Thunderwolves Get First Win;  Possums Overtake Armadillos;  Legion and Lannisters Take Care of Business

CM Happy Holidays (2-5) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-6-1)

After a disappointing start to the season, Kyle knew he needed a win against the slumping Happy Hollidays.  There is no way he could have expected to get on the board with a dominant 10-0 sweep.  The Thunderwolves performed best on offense, where a group of four players each hit two home runs.  Ryan Braun was the standout – he paired two steals with his two home runs.  Jonathan LuCroy provided offense from the catcher position.  Gregory Polanco led the team with nine hits, and also contributed a steal.  The Happy Hollidays had little offense to counter the Thunderwolves.  Ben Zobrist had a nice week, but he was the only player with an OBP above 0.320.  Kyle dominated all five categories and finished tied for third in home runs and SLG.  He led the league in OBP and was second in RBI.
The Thunderwolves pitching was less impressive, but it was good enough to earn another 5-0 category sweep.  Yu Darvish returned to form in his second post-injury start.  Jose Fernandez was also excellent, but Zach Greinke, Yordano Ventura, and Michael Wacha all struggled.  The Hollidays tried for quality over quantity, but none of the team’s starters were effective.   The team allowed 27 runs in 46 IP, including a disastrous week for Adam Wainwright.  Neither team has a lot to brag out on pitching, but the Thunderwolves did more than enough to earn the victory.

Kyle’s first win of the season was a long-time coming.  However, the return of Darvish along with better offensive production could help turn the team around.  The Goofballs and Hollidays are only a half-game ahead of Kyle in the standings, so there is plenty of time for the Thunderwolves to make it back to the middle tier of the league.

LK Armadillos (5-1-1) vs.   RK Possums (2-4-1)

Like the Thunderwolves, the Possums started slowly this season.  However, they have turned things around in recent weeks and hoped to keep things rolling against the Armadillos.  Rick took advantage of Larry’s weak offensive showing, but the Armadillos countered with better steals totals and a higher OBP.  Rick’s power came from some unlikely sources.  Wilson Ramos hit two home runs, as did Xander Bogaerts.  Adam Duvall also added a home run and four RBI in his only game played.  Four other Possums also hit homers, and rick built a commanding leader in the power and RBI categories.  The Armadillos countered with a rebound week for Starling Marte, who had four steals.  Ian Desmond added two more, along with a team-high 0.444 OBP.  This was enough to give Larry two categories to Rick’s three, before accounting for pitching.

The Possums and Armadillos threw roughly the same number of innings, so the winner of the week would be the team with the best individual performances.  The best pitcher for either team was Justin Verlander, who threw eight shutout innings with only five base runners and ten strikeouts.  Clayton Kershaw was almost as good, allowing two runs over 16.2 IP and striking out 17.  However, his good work was undone by disastrous outings from the Armadillos’ bullpen.  Craig Kimbrel and Jeurys Familia threw 3.1 IP and allowed six earned runs.  Their poor performance resulted in a tie in the saves category.  The Possums edged the Armadillos by two strikeouts.  Larry was able to win ERA, but Rick won WHIP.  This split-decision gave Rick the three categories he needed to ensure victory.

The Possums pulled off the upset and moved to within a game of 0.500.  The emergence of Xander Bogaerts is the most positive news for the Possums this year.  After heavily investing in Bogaerts through the years, the Possums now have one of the best shortstops in the league.  Meanwhile, the Armadillos are left looking for answers after a series of disappointing results.

