Week 12 saw several major shifts in the league’s Elo ratings.  Both of the top two teams lost, but Jeff lost fewer points since he was defeated by a better team.  Chris P. fell by 2.5 more points, and that gap was enough for Jeff to move back into first place.  Larry and Rick gained the most points this week.  Heather also moved further over 1,500.

Kyle was able to move out of last place with his victory.  However, he is still a week or so behind the Goofballs for sixth place.

Despite losing last week, but Jeff and Chris P. are heavy favorites this week.  Both have 70% chances to win.  Larry and Rick are also favored by around 60%.  These matches represent some of the widest gaps of the season.  However, last week proved that any team can win at any time!

Leaders Upset; PhoeGnomes, Thunderwolves Dominate

CP Legion (7-2-2) vs.  RK Possums (5-5-1)

The Possums were able to continue their turnaround against the Legion.  Chris P. entered the week with a chance to move into first place with a win.  Unfortunately, Rick had other ideas, and relied on his offense to once again carry the week.  Leading the Possums was Charlie Blackmon.  He had five home runs, nine RBI, and a SLG of 0.909 over 33 at-bats for the week.  Justin Upton and Khris Davis added a pair of home runs for the week.  Rick led the league with 12 total home runs.  Blackmon, Upton, and Davis’s power also translated to a 0.504 SLG for the Possums.  This was more than enough to top the Legion, who had down weeks in most offensive categories.  Only two Legion players with more than ten at-bats for the week had SLG over 0.500.  The Legion were also not stealing bases, and Rick completed the five-category sweep.

Chris was much better on pitching.  Drew Pomeranz had an excellent start, and Trevor Bauer added nine phenomenal innings of his own.  Chris had the second-best ERA and WHIP in the league.  However, the Legion failed to produce enough saves to overcome strong weeks from the Possums’ AJ Ramos and Zach Britton.  The Possums took saves, and also had a higher strikeout total over a few more innings pitched.  The Possums finished the week with a solid 7-3 victory.  Rick is now back above 0.500 for the season and only two games out of first place.  The Legion likely consider the week a missed opportunity, but the superb pitching is a good sign for future weeks.

JK Lannisters (8-2-1) vs.  LK Armadillos (7-3-1)

The week’s most important match saw the Armadillos take on the Lannsiters.  Neither team produced phenomenal stats, but Larry did enough to win and take over first place via tie-breaker.  Eight different Armadillos’ players hit home runs and set the offensive tone for the week.  Leading the way was Marcell Ozuna with three, and Ian Desmond with two.  Role players like J.R. Realmuto added steals, giving the Armadillos a balanced attack for the week.  Desmond was particularly strong, and had an OBP over 0.500.  The Lannisters had good weeks from Mike Trout and Derek Norris, but few other players contributed.  Bryce Harper added a pair of steals, giving Jeff just one category out of four.

Neither team had solid pitching.  The Armadillos endured atrocious games from Drew Smyly, Steven Matz, and Kenta Maeda.  The Lannisters fared badly as well.  John Lackey embarrassed himself in two starts, though Jacob deGrom did well against the lowly Braves.  The Lannisters took ERA and WHIP, but the Armadillos’ surplus of starters gave them easy wins in strikeouts, wins, and saves.  Ultimately, the Armadillos claimed victory, but both teams face injury problems and issues on the pitching side.  For now the Armadillos are in first place and have a two game tie breaker advantage on the Lannisters.  However, neither team can feel much confidence with the Legion, PhoeGnomes, and Possums putting up much better numbers.

HP PhoeGnomes (7-4) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-9)

The week’s best performing team was the PhoeGnomes.  Heather combined good offense with elite pitching, and earned an 8-0-2 victory.  Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, and Steven Wright led the way.  The trio threw 43 innings, allowed just 10 earned runs, and totaled two wins.  Heather had the best ERA and WHIP in the league by a wide margin.  She also amassed 82 strikeouts over 77 innings pitched, also tops in the league.  The Hollidays were able to tie in wins and saves.  This was more impressive considering Sean Doolittle and Brad Ziegler picked up two of those wins and had three saves between them.  Unfortunately for Chris M., the pair’s efforts weren’t enough to swing any full categories. 

