2016 Year in Review

The 2016 season began with uncertainty.  Several teams made bold trades, others restocked in the draft, and one even had a new owner.  The Lannisters opened the winter as the favorite to repeat as champs.   Their main rival, the Legion, then traded several key players to the PhoeGnomes.  Many felt this made Heather the new favorite.

At the same time, the Armadillos hoped to rebound and return to contention.  The Possums and Thunderwolves were considered long shots, and needed good drafts to improve.  The Happy Hollidays were not considered a threat, but the Goofballs were on the rise.

As the season progressed, some predictions proved more accurate than others.  What factors contributed to the fortunes of each team?

Injuries

This season saw many injuries to key players.  Some teams were hit harder than others.  The Armadillos lose Clayton Kershaw for much of the year.  The Lannisters lost AJ Pollock for the season just after freezes were announced.  Kyle suffered the tragic death of Jose Fernandez.  The Goofballs faced a year with Kyle Schwarber.  Overall, injuries seemed to play a greater role in team success and failure this season.

Closers

Despite team’s best efforts, it was tough to find closers this season.  Every team had strong bullpen arms, but injuries and ineffectiveness caused constant shuffling.  The Legion and PhoeGnomes struggled to find saves while the Possums led the league by a wide margin.  However, no team suffered more than the Hollidays.  They had fewer than half the saves of the next closest team, the Legion.  With 24 closer slots and a limited number of relievers available, expect the bullpen to be a source of change going forward.

Offensive Fireworks

The league saw a spike in home runs this year.  Four teams had over 270 (JK, RK, LK, KG).  In the past, the Lannisters and Armadillos have been perennial home run leaders.  The Possums and Goofballs were more of a surprise.  The Lannisters led the league in four offensive categories (all by wide margins) and managed a SLG over 0.500 for the year.  Next in line were the Goofballs, followed closely by the Armadillos and Possums.  Heather led the league in steals, but saw her power tail off.

Pitching Heroics

Rick returned to contention behind his pitching staff.  The Possums led the league in four of the five pitching categories and finished second in the fifth.  His pitching was as dominant at the Lannister offense, and showed why he was in contention until the end.  The other surprise was the Legion, who continued to pile up strikeouts.  The Legion had a quantity-over-quality approach that worked some weeks and failed in others.  Overall, though, Chris P. did a good job putting together a staff from lesser names and staying in contention until the end.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately the Lannisters were victories after a season of staggering difficulty.  The young offensive core came through once again.  However, the Possums and Goofballs established themselves as contenders.  The Legion and Armadillos have deep, talented rosters.  The PhoeGnomes were a preseason favorite and can rally quickly if the players rebound.  Kyle had a good draft, but saw inconsistent performances from week to week.  Consistency could level out his team.  Even the Happy Hollidays have reason for some hope with new additions like Francisco Lindor.

Congratulations to the Lannisters on their third title!  The battle for 2017 begins with freezes.

The end of the 2016 season saw massive swings in the league’s all-time Elo ratings.  To start, here were the results from Week 25:

The Lannisters suffered an upset to the Happy Hollidays in a meaningless game.  Chris and Larry gained a handful of points, and the Possums ended the year on a positive note.  Of more interest is the year-over-year comparison.  The next table shows this season’s results compared to last year’s final numbers:

The Possums show a massive gain for 75 points from last year.  The Goofballs were close behind, gaining 63 points.  The Armadillos and Lannisters gained a few points.  Heather and Chris P. each lost a couple of points.  The biggest point losers on the season were the ThunderWolves and Happy Hollidays.  Kyle lost 33 points and Chris M. lost an incredible 117 points.

This chart shows the all-time rankings over time:

This chart shows how each team has fared over time.  The Legion fell from their league all-time highs and finished just below the Lannisters.  Jeff was able to capture the all-time lead from Chris by a slim margin.  The Possums show a nice upward trend this year, while the Goofballs shot up near the end of the season.  The Armadillos showed a steep decline in the second half.  Kyle fell off early but held ground for the end of the year.  The Happy Hollidays steep decline is also shown.

The most important thing to note is that the gap between the best teams and the  middle has closed.  The Legion no longer have the massive lead they build up in 2013.  The Lannisters are at a high level, but seem to have plateaued.  This is reasonable considering the team has won two straight titles and it’s hard to build many points from there.  The teams in the middle, with the exception of the Holidays, are grouped tightly in the middle.  With a winning run, any could challenge the leaders.