KG Capital City Goofballs (2-5) vs.  JK Lannisters (5-1-1)

After upsets to the Hollidays and Armadillos, the Lannisters were the next target of an underdog.  The Goofballs played the Lannisters tough in the first match of the season, and this second round was no different.  Early in the week, the Goofballs’ pitching looked like it might deliver a victory.  The Goofballs threw 79 IP and had the best ERA in the league by far.  They also had the lowest WHIP, second most saves, tied for second in wins, and were fourth in strikeouts.  The staff was led by a pair of Rays, Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer.  The pair threw 20 IP, allowed three earned runs, and just eight base runners.  Johnny Cueto was also dominant, throwing 15 IP with an ERA of 0.60 and a WHIP of 0.67.  David Price and Tom Koehler were also excellent.  Unfortunately for the Goofballs, the Lannisters also deployed productive starters.  Rich Hill continued to play well, and was one of a trio of Lannister pitchers who struck out 15 for the week.  Stephen Strasburg and John Lackey each pitched two great games, and only Wei-Yen Chen was a bust for the week.  The Goofballs took both rate stats, but the Lannisters had more quantity and won wins, saves, and strikeouts.

Kevin had to rely on his offense to carry the week.  The Goofballs deployed an incredible 19 players and 11 of them hit home runs.  Todd Frazier and Lorenzo Cain stayed hot, as did Brandon Belt and Trevor Story.  Frazier was the best of the group, with two homers and two steals.  However, despite all of the home runs, the Goofballs fell short of the RBIs you might expect.  The Lannisters took advantage with massive weeks from Eric Hosmer and David Ortiz.  Nine Lannisters hit home runs, including three from Robinson Cano.  Buster Posey finally returned to form with a pair of home runs and a steal.  Hosmer and Mike Trout added steals, and Jeff tied the category.  Every Lannister with at least 10 at-bats had at least two RBI.  This was enough to give the Lannisters the win in HR, RBI, SLG, and OBP.  They led the league in all of those categories except OBP, where they were second.  Despite this level of production, the Goofballs kept things close until Sunday when the third Cano home run locked down HR and SLG.

The Goofballs fell just short yet again.  Here are the results they would have had against every other team in the league:

• Armadillos: Win 9-1
• Possums: Win 7-1-2
• Hollidays: Win 10-0
• Thunderwolves: Win 7-3
• Legion: Win 8-2
• PhoeGnomes: Win 7-2-1

The Goofballs would have beaten every other team, and the results weren’t particularly close.  The same applies to the Lannsiters.  In their two match-ups, the teams have combined for 61 home runs.  The entire league has hit 602 total.  This means that the Goofballs and Lannisters have hit 10% of the league’s home runs in just 2 of the 32 totals matches that have been played so far.  This also includes the home runs hit on Monday of this week.  Both teams will have to hope that they are not exhausted going into their next matches.

CP Legion (4-1-2) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (5-2)

The week’s final match paired the PhoeGnomes and Legion.  Both teams are at the top of the league.  The Legion hoped to stop the PhoeGnomes from further ascension.  For her part, Heather needed the victory to get back on track and for tiebreaker considerations.  Unfortunately for the PhoeGnomes, her offense sputtered while the Legion’s put up great numbers.  The PhoeGnomes were near the bottom of the league in HR and were next to last in SLG.  Chris was the opposite, and finished near the top in HR, OBP, SLG, and steals.  Seven Legion players had home runs, and Jonathan Villar was the best of the group.  He had a home, four steals, and OBP of 0.567 in 22 AB.  Brett Lawrie showed signs of life with a home run and a steal.  Heather didn’t have any effective counters, except for Miguel Sano.  He hit four home runs, but few other PhoeGnomes contributed much.  Chris won four categories with ease, but the PhoeGnomes were able to take RBI with a surprisingly high total.  This gave Heather a chance if her pitching performed.

Heather set a strong early pace by winning strikeouts by a huge margin.  Her staff threw 24 more innings than Chris’s, and racked up the most strikeouts in the league.  This number came with a steep cost, though, as the PhoeGnomes had the second worst ERA and WHIP in the league.  Chris wasn’t much better, and actually had the worst WHIP overall.  Heather also had the better bullpen, but Chris was able to tie the critical wins category for the week.  Only one of Heather’s four Sunday starters got a win, and the Legion were able to take the category and the overall win.  Heather had a chance to tie, but the pieces didn’t fall her way this time.  Once again, the Legion were able to take a close match and remain near the top of the league.  Heather is still a strong contender, and will likely fare better when her offense turns around.