On offense, the Hollidays weren’t able to mount a comeback.  The team posted decent power numbers but couldn’t record a steal.  They also struggled to produce RBI’s and had the second lowest OBP in the league behind the Legion.  Heather countered with a great week from Jose Altuve, who hit three home runs.  Odubel Herrera contributed a pair of steals, and Chris Davis added nine RBI and two homers.  This was more than enough to secure all five categories, and give Heather a comfortable win.  She is not within a half game of the league lead.  The upsets to the Legion and Lannisters bolstered her position in the standings, but she will need to continue to put together good performances to climb higher.

KK Thunderwolves (1-9-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (4-7)

The week’s final match paired the Goofballs with the Thunderwolves.  Both teams had impressive offenses, but Kevin was ultimately undone by a disastrous performance on the mound.  On offense, the two teams combined for 21 home runs, the most in the league.  Kevin had one more than Kyle thanks to great weeks from Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds, and Todd Frazier.  Each of these three hit two home runs each.  However, Kyle was able to counter with lots of RBI’s from Gregory Polanco and Prince Fielder.  The Thunderwolves also had more steals.  This gave Kyle two categories to Kevin’s three.

Although the Goofballs had a good offensive base, these results were nullified thanks to dreadful starts from Nathan Karns, David Price, Jeff Samardzjia, and Jake Odorizzi.  Incredibly, these players had an aggregate ERA of 11.07.  Johnny Cueto brought down the team ERA despite giving up seven earned runs in 12.2 innings pitched.  The Goofballs finished with the worst ERA and WHIP in the league by a wide margin.  Kyle easily won the two rate categories and added victories in strikeouts, wins, and saves.  Kevin started many players but didn’t accumulate enough innings to be competitive in the counting stats.  Kyle earned a win, while once again the Goofballs are left wondering what they need to do to compete.

Next Week

Week 13 is the halfway point of the season.  The best match of the week features the PhoeGnomes and Armadillos.  Larry can hold on to first place with a win.  Heather could possibly take over first with a win and help.  The Legion and Lannisters look to rebound against lower-ranked teams.  The Legion face the Goofballs and the Lannisters meet the Thunderwolves.  Finally, Rick hopes to continue his winning ways against the Hollidays.

There were few major changes in the Elo ratings this week.  Both the Legion and Lannisters won and gained a few points, but not enough to break their tie at the top of the list.  The Armadillos lost a lot of points in their upset.  Similarly, the Goofballs gained after their win.  Both the Hollidays and Thunderwolves fell even further toward the bottom, but neither lost many points since they faced far superior teams.

This week the Legion are the biggest favorites.  They face the Possums.  Rick has been hot, so Chris can’t overlook his opponent.  The PhoeGnomes are the second biggest favorite.  Heather faces the Hollidays.  The best match of the week is between the Armadillos and Lannisters, which has Jeff as just a 56/44% favorite.  The Goofballs are also favored – they face the Thunderwolves.

Legion, Lannisters Dominate; PhoeGnomes, Goofballs Edge Competition

KG Capital City Goofballs (3-7) vs.  LK Armadillos (7-2-1)

After several weeks of tough losses, the Goofballs edged the Armadillos by a tiny 6-4 margin.  The Armadillos were close to forcing a tie, but Kevin had just enough pitching to secure the win.  On offense, it looked like the Armadillos would run away with the lead.  Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion had three home runs each.  Larry was tied for second in the league in home runs.  Ian Desmond remained hot and was one of nine players with a home run.  The Goofballs had ten home runs, including three from Freddie Freeman.  He also contributed a steal, giving Kevin his only offensive category.  The Armadillos’ dominant 4-1 performance seemed to secure the week.

The Goofballs were able to rally on the pitching side.  David Price was excellent, pitching 16 innings and striking out 18.  Jake Odorizzi was also solid, striking out 17 over 11.2 IP.  The Goofballs staff threw 72 innings and had solid stats across the board.  The Armadillos had good performances too.  Kenta Maeda and Carlos Carrasco rebounded for good weeks and struck out 28 total over four starts.  However, a Trevor Rosenthal meltdown left him with two earned runs over zero innings pitched.  This gave Kevin an opening, and he took saves by one.

