RK Possums (14-4-3) vs.  LK Armadillos (16-4-1)

The week’s most important match saw the Armadillos meet the Possums with a chance to all but clinch the title.  However, the Possums were just a game behind and could enter a tie with a victory.  Despite a good start from the Armadillos, the Possums were able to take control of the match late in the week and earn a solid victory.  This has unleased chaos on the standings and spawned questions about tie-breakers, scenarios, and the exactly what the ESPN site displays.

Before getting into the standings, the Possums deserve credit for a gritty win.  The Armadillos started out hot with good offensive and pitching stats.  Rick suffered a series of meltdowns early and was out of the running in ERA from the start.    However, his bad starts were short and this allowed him to remain competitive in WHIP thanks to some good starts later, along with decent bullpen work.  Max Scherzer had up and down games, and Michael Kopech injured himself.  J.A. Happ Corey Kluber came to the rescue with good outings.  Meanwhile, the Armadillos piled up strikeouts and saves.  As noted before, they won ERA without much opposition.  Carlos Carrasco was stellar with 14 strikeouts and one earned run in his start.  Spot starters like CC Sabathia were okay, but didn’t pick up wins and hurt WHIP.  This left Larry with a 3-1-1 advantage.  In most weeks, this would be a problem for Rick because his pitching is the team’s strength.

Both teams enjoyed offensive success at the top of their lineups.  Trevor Story exploded for five home runs and Alex Bregman added three more.  The rest of the Armadillos struggled for most of the week, though, and the team needed much better performance from its role players.  Rick had a three home run week from Charlie Blackmon but no other player had more than one.  He still tied the Armadillos because he had nine other players with a home run.  Spot starters like free agent pick-up Jason Kipnis added home runs and RBI in bunches.  Rick took RBI with ease and won steals thanks to a monster four-steal week from Mallex Smith.  The Possums also won SLG and OBP without much trouble.  This was enough for a 5-3-2 win.

The win has created anarchy in the standings.  The Armadillos have the most wins in the league but have lost three of four against the Possums.  The Possums and Lannisters have the fewest losses in the league.  Larry has two fewer ties than Rick, and thus one more win along with one more loss.  If you treat the Possums’ two extra ties as a win, they are in a true tie with the Armadillos.  If you value outright wins more, then the Armadillos are in the lead.  Leaving aside both of these facts, the Possums won the head-to-head tiebreaker.  In the past, this has come into play when teams have exactly the same record.  However, that’s not the case this year since the Armadillos currently have the extra win.

The win also resurrects the Lannisters’ slim chances of entering the mix.  Jeff is now 1.5 games behind both teams with one to play against the Armadillos.  If Rick stumbles and the Armadillos suffer a tie or worse in the next two games, the end result would be catastrophic.  The same situation would arise in reverse if the Lannisters snuck into the tie, because Jeff would have fewer losses and more ties than the Possums!  The Lannisters could finish at 15-4-6.  Rick’s best tied finish would be 16-5-4.  Do you value the avoidance of losses or the capture of wins?  The Armadillos could end the year 17-6-2, also leaving them in a “tie” with both teams.  This nightmare three-team scenario is unlikely but within the realm of possibility.  If either team loses two of the last three, the Lannisters could possibly win the title outright with the same or fewer wins than either other team has right now!

The ESPN site only adds to the confusion.  Right now, the site lists the Possums and Armadillo as having 0.750 winning percentages.  This comes from converting ties to wins – 16.5 “wins” for each team in 22 weeks.  This ignores the idea that two ties versus one win isn’t necessarily equivalent.  Again, do you value loss avoidance or playing for the win?  Is a win and a loss really comparable to two ties?  Should the Lannisters get credit for three whole wins thanks to their six ties?  The Possums have three more actual wins than the Lannisters.  Should that count for something?

The three-team scenario is highly unlikely to come to pass.  However, the specter of a tie at the top of the standings is very real.  The best hope is that one of the top two teams loses or ties and renders the problem irrelevant.  However, if the Possums are the team to lose, this boosts the Lannisters chances of sneaking into the mix since they have one more head-to-head against the Armadillos in the last week of the season.  Jeff has a soft schedule with matches against the PhoeGnomes and Lasershow, so it’s very possible he could win out.  This week, the Armadillos and Possums face the Goofballs and Thunderwolves respectively.  Kyle’s team has played well this year and the Goofballs will never give up.  In week 24, Larry faces Sean while Rick battles Chris.  The Lannisters’ best hope is for a tie from either Kevin or Sean plus a Possums loss against Chris or Kyle paired with a tie somewhere, possibly in the crazy last week versus the PhoeGnomes.

The Armadillos and Possums can both eliminate the Lannisters by winning at least two more weeks.  It’s likely that the final winner will need to either win out or at least avoid a loss.  Rick probably has the edge if he can survive his week against the Legion.  However, losses or ties will be devastating to either team.  The final three weeks promise to be chaotic.  There is no margin for error from either of the two leaders.  Rick managed to get back in the race with his win, but the hard work is far from other.  The Armadillos will seek redemption and hope to avoid a split title.

JK Lannisters (11-4-6) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (4-12-5)

The Lannisters won a dominant week against the Goofballs thanks to a two home run and 12 walk week from Bryce Harper.  Despite struggles from Rich Hill and Carlos Rodon, the pitching staff did enough to capture all five categories.  The Goofballs had a nice week from Randal Grichuk, but pitching issues from Dylan Bundy and Brad Boxberger left the team in a deep hole.  The Lannisters’ win keeps them on the fringe of contention.

CP Legion (7-9-5)  vs.  KK Thunderwolves (8-12-1)

Kyle won a solid week against the Legion.  Adrian Beltre supplied three home runs and Rhys Hoskins added another trio.  Chris enjoyed nice weeks from Michael Conforto and Paul Goldschmidt.  It wasn’t enough to overcome Kyle’s good pitching.  German Marquez threw a great game and had 11 strikeouts in 6.2 innings pitched.  Kyle cruised to a 7-2-1 win.

HP PhoeGnomes (5-14-2) vs.  SM Lasershow (5-11-5)

The week’s final match saw the Lasershow continue to display a solid all-around attack.  The team explode on offense and led the league in home runs by a wide margin.  They also won SLG comfortably.  Leading the way was Francisco Lindor – he had five home runs, along with three from Scooter Gennett and Johan Camargo.  Sean’s team has improved a lot this year.  They have shown an ability to at least be competitive each week.  When things click, they are capable of pulling out big wins like this.

Next Week

The hunt for the title continues as the Possums face the Thunderwolves.  The Armadillos meet the Goofballs.  Larry has the advantage this week with Kyle’s recent good play.  Jeff faces Sean and can’t look past the Lasershow – they must win to stay in the hunt.  Finally, Chris and Heather meet in their final grudge match of the year.