Next Week

The Goofballs will look to stay hot against the PhoeGnomes.  Kevin hopes that his luck is better this time around, while Heather needs a win to keep pace.  The Possums want to continue to win, but face the difficult Lannisters.  However, Rick’s pitching often frustrates the Lannisters, and he has one of the better records against the defending champs through the years.  The Legion hope to keep things moving against the slumping Hollidays.  Finally, the Thunderwolves hope for win number two against the frustrated Armadillos.

Week 07 saw several interesting moves on the Elo leader board.  Jeff and Chris remained one-two in the ratings after their tie.  The league’s top favorites, Heather and Larry, each gained a few points and maintained their positions behind the leaders.

The biggest move of the week came from the Possums.  They gained 10 points and moved ahead of Kyle and out of last place.  Rick is also much closer to both the Goofballs and Happy Hollidays.

Next week, Jeff is the biggest favorite of the week with a 70% win probability against the Goofballs.  Larry and Chris are also heavy favorites, with over 60% chances to win.  The closest match of the week is between the Happy Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  Kyle is just a 4% underdog, and has a strong chance to pick up his first win.

Possums, PhoeGnomes Romp; Armadillos Keep Pace, Legion and Lannisters Inconclusive

HP PhoeGnomes (4-2) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-5-1)

The PhoeGnomes entered the week in a small statistical slump.  Heather’s team had cooled after a hot start, and needed a boost before entering another challenging set of matches.  Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, Heather received just the boost she was looking for.  The PhoeGnomes had the most balanced week of any team in the league.

Heather’s pitching was outstanding, leading the league in every category except saves.  Noah Syndergaard was phenomenal, pitching 14 innings, striking out 21, and allowing no earned runs.  Heather had only one starter allow more than two runs for the week.  If you remove the terrible stats from Shawn Tolleson, the PhoeGnomes would have had a 1.26 ERA over 64.1 IP.  Aroldis Chapman and Francisco Rodriguez had three saves each, and Heather tied for second in this category.  Kyle was unable to mount a serious challenge in the face of these dominant statistics.  He did lead the league in saves, but Heather still boasted a commanding 4-1 lead for the side.

On offense, Kyle was unable to turn the tide.  Only two Thunderwolves players had SLG over .430 (Nelson Cruz and Gregory Polanco).  The team lacked any consistent on-base presence, and fell below .300 for the week.  On the other hand, Heather delivered a solid all-around performance.  She finished in second in RBI, tied for second in HR, first in OBP, and third in SLG.  Jose Bautista took out his frustrations on the rest of the league with four home runs and nine RBI.  Brandon Crawford was strong, with two home runs and a .650 SLG.  The offensive showing was more than enough to bury the Thunderwolves, who continue to struggle on both sides of the ball.  Heather’s solid numbers are a welcome return to form, and bode well for future match-ups.

RK Possums (1-4-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (2-4)

After defeating the Happy Hollidays last week for his first win, Rick looked to keep things going against the Goofballs.  Unfortunately for Kevin, Rick made the most of his matches against the expansion teams, and earned his second win of the season.

Rick’s strategy centered on offense and volume pitching.  The Possums threw 68.2 innings versus just 53.2 for the Goofballs.  This resulted in the second most strikeouts in the league, and a tie for the most wins.  Rick’s bullpen was also strong, tying for second with six saves.  Max Scherzer was solid, but Rick had good efforts from several lower-tier arms like Chris Tillman and Matt Wisler.  Other starters were less effective (especially Jordan Zimmerman) but Kevin struggled as well.  Chris Archer was miserable for the week, and Sonny Gray is now in the DL after a rough outing.  Trevor May allowed three earned runs and didn’t record an out, giving him an ERA of infinity.  [Technically, undefined since you are dividing by 0, but you get the idea.]  Overall, Rick swept all five categories and set himself up well before accounting for offense.