He also had two perfect bullpen appearances for 1.1 innings pitched on Sunday.  This gave Kevin a 3.00 ERA.  The Armadillos were 0.003 behind in ERA and had no relief pitchers make it into a game on Sunday.  If Kevin had one fewer inning pitched (or allowed one more run at any point), the Armadillos would have tied the week.  On Sunday, both Dellin Betances and Marcus Stroman suffered meltdowns.  Kevin skillfully avoided these traps, despite the temptation to start Stroman and lock up strikeouts.  The Armadillos had a strong Sunday effort from Fernando Rodney, but he was on the bench.  If he had been in the lineup, the Armadillos would have had a 2.98 ERA and a tie for the week.  In this case, Kevin had luck on his side and managed the upset.  The Armadillos’ loss also relieves some of the pressure on the Lannisters, who are now in first place and face the Armadillos next.

CP Legion (6-2-2) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (1-8-1)

In a week with two close matches, the Legion stood out for their dominant win over the Thunderwolves.  The Legion had the best offensive week of any team.  Chris P. had the highest home run and SLG totals.  He tied for first in RBI.  Leading the way were Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Devon Travis.  All three had two home runs.  Travis was excellent in limited duty, and nine other players had home runs for the Legion.  Christian Yelich added six RBIs, and Jake Lamb contributed four more with a 0.909 SLG.  Addison Russell had a nice week for the Thunderwolves, but it wasn’t enough.  Chris won all five categories with ease. 

Chris continued his dominance on the pitching side.  The Legion had the most wins and strikeouts in the league.  Although the Legion had the second-worst ERA and WHIP in the league, their totals were respectable enough to beat the Thunderwolves.  Jerad Eickhoff had a good week, and was one of seven Legion pitchers who picked up a win.  Julio Urias was the only one of the Legion’s seven starters who did not get a win, and he didn’t allow a run in his start.  In contrast, the Thunderwolves had dreadful weeks from Drew Straily and Aaron Nola.  Zack Greinke and Michael Wacha were good, but it wasn’t enough.  Kyle managed a tie in saves, but it was the only category he didn’t lose.  The Legion enjoyed a massive 9-0-1 victory that was never in doubt.  The Thunderwolves are left looking for answers.  When Kyle’s pitching struggles, he is unlikely to win.  The Thunderwolves will need to address their offense to improve.  Meanwhile, the Legion look forward to critical matches against the league leaders.  If he can continue to be a dual offense and pitching threat, he will remain in the title hunt.

RK Possums (5-4-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (6-4)

After a series of wins against some of the best teams in the league, the Possums’ hot streak finally ended.  The PhoeGnomes managed a close victory in a hotly-contested battle.  Early in the week, things looked great for the Possums.  He tied for second in the league in home runs, had the best RBI, finished second in steals, and posted solid rate stats.  Josh Donaldson and Adam Duvall each had three home runs.  Charlie Blackmon contributed two steals.  Xander Bogaerts and Wilson Ramos stayed hot and had three home runs and a steal between them.  However, Heather countered with good performances of her own.  Paul Goldschmidt had three home runs, and Kole Calhoun, Kyle Seager, and Jose Abreu had two each.  It wasn’t enough to top the Possums, but her lineup output was more consistent and had better OBP and SLG for the week.  She also won steals, thanks to Eduardo Nunez.  This gave her three categories to Rick’s two.

On pitching, each category was a battle.  Rick threw far more innings and easily won strikeouts.  He also led the league in saves by a wide margin.  Heather countered with great weeks from Steven Wright, Jake Arrieta, and Julio Teheran.  Teheran was especially strong – he threw 16 IP, struck out 15, had an ERA of 0.00, and a WHIP of 0.31.  Heather started seven pitchers and had six wins.  In contrast, Rick started 10 and also had 6 wins.  Both teams finished second to the Legion, but one more win would have earned him a tie for the week.  Michael Fulmer pitched well enough to win.  He threw 5.2 IP and allowed a single run.  Unfortunately, his team let him down, and the Possums suffered a close loss.  The win was a good one for the PhoeGnomes, and both teams remain in contention.

CM Happy Hollidays (2-7) vs.  JK Lannisters (7-2-1)

The final match of the week featured the Lannsiters and the slumping Happy Hollidays.  After weeks of brutal match-ups, Jeff was able to relax somewhat this week.  The Lannister offense remained consistent.  They led the league in OBP and was second in SLG.  David Ortiz contributed two home runs and even sealed the steals category with a steal.  Several other Lannisters had solid weeks, despite the team’s litany of injuries.  Ben Zobrist had a good effort for the Hollidays, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the sweep. 

