Both teams put up a solid fight, but it was the Wolf Spiders who sustained a devastating offensive attack throughout the week.  Kyle paired this with the best pitching in the league, and the result was a decisive win.

Offense

How did Kyle achieve this feat?  First, his offense put up the highest totals in the league.  He easily led the league in runs, home runs, and RBI.  In fact, Kyle’s 21 home runs were more than double any other team besides the Armadillos.  Their 62 RBI were double most of the rest of the league.

Leading the way was Corey Seager.  The Rangers star had 4 home runs, 6 RBI, and 5 runs.  Triston Casas had 9 RBI to lead the team, and Ronald Acuna Jr. added 8 RBI and 3 home runs.  Seven Wolf Spiders had OPS totals over 1.000 with at least 15 at-bats.  In total 12 Wolf Spiders had a home run; if each player had hit only one homer, this would have been enough to lead the league.  

The Armadillos had a good offensive week, but it couldn’t match Kyle’s.  Julio Rodriguez was outstanding with 5 home runs for the week.  Royce Lewis added 8 RBI.  In aggregate, the Armadillos would have beaten many other teams on offense.  However, Kyle’s attack was too strong and persistent for the Armadillos to hold up.

Pitching

This mean Larry had to rely on his pitching to try to keep things close.  The week started well for the Armadillos, with Merrill Kelly striking out 12 and allowing just 1 earned run on Monday.  Things changed on Thursday, though, when Carlos Rodon imploded and allowed 7 earned runs in 3.2 IP. 

The Wolf Spiders endured a nightmare start from Lance Lynn.  He allowed 8 earned runs in 4.2 IP.  Both teams experimented with spot starters, and each paid the price.  The Wolf Spiders were able to deploy Gerrit Cole for two starts, and he performed well.  He allowed just 1 earned run and struck out 16 in two starts.  Zac Gallen then sealed the week with a beautiful complete game, 3-hit shutout with 9 strikeouts.

By Saturday, the Wolf Spiders’ performance had all but assured the team a victory.  Kyle was able to cruise to a win, and he now sits 0.5 games ahead of the Armadillos in first place.  This marks the first time since Week #05 that the Armadillos are not in first place.

The Aftermath

With the outcome of this titanic clash now decided, the title picture is clear.  The Wolf Spiders control their destiny.  They need a win and at least a tie in their last two matches to claim the title either outright or via tiebreaker.  The Wolf Spiders must lose one or more games, or tie both games for the Armadillos to have a chance.

For Larry to reclaim first place, he must win his last two match-ups and hope the Wolf Spiders lose.  The Kraken have a chance to decide the title, as they play both leaders in their final two games.  Chris will do everything he can to defeat both squads, and his team post big numbers on the right week. 

This week the Wolf Spiders face the Skyline Sluggers.  Charlie’s squad is injured and needs some help on both offense and pitching.  The team failed to qualify for the ERA and WHIP categories in a humiliating loss to the Hares.  Charlie needs to adjust his line and put up a fight against the Wolf Spiders for the championship run to maintain its integrity.  Everyone must hope that Charlie embraces the challenge to upset the league leaders, and not simply give up categories by default or have injured players littering his line-up.

A Final Note

With little to play for, other teams deployed their own experimental strategies for the week.  The most hilarious must be the Goofballs.  Kevin’s squad put up solid offensive numbers, but absolutely obliterated the rest of the league in steals.  Corbin Carroll ran wild to score 6 of his own, and four other players had at least two, including… William Contreras?!  The team totalled 17, which has to be a league record.

Despite several close calls for both teams, the Armadillos and Wolf Spiders are set to meet in a match-up that will decide the season champion.  Rather than break down the week that led us to this point, I want to look at both teams to identify how they reached the top of the standings.  From there, I will breakdown the upcoming match, and identify a few key factors that will decide the week, and likely the season.

Incredible Winning Streaks

Both the Armadillos and Wolf Spiders have put together amazing winning streaks at different points in the season.  After losing to the Wolf Spiders in Week #01, the Armadillos rolled over the league to win 11 consecutive matches.  This is likely a league record. 

After the Week #01 loss, Larry was 1.0 game behind the Wolf Spiders.  At the end of the winning streak, he was 3.0 games in front.  The winning streak came to an end during week #13 at the hands of the Goofballs.  The Wolf Spiders won that week, to drop the gap to just 2.0 games.

While the Armadillos were steamrolling the competition, the Wolf Spiders initially stumbled.  They lost three weeks in a row from Week #04 to Week #06.  However, they were able to rally and built their own 6 game winning streak while the Armadillos were also undefeated.

Kyle’s streak came to an end a week after Larry’s, once again to the Goofballs!  Larry won that week, once again ballooning his lead to 3.0 games.  It looked like the championship was almost a foregone conclusion.

