JK Lannisters (14 – 7 – 1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (9 – 12 – 1)

With three weeks left every match is of critical importance.  The PhoeGnomes kept the race close by defeating the league leaders with a dominant offensive showing.  Heather led the league in home runs, RBI, and SLG behind a monster week from Matt Olson.  He had five home runs and 10 RBI.  George Springer added four home runs and Jose Altuve had three.  The Lannisters failed to be competitive on offense but executed a successful all-steals strategy and won the category.

The Lannisters had the best pitching in the league but couldn’t build the counting stats they needed for a tie.  Going into Sunday, the PhoeGnomes sat all their pitchers so the Lannisters had a chance to tie with a clean save.  However, Kenley Jansen was brought in inexplicably in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game on the road.  He pitched a clean inning and flipped WHIP, but did not get the save.  Heather earned the narrow 5-4-1 victory.

CP Legion (12 – 8 – 2) vs.  LK Armadillos (10 – 7 – 5)

The Legion had the second best week in the league behind the PhoeGnomes and closed the gap with a win over the Armadillos.  Kris Bryant led the way for the Legion with five home runs and 13 RBI plus a steal.  Nolan Arenado added three home runs and eight RBI.  Six players had steals.  The Armadillos failed to mount a challenge on offense and the team’s pitching couldn’t do enough to force a tie despite a solid six quality starts.  The Legion rode a great 14 strikeout week from Yu Darvish to earn the win and pull to within 0.5 games of the lead.

KG Capital City Goofballs (10 – 10 – 2) vs.  RK Possums (12 – 8 – 2)

The Possums also gained a game on the Lannisters after taking care of business against the Goofballs.  The Possums were not a dominant as the Legion, but they did enough to earn a win.  Ronald Acuna continued his quest for a 40/40 season with two home runs and two steals.  Justin Verlander had a good start along with Trevor Bauer.  The Goofballs were good on offense but the pitching again struggled.  Rick costed to a stable win.

KK Thunderwolves (9 – 10 – 3) vs.  SM Lasershow (4 – 18 – 0)

The Thunderwolves improved their record to 0.500 with a solid win against the hot Lasershow.  Neither team posted good offensive numbers but Kyle did enough to take three categories.  He was much better on pitching and fell just behind the Lannisters and PhoeGnomes in terms of overall performance.  Zack Greinke had two quality starts and 12 strikeouts to set the pace.

Next Week

Week 24 has two matches that help decide the title.  Right now the Legion and Possums are both 0.5 games behind the Lannisters.  The Lannisters own a 3-1 tiebreaker edge over the Possums and a 2-1 advantage over the Legion.  The Legion tiebreaker could change depending on the outcome of Week 24.  To increase the pressure further, the Possums and Legion will face each other in the final week.

There are dozens of possibilities, each depending on the outcome of the Lannisters / Legion match.  The Possums face the PhoeGnomes.  The other four teams will not factor into the race this week since they play each other and the Armadillos were eliminated from contention.  The face the Thunderwolves while the Goofballs meet the Lasershow.

There are three scenarios that can happen in the Lannisters / Legion match:

Lannisters Win

A Lannisters victory produces the fewest possible outcomes.  If the Lannisters win, the Legion are eliminated.  The Possums can then only win the title if they win in both Week 24 and Week 25 and the Lannisters lose in Week 25.  All other scenarios produce outright wins or ties that the Lannisters will win via the 3-1 head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.

Lannisters / Legion Tie

If the Lannisters and Legion tie, then there are numerous possible scenarios in Week 25 depending on the outcome of the Possums / PhoeGnomes.  The Lannisters will hold a tiebreaker over both teams (3-1 versus the Possums, 2.5-1.5 over the Legion).

Lannisters / Legion Tie & Possums Win

This situation produces the most possible victory conditions for the Possums.  They control their own destiny and win the title with a win over the Legion.  They also win the title with a tie against the Legion and a Lannister loss to the Thunderwolves.  The Legion win the title with a victory over the Possums unless the Lannisters also win (in which case Jeff wins the title).  The Lannisters also clinch the title with a win and Possums / Legion tie.

Lannisters / Legion Tie & Possums Lose

If the Possums lose, they are eliminated from contention.  The Lannisters win the title unless they lose in Week 25 since they hold the tiebreaker over the Legion 2.5 – 1.5.

Lannisters / Legion Tie & Possums Tie

In this scenario, the standings are the same as they are now with the Lannisters holding  a 0.5 game lead over both teams.  The clinch a victory win a win or tie since they hold both tiebreakers.  The Legion can win the title with a win and Lannister loss.  The same applies for the Possums.  If the Lannisters lose and the Legion and Possums tie, all three teams will be tied.  The Lannisters win since they hold both tiebreakers, and the Possums hold the tiebreaker over the Legion.

Lannisters Lose / Legion Win

If the Legion defeat the Lannisters, every team has a chance for the title and some bizarre scenarios emerge depending on the outcome of the Legion / Possums battle.

Legion win & Possums Win

This is the cleanest scenario.  The winner of the Possums / Legion match wins the title.  If these two teams tie, the Lannisters win with a victory over Kyle thanks to a tiebreaker.  If the Lannisters lose or tie and the Possums and Legion tie, Rick wins the title thanks to the 2.5-1.5 tiebreaker over the Legion.

Legion win & Possums Tie

Chris has the advantage if the Possums lose and he wins Week 24.  He wins the title with a victory over the Possums or a tie if the Lannisters lose or tie.  Rick wins the title if he wins and Jeff loses or ties Kyle.  Finally, if the Possums and Legion tie and the Lannisters win, the Legion and Lannisters will share the title because the tiebreaker would be even at 2-2.

Legion win & Possums lose

If the Possums lose and the Legion win, Chris clinches the title with a Week 25 victory or tie if the Lannisters also lose or tie.  Rick can only win the title with a victory and Lannister loss.  The Lannisters can win the title with a win and Possums victory.  If the Lannisters win and the Possums and Legion tie, Jeff again shares the title with Chris thanks to the 2-2 tiebreaker.

The most shocking scenario happens if the Legion win and Possums lose in Week 24, then the Possums and Lannisters win in Week 25.  This leaves a three way tie at the top of the standings.  It is also unresolvable!  Rick would hold the tiebreaker over the Legion 3-1.  Jeff would hold the tiebreaker over Rick at 3-1.  However, the Lannisters and Legion would be tied 2-2.  In this case, it is impossible to resolve the tie (unlike the other three-way tie earlier where Jeff won each match, and Rick also defeated the Legion).  The three teams would share the championship in this apocalyptic scenario.

As you can see, anything can still happen depending on the outcome of this week’s matches.  The Lannisters could clinch the title outright or fall into a deep hole.  The Legion must at least tie or be eliminated.  The Possums can’t afford to lose and need to position themselves before the final week.