On pitching, the Hollidays fared slightly better with a good week from Adam Wainwright.  However, the Lannisters countered with strong weeks from newcomer Matt Shoemaker.  Lance McCullers and Jose Quintana were strong as well.  The teams had the best two ERAs in the league, but the Lannisters had more strikeouts, saves, and a better WHIP.  This was more than enough to secure the 8-2 win.  The Hollidays are in free-fall, while the Lannisters enjoyed a less stressful week before facing the Armadillos.

Next Week

Week 12 features several great match-ups.  The Lannisters and Armadillos battle for first place in their second meeting of the season.  The Possums look to rebound against the Legion.  Both teams are coming off strong runs.  The PhoeGnomes hope to continue to win against the Hollidays.  Finally, the Thunderwolves look to turn things around against the Goofballs.

Note:  This is a special injury report from Larry, the manager of the Armadillos!  Enjoy!

Who Leads the Dirt mountain League in Injuries Right Now?

#8–As of June 17, the Armadillos are the luckiest team as far as injuries go (knock on wood).  They have no one on the DL and have just two players listed as DTD (Marte and Maeda).  Armadillos management attributes the team’s good health to a closely monitored dietary plan consisting primarily of Whataburgers (Chicago guys should think of it in terms of Epic Burger — and if you two haven’t eaten there, why are you living in Chicago?) and pizza.  “We don’t believe in all that stuff like salads, roasted vegetables, smoothies, fresh fruit, soylent powder, or illegal dietary substances (take note Possums).”  Texas beef (or BBQ) is the preferred clubhouse food.  Bartolo Colon would love to be a member of the Armadillos.  Contrary to rumors, Giancarlo Stanton is not on the 60 day DL, nor is he posing as a vegan in the Witness Protection program,  Sadly, he is warming a spot at the end of the Armadillo bench trying to figure out what went wrong??

#7–The Possums have fared almost as well and are missing only Michael Brantley on the DL and have only C. Maybin as DTD.  Of course, there is an ongoing investigation of possible widespread doping by Rick’s squad, and a few suspensions could be coming.

#6–The Legion has also fared well and have just three players on the DL at the moment:  Puig, G. Cole, and V. Velasquez.  Two good young arms – hopefully they won’t miss much time.

#5–The Happy Hollidays have been relatively healthy, but they list Mark Teixera (nothing new there), Phil Hughes,  David Wright (tough luck for a fierce competitor), and Shelby Miller (who brought Atlanta a boatload of prospects).  The Hollidays have one player suspended – H. Olivera.

#4–The Thunderwolves have four players on the DL.  C. Spangenberg, Domingo Santana, and Brock Holt have not been missed as much time as the biggest casualty – Yu Darvish.  Yu missed all of last season and most of this one, and is now back on the DL after Tommy John surgery.  Hopefully, for Kyle’s team, and for all baseball fans, he will be back at full strength soon.  He’s fun to watch!

#3–The PhoeGnomes have been hit pretty hard and have five players out:  Travis d’Arnaud, M. Sano, J. McGee, Tyson Ross, and, the latest Bat-flip Bautista (sorry – couldn’t resist).  T. Walker is listed as DTD and Dee Gordon is suspended (reportedly the Possums are trying to trade for him and H. Olivera).

#2–The Goofballs earned the second spot primarily because of Kyle Schwarber — with all the post-season accolades from last year fresh in mind, Kevin spent a first round pick expecting a big season from him behind the plate.  But it wasn’t to be — and with the dearth of catching talent this year – it has been a tough loss for his team.  Jorge Soler, S. Souza, and G. Parra round out his other players on the DL.

#1–Not the kind of #1 a team wants — but the Lannisters earn the distinction of being the team hardest hit by injuries as we near the All-Star Break.  Members of the Legion now have 6 on the DL including King Felix, a resurgent Rich Hill, Jonathan Papelbon (and he wasn’t even put there by Bryce Harper), A. J. Pollock,  Troy Tulowitzki, and most recently J. D. Martinez.  To add insult to his injuries, he also has Kris Bryant as DTD.  Not many teams could stay afloat with that group missing in action.