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, Kevin’s hopes for a rally faded with a lack of RBI and odd power numbers.  Kevin tied for second in home runs with ten.  However, this translated into the second-fewest RBI in the league (23) and a SLG barely above .400.  Much like the Armadillos’ recent oddities, the Goofballs seemed unable to generate many doubles or RBI to go along with their solid home run totals.  Eight different Goofballs hit homers, but those same players managed just nine RBI in addition to their own home runs.  Some of this is a result of good players on bad teams, like Freddie Freeman on the Braves.  Meanwhile, the Possums were there opposite of the Goofballs – they lacked home runs but had good overall numbers.  Xander Bogaerts and Ian Kinsler had 20 hits and a combined SLG of .600 but just three home runs (all from Kinsler).  Melvin Upton stayed hot with two steals.  Despite Kevin’s home runs, Rick swept the remaining four categories, albeit by small margins.  The Possums earned their second victory of the year.  The Goofballs continue to slide, and hope that their power numbers translate more effectively in the future.

LK Armadillos (4-1-1) vs.  CM Happy Hollidays (2-4)

After tasting first place, the Armadillos lost to the PhoeGnomes.  They hoped to turn things around against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to rely on solid pitching for a victory, but was thwarted by offensive problems.  Larry relied on Marcell Ozuna and Jackie Bradley Jr. for most of his offense.  The two combined for four homers and Bradley had nine walks.  Carlos Correa added three steals, and role players like Travis Shaw and Daniel Murphy contributed a few home runs and RBI.  The Armadillos were in the middle of the pack in most categories, but Chris wasn’t able to capitalize.  The Happy Hollidays’ lack of power is becoming more of a concern after the team hit only four home runs, slugged below .400 and barely stayed above a .300 OBP.  Larry swept all five categories, but Chris finished just one steal behind for the week.

On pitching, the Hollidays fared much better.  Cole Hamels struck out 17 over 14.2 innings.  Aaron Sanchez and Adam Wainwright were also strong in their single starts.  Larry’s starters were the corollary to Chris’s staff:  They were largely ineffective.  Adam Conley pitched 11.1 innings but gave up seven earned runs.  Kenta Maeda allowed nine in nine IP.  J.A. Happ and Jason Hammel weren’t much better, and only Clayton Kershaw really lived up to expectations.  Chris won ERA and WHIP by a huge margin, though Larry somehow tied in wins.  The Armadillos’ advantage in innings pitched translated to a win in strikeouts.  This resulted in a decisive win, but the Hollidays were not without opportunities.  One more win, a few strikeouts, and a steal would have turned the tide.

JK Lannisters (5-1) vs.  CP Legion (4-1-1)

The week’s final match paired the defending champs with their long-time rival, the Legion.  Chris entered the week with newfound confidence in his team after several young players made positive strides on offense.  The Lannisters, like the PhoeGnomes, needed an offensive rebound after a few stale weeks.

The Legion received stellar pitching early in the week.  Danny Salazar and Carlos Rodon set the pace, and the Legion built a commanding lead in strikeouts along with solid ERA and WHIP numbers.  The Lannisters had an unfavorable pitching schedule for most of their starters, were there were few early-week games.  This gave the Legion the luxury of observing results and tailoring later pitchers as conditions dictated.  However, Jeff had solid stat lines from Stephen Strasburg and John Lackey in the early going.  He also piled up saves, and built a commanding lead.

On offense, the Lannisters had better fortune.  Monster weeks from Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, and Kris Bryant built huge leads in HR, RBI, and SLG.  Chris was closer and OBP, but the Lannisters were fairly comfortable there too.  However, Chris dominated steals in the same way the Lannisters captured saves.  This gave each team four secure categories, with only steals and wins realistically in play.

On the last day of the week, Jeff started Dallas Keuchel and Juan Nicasio.  This prompted Chris to start Danny Salazar.  However, Keuchel imploded and the Pirates were rained out, so Chris was secure in his pitching categories.  The Lannisters tried their best to capture steals, but came up three short.  Bizarrely, they left three steals on the bench when Ben Revere suddenly stopped being useless.