Instead of giving up, the Wolf Spiders began an inspired rally that has seen them remain undefeated over the last 6 weeks, with 5 wins and a tie.  This included a win over the Armadillos, and 3 weeks with scores that were almost too close to call.  Since week #08, Kyle is 10-1-1.  The result is a 0.5 game lead for the Armadillos, with everything on the line in a final match this week.

Besides the Goofballs, only two other teams were able to beat both the Wolf Spiders and Armadillos this year.  These teams might surprise you – it was the Possums and Hares!  The Possums’ and Hares’ success against each team will be discussed in more detail later.  

Six of the leaders’ 10 total losses came to the Goofballs, Hares, and Possums.  They were the only teams (besides the Wolf Spiders) to beat the Armadillos.  The PhoeGnomes were able to beat the Wolf Spiders, and the Kraken managed a tie.  However this still means that neither the Kraken nor the Skyline Sluggers were able to pick up a win against either team.

Statistical Dominance

How did the Armadillos and Wolf Spiders so thoroughly dominate the league?  The answer is clear, with each team being a mirror image of the other.  The charts below show each team’s ranking in each category.  The lower the score, the better – 1 represents leading a category.

Raw Totals:

Rankings:

The Armadillos have been an offensive juggernaut.  They are first or second in every offensive category.  In contrast, the Wolf Spiders are more toward the upper-middle of the pack.  In fact, the Goofballs have been the second best offensive team by this measure, thanks to their outstanding Rus and OPS totals. 

This means that the Armadillos have relied on their offense to carry them throughout the season.  However, both the Possum and Goofballs have been able to challenge them.  This explains their success versus the Armadillos compared to other teams.

Pitching is a different story.  The Wolf Spiders are at the top of the league in every category except Strikeouts.  The Possums are close behind.  The Hares also have strong Strikeout and WHIP numbers.  The Armadillos are more in the lower-middle of the pack here.  Kyle has won on the strength of his pitching, while Larry has struggled.  This also explains why the Hares have had some success – their totals are strong enough to give them a chance to win on a good week.

What are the totals for all teams?  The results are surprising:

The Wolf Spiders have the lowest total in the league.  The second-place team is shocking – the Possums!  In pure statistical terms, Rick has slightly outperformed Larry week-to-week, and is almost equal with Kyle!  The Armadillos and Goofballs fall slightly behind these two teams, with the other four languishing at the back.

What can explain these results?  First, grand totals don’t matter week-to-week.  You can win a category by one point or ten, and the result is the same.  Therefore absolute dominance over a single category might be a net negative if the roster isn’t balanced.

Second, pitching is especially vulnerable to manipulation.  For example, teams will often limit starters when they have leads in rate stats, or deploy scrubs when they are desperate for innings.  This is all normal behavior, but it does skew pitching stats to some degree.  For example, the Hares could have more strikeouts and IP if they wanted, but they often tried to limit damage to rate stats when these categories were already won. 

In general, offense is more consistent and linear throughout the season.  This gives the Armadillos an advantage, and you see it in the standings.  The Wolf Spiders are more variable due to their pitching.  However, when you pair up two teams with fundamentally different strengths, the results can vary wildly. 

For example, the Wolf Spiders lead the three-week season series with the Armadillos by a total of 22-8 categories.  This is largely due to Kyle’s timely hitting paired with better pitching. 

The more consistent teams will win the majority of the weekly match-ups.  The Possums couldn’t generate enough overall offense to complement their pitching.  The Goofballs couldn’t get enough pitching, but when they did, were nearly unbeatable.  The Hares had good pitching, but so little offense that they fell in the standings.  Only the Armadillos and Wolf Spiders have put things together week after week, and this is why they are battling for the title.

Who Has the Advantage?

Entering this week, the Armadillos are 0.5 games ahead of the Wolf Spiders.  This gives them a small advantage in the sense that a win all but seals the title, while a tie maintains their narrow edge. 

However, there is a critical area where Kyle holds the edge – tiebreakers!

Thanks to their 2 wins over the Armadillos already, the Wolf Spiders cannot lose a tiebreaker.  Even if the teams tie this week, Kyle will still hold the edge.  This gives him slightly more margin for error – he is still in contention if he ties for the week, and if he can secure a tied position in the final two weeks, he will win.

So what does this all mean?  Here are the two key factors:

1. If either team wins their last 3 games, that team will be the champion.
2. If the teams are tied at the end of the season, Kyle will likely be the champion, barring one bizarre scenario where he loses this week but Larry loses the two weeks thereafter.

The result is that both teams control their own destiny.  The winner of this week will be in control with only two weeks left to play.  After all the hours of draft prep, weeks of line-up management, and hundreds of added and dropped players, it all comes down to one final match.  Can Kyle do something that only the Lannisters have done, and win back-to-back titles?  Can the Armadillos break through for the first time since 2018?  Everything comes down to this week when these two teams battle for the final time.