However, he remarkable thing is, despite all his injuries, Jeff has the Lannisters in a tie for first place!  This doesn’t bode well for the rest of the league.  I think we all need to make a move while we have a chance.  But we all need to hold our breath as well – every player, unfortunately, is just one pitch, one swing, or one step away from being hurt and joining all these guys on the DL.

Stay healthy my friends!

 

 

 

 

Week ten saw more shifts in the Elo ratings.  The Legion and Lannisters are not tied for first place overall.  The Legion suffered a loss to a tough Armadillos team.  Larry gained 11.2 points and is not within 20 points of the leaders.  Jeff gained 8 points to tie Chris P..

The Goofballs and Possums also posted solid gains, with corresponding point losses for the Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  Rick is moving close to 0.500, and Kevin is now in 6th place.  Heather dropped below 1,500, but not by much.  Her rating is now 1,497.

Looking ahead to next week, the Legion and Lannisters are massive favorites, with 72% win probabilities against the Thunderwolves and Hollidays respectively.  These are the some of the highest ratings gaps we’ve see.  Kevin is close behind – the Armadillos are 69% favorites.  However, there is great opportunity for these lower ranked teams to gain more points if they can pull off the upset.  The closest match of the week is between the Possums and PhoeGnomes.  Heather is the 53/47% favorite, but Rick’s hot streak means he may have the edge.  A win wouldn’t vault Rick over Heather, but it would put him within striking distance for fourth place.

Goofballs, Lannisters Return to Form; Possums Keep Rolling; Armadillos Vanquish Legion

KK Thunderwolves (1-7-1) vs.  RK Possums (4-4-1)

The Possums entered with the week hoping to continue their winning streak.  Kyle hoped to stop a losing streak and get back on track.  Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, it was the Possums who completed their objective.  Kyle relied on a strong pitching attack to carry the week.  Chase Anderson and Zack Greinke threw 15.2 IP and didn’t allow a run.  Mark Melancon and Alex Colome were stellar from the pen.  The Thunderwolves led the league in saves and ERA, and were second in WHIP.  Rick countered with roughly the same number of IP but had t
he edge in both strikeouts and wins.  Michael Fulmer recorded two wins with no earned runs and seven base runners over 12 IP.  He also became the first rookie pitcher since 1892 to have three consecutive games of at least six innings pitched and two or fewer hits in each game.

Ricks two pitching categories paired with his dominance on offense.  The Possums tied for the league lead in home runs, easily topped RBIs, and had the second highest SLG.  Once again, Rick’s middle infield led the way.  Ian Kinsler and Xander Bogaerts had four home runs, 21 hits, and two steals.  The Thunderwolves saw better play from Prince Fielder and good weeks from Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz.  However, it wasn’t enough, and Rick easily took all five categories and secured a comfortable 7-3 victory.  The Possums have climbed above 0.500 for the first time this season.  They are also far ahead of last year’s pace and may be emerging as a surprise contender.

JK Lannisters (6-2-1) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (6-3)

After difficult battles with the Goofballs and Possums, the Lannisters hoped for better luck against the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needed a win to keep pace with the top of the league and for potential tie-breakers.  Her offense was definitely up to the task.  The PhoeGnomes tied for the league lead in home runs and steals.  They were also near the top in RBI (2^nd place), OBP (2^nd place), and SLG (3^rd place).  Chris Davis was the top contributor – he added three home runs in just 10 at-bats.  Jose Altuve added teals and a home run, as did Paul Goldschmidt.  The Lannisters had good power numbers but were not close in home runs, RBI, and SLG.  However, they displayed their typical strengths in OBP and SLG.  JD Martinez was particularly strong, with an OBP of 0.476.  Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, and Carlos Beltran combined for a SLG well above 0.600.  This was enough for the Lannisters to capture two categories and disrupt Heather’s improved offense.
On pitching, both sides had good performances and meltdowns.  Jon Lester was the clear MVP for the week, throwing 15 IP, allowing now earned runs, giving up 9 hits and no walks for the Lannisters.  Heather didn’t have any two-start starters, but Zach Davies continued to pitch well, as did Julio Teheran.  Jake McGee had a bullpen meltdown, as did Santiago Casilla for the Lannisters.  Jeff’s slight advantage in innings pitched resulted in a league-leading strikeout total and a tie for wins.  The team also had the best WHIP in the league and the second best ERA.  This was enough to capture four categories and secure the win.  The result was a close one and the OBP and SLG categories were in play up through Sunday.  This time, the breaks fell the Lannsiters’ way, and the PhoeGnomes are likely frustrated that the tie slipped away.

KG Capital City Goofballs (2-7) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-7)

After a series of close losses, the Goofballs were probably looking forward with a match against the Happy Hollidays.  However, Chris M. had other plans and launched an improved offensive attack in the battle of Chicago clubs.  Neither team bothered with steals, but the Hollidays produced the third best SLG in the league.  Chris M. also had the best OBP and a narrow edge in RBI.  Martin Prado was the star of the week with a 0.680 SLG for the Hollidays.  Kevin countered with strong power.  Brandon Belt had two home runs, as did five other Goofballs’ players.  DJ LeMahieu continued to be a strong presence at second base, and Starlin Castro made the most of a single start by hitting a home run.

The Goofballs needed results on the pitching side to overcome the 3-1-1 deficit on offense.  Chris Archer racked up strikeouts and was okay for the week, but the David Price and Sonny Gray were the main stars.  These performances were mirrored by the Hollidays, who saw Aaron Sanchez amass strikeouts but allow runs.  However, the rest of the Hollidays’ staff did not fare well.  They had the second worst ERA in the league.  The Goofballs were slightly better, and they won strikeouts, saves, ERA, and WHIP.  This was enough for a 5-4-1 victory.  The Hollidays fell one steal shy of a tie.  Once again, the Goofballs were in a close battle, but this time (like the Lannisters) luck favored them.

LK Armadillos (6-2-1) vs.  CP Legion (6-1-2)

The week’s final match featured a battle for first place.  The Legion and Armadillos were virtually tied, and the winner would be guaranteed at least a share of first.  Normally a battle like this would merit the lead story in the League Update.  However, neither team performed particularly well for the week and the battle shifted to survival.  The Armadillos had good power and RBI numbers.  Ian Desmond continued his hot start, and made Larry’s trade look even better for the week.  Mark Trumbo added two more home runs, and Chris Carter slugged 0.727.  Chris P. didn’t have a counter.  Eduardo Nunez had two home runs, but only two Legion regulars had SLG above 0.500.  Jonathan Villar had a difficult week, going just 4/24 with a walk.   The Armadillos were able to sweep all five categories, though their OBP and SLG totals were not impressive. 

Chris needed a miracle on pitching to save a tie.  The Legion had some hope when Steven Matz and JA Happ struggled in all four of their starts.  Only Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey were solid for the Armadillos, and the team had the worst ERA in the league, and the second worst WHIP.  The Legion piled up victories behind Tyler Chatwood.  They also won strikeouts.  However, the Legion’s bullpen continued to be a problem.  They ended the week with just two saves.  This gave the Armadillos an easy win, and enough to edge out a 6-4 victory.  Both OBP and SLG were in play up to the end of the week, but neither team could get anything going.  The Armadillos’ Sunday OBP and SLG were 0.275/0.289.  The Legion had an opportunity, but posted OBP/SLG totals of 0.313/0.345.  This wasn’t enough to swing either category.  The Legion left Joc Pederson and Javier Baez on the bench on Sunday.  They had a collective 4/9 day with two home runs.  The Legion could have captured SLG.  Conversely, the Armadillos’ bench failed to record a hit on Sunday.  The close win puts the Armadillos back in first place, thanks to a tie-breaker with the Lannisters.

Next Week

The Armadillos hope to remain in first place.  They face the Goofballs, who hope to build a winning streak.  The Lannisters take on the slumping Hollidays.  The Legion also get an easier match on paper when they face the Thunderwolves.  Finally, the red-hot possums hope to move into the league’s top four.  They face the PhoeGnomes.

The Legion move into first place in the all time Elo ratings this week.  Jeff’s loss to Rick combined with the Legion’s victory gave Chris enough momentum to reach 1,600.  The Armadillos and PhoeGnomes made good gains as well, and the Possums picked up the largest pool of points for the week.

On the other side, the Goofballs fell further into last place, though the Thunderwolves and Hollidays failed to gain any real ground.

This week the Lannisters have the highest probability of winning versus the PhoeGnomes.  The Legion have a narrow edge over the Armadillos.  The Hollidays are slight favorites over the Goofballs, but the match is essentially a toss-up.  Finally, the Possums are on their way back to 1,500 and have a 10% edge over the Thunderwolves.

Dramatic Finishes Shake Up Standings

Week 10 saw four underdog teams attempt difficult upsets. Only the Possums were able to win, but two other dramatic finishes and a near-miss for the Hollidays produced an exciting week.

KK Thunderwolves (1-6-1) vs. LK Armadillos (5-2-1)

After winning his first match of the season, Kyle hoped to keep rolling against a tough Armadillos team. However, Larry’s offense jumped to an early lead in almost all categories. Leading the way were Mark Trumbo and Carlos Gonzalez. The pair combined for eight home runs and 17 RBI. Daniel Murphy added two home runs. The Armadillos totaled 15 for the week. This also translated into a win in RBI, OBP, and SLG. The Armadillos had the highest SLG and OBP in the league by a wide margin. Kyle had little to counter on offense, with only Nelson Cruz (3 HR) producing above average stats. Gonzalez’s pair of home runs on Sunday officially turned the tide of RBI, and the Armadillos swept five categories.

Despite his struggles on offense, Kyle fared much better on pitching. Jose Fernandez was outstanding, throwing 14 IP with 20 strikeouts and no earned runs. Zach Greinke and Aaron Nola were equally strong. Kyle had the best WHIP in the league, placed second in ERA, and tied for first in wins. However, Kyle needed a five-category sweep to save a tie. Despite the best efforts of Fernandez and Nola, the Armadillos took the lead in strikeouts and wins thanks to good outings from four Sunday starters. Despite a poor aggregate ERA, Jon Gray and Carlos Martinez each earned victories and piled up strikeouts. This was enough to win the one category Larry needed to avoid the tie. The loss is a difficult one for the Thunderwolves, who put up good numbers for the week. Kyle will hope that his improved play continues while the Armadillos breathe a sigh of relief.

HP PhoeGnomes (5-3) vs. KG Capital City Goofballs (2-6)

The week’s closest match saw the PhoeGnomes meet the Goofballs in a dramatic battle. Results were mixed for both teams on the pitching side. Neither team put up good numbers, thanks to meltdowns from Jimmy Nelson, Taijuan walker, Chris Young, and Tyler Duffey. Jeff Samardzjia was especially bad, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 IP. Both teams had the highest ERAs and WHPs in the league, along with the lowest wins and strikeouts totals. Heather managed to take three categories, while Kevin stole WHIP and posted a respectable saves total.

The Goofballs had better results on offense. Nine players hit home runs and 21 players saw action for the week. Maikel Franco had two home runs, and lesser name like Steven Souza Jr. and Derek Norris contributed as well. Kevin proved yet again that he is willing to seek talent and play match-ups to get the most production possible. However, the strong power numbers didn’t translate to RBI, where Heather was able to tie for the week. She also won OBP and steals, while Kevin took SLG. This gave Heather a narrow 5-4-1 win for the week.

This result didn’t appear likely going into the last game of the night. Heather trailed in RBI and was tied in steals. Kevin held the 5-4-1 lead, and seemed like a lock for the upset. However, Nolan Arenado performed a miracle and had three RBI and a steal. This swung two categories to the PhoeGnomes, and capped off a four home run week for the third baseman. Heather escaped with the narrow victory, and Kevin is left to wonder what went wrong yet again. The loss is even more upsetting for the Goofballs given the PhoeGnomes’ poor effort on pitching. The opportunity was there, but it slipped away. The win also keeps Heather close to the league lead.

RK Possums (3-4-1) vs. JK Lannisters (6-1-1)

The final upset try for the week belonged to the Possums. Unlike the Thunderwolves and PhoeGnomes, Rick was able to complete a close win against the Lannisters. Both teams posted jaw-dropping offensive totals. Eight Possums and nine Lannisters hit home runs, including five each from Adam Duvall and Mookie Betts. Three players each had three home runs, and four more had two. Betts had 10 RBI, Duvall had nine, and Charlie Blackmon, Ian Kinsler, and JD Martinez had eight each. Joey Votto managed two steals, and this was enough to clinch the category. However, Jeff left five home runs on the bench from Corey Seager, thanks to Manny Machado’s new SS eligibility. The Possums finished the week with the most home runs and RBI in the league, with the Lannisters right behind them. The massive power showing gave Rick five categories after a weekend push.

The Lannisters fared better on pitching, and had solid numbers through Sunday. Unfortunately for Jeff, the Possums put up such strong offensive totals that he had to gamble and start multiple pitchers. This inflated the team ERA and WHIP, and gave the Possums enough for the victory. Rick posted great saves totals and paired that with five different starters earning wins. The Lannsiters had the most strikeouts, but this would ultimately be their only category win. The Possums completed a massive pair of upsets over the league’s top two teams. He has made it back to 0.500 and should be considered a stronger opponent going forward. Meanwhile, the Lannisters must wonder what they have to do next week. After putting up a line that would have beaten every other team (like the Goofballs last week), Jeff will need to rebound quickly against the PhoeGnomes.

CP Legion (5-1-2) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (2-6)

In a week of close battles, the Legion and Hollidays put up a close final score. However, all ten categories were won by wide margins, leaving little drama to the match-up. Both teams had excellent pitching lines. The Legion dominated strikeouts and wins. Steven Wright, Kevin Gausman, Collin McHugh, Ian Kennedy, Gerritt Cole, and Josh Tomlin al made two starts and piled up counting stats. However, their ERAs and WHIP suffered, giving Chris M. easy victories in the rate stats. No Hollidays pitcher allowed more than three earned runs. Only four of Chris M.’s pitchers allowed any runs, and Marco Estrada was the best of the week with eleven strikeouts. Two Brad Ziegler saves were all Chris M. needed to collect three categories.

Chris P. countered on offense. The Legion reached double-digits in home runs, thanks to great weeks from Jonathan Villar and Evan Longoria in limited use. Villar added three steals, and was the player of the week for the Legion. Chris M. made a strong push, with four home runs from Jay Bruce and seen RBI from Matt Kemp. Unfortunately, the Hollidays fell short in all categories except SLG. Chris P. earned a 6-4 victory thanks to his edge in power. Chris M. should take some comfort in the improved offensive performance. The Legion earned a workman-like win and avoided the upset.

Next Week

Two matches take center-stage for the week. The Armadillos put first place on the line against the Legion. Heather looks to keep pace, while the Lannisters are due for a break after a tough loss. The Possums have a great chance to move above 0.500 against the Thunderwolves, who themselves are looking better. Finally, the expansion teams meet and hope to start building momentum with a win.

Rick put together these interesting stats for each team!  Thanks for contributing, and I hope everyone enjoys the Possum’s Corner!

Each team has strengths and weaknesses.  Rick took a closer look at each team’s performance across a variety of categories.  The numbers in the charts represent the number of players on each team who are in the league’s top 15 players, or have achieved x number of stats.

For example the Armadillos  have three players who are the the top 15 of wins in league.  The PhoeGnomes and Goofballs do as well.  Jeff and Rick have two each, and Kyle and Chris M. have just one.  The Legion don’t have any players in the top 15 in wins.

The Armadillos and Lannisters have the most players with at least 11 home runs, and the Goofballs are right behind them.  Kyle lags the group, with no players producing much power yet.

The Legion and Possums have the best WHIIP among their starters, and Heather is close behind.  The rest of the league lags far behind this pace, as each team as only one starter in the top 15, while the Goofballs have none.

The Lannisters and Armadillos’ home run totals also translate to RBI.  Jeff has seven players with at least 32 RBI, and the Armadillos have five.  Kevin is next up with three, and Chris and Rick both lack RBI production.

Jeff and Larry also far well in saves, but the league is pretty evenly distributed in this category.  The Happy Hollidays are the farthest back, with no player having at least 12 saves.  The Hollidays fare better on batting average, where they have four players in the top 15 in the league.  The Armadillos are also strong, while the Thunderwolves, Legion, and Lannisters bring up the rear.

The opposite is true for OBP, where the Lannisters lead the league with three players in the top 15.  However, every other team has two players in the league’s top 15 except for the Legion.

The PhoeGnomes shine in strikeouts, where four of their players are among the 15 best in the league.  Chris P., Chris M., and Jeff struggle here.  Rick is also near the top, while Larry, Kevin and Kyle make up the middle of the pack.

Thanks again to Rick for calculating these stats!  They are really interesting to look, and help each team know where they stand in certain categories.  I hope we can review these again as the season goes on.