The Legion are likely happy with the tie, as a few breaks could have turned things to the Lannisters’ favor.  Conversely, the Lannisters were fortunate that Chris’s starters didn’t get more wins.  The week appeared headed for a tie after a few days, but both teams tried to maneuver to their best advantage.  The resulting match was fun and exciting, and both teams will have to look to the future to settle their differences.

Next Week

The most interesting match of the week pairs the Legion with the PhoeGnomes.  Both teams are in contention and this match will be especially important for the Legion, who lost in Week 01.  The Possums hope to keep things rolling against the Armadillos.  Jeff will try to avoid another tie or loss against the Goofballs.  Finally, the Thunderwolves will go for their first win of the year against the slumping Happy Hollidays.

 

Week 06 saw small shifts in Elo, but few major moves.  The top two teams, the Lannistersa and Legion, each gained a handful of points.  Both teams played much lower rated squads, so fewer points were on the line if they won.  The same can’t be said for the Armadillos and PhoeGnomes.  Heather gained the most points in the league with her win, while Larry fell by a corresponding amount.

The Possums had a nice gain of points as well.  Rick pulled closer to the Thunderwolves, who are now in danger of falling into last place.  The Happy Hollidays took a heavy loss of points since they were clear favorites over the Possums.  Kevin is now within striking distance of fifth place.

This week’s games feature the top two teams.  The math is a toss-up, with Elo giving each side a 50% chance to win.

Larry is a heavy favorite over Chris M.  Kevin is a slight favorite over Rick and Heather shows a strong likelihood of defeating the Thunderwolves.

CM Happy Hollidays (2-3) vs.  RK Possums (0-4-1)

After five difficult weeks, the Possums earned their first victory of the season against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. entered Week 06 after shocking the PhoeGnomes.  However, his luck didn’t last against the Possums’ combined attack.  Rick put up solid numbers across the board and took advantage of several Hollidays’ pitching meltdowns to enjoy a stress-free week.

Xander Bogaerts and Albert Pujols led the way for the Possums with four home runs and 13 RBI.  Bogaerts was particularly strong for the week with 15 hits.  Charlie Blackmon contributed seven more RBI, and the Possums easily won OBP, SLG, home runs, and RBI.  Chris was able to salvage a tie in steals, and Matt Holliday had a big week, but it wasn’t enough to turn any categories.  After leading the Hollidays to a win over the PhoeGnomes, Francisco Lindor endured a miserable five hit week.  Lindor has a .222 OBP and .192 SLG.  Yadier Molina and Ben Zobrist were the opposite, combining for 20 hits in 41 at-bats.  Unfortunately, they didn’t offer much power for the week, and Chris was forced to rely on his pitching.

Unfortunately for the Hollidays, several of his starters struggled.  Cole Hamels was the only Holliday to allow fewer than four earned runs.  The Possums countered with solid stats in a quantity approach for the week.  Rick had the second most strikeouts in the league and was third in saves.  His ERA and WHIP numbers weren’t great, but they were far below the Hollidays’ results.  Max Scherzer was clearly the standout for the week, with an incredible 20 strikeout performance.  Rick doubled Chris’s strikeout total for the week and cruised to the easy win.

The Possums have to feel good to be on the board for the year.  Rick drew praise for his strategy during the draft, but had yet to see any results for his efforts.  After finally putting together a complete week and avoiding a hot team, he will look to continue to build momentum.  For Chris, the loss exposes some issues on both pitching and offense that need attention before the Hollidays can climb out of the middle tier of the league.

HP PhoeGnomes (3-2) vs.  LK Armadillos (4-0-1)

After falling to the Hollidays, Heather needed a quick rebound while facing the league-leading Armadillos.  Larry hoped to keep his team strong after defeating the Lannisters.  Unfortunately, a series of bizarre incidents, brawls, and bad luck conspired against him, and the PhoeGnomes earned a close win.

On offense, both teams had clear category wins.  Larry easily won steals and RBI, but Heather dominated OBP and SLG.  These were strange results for several reasons.  First, the Armadillos had the second-most home runs and RBI in the league, but the second-worst OBP and SLG.  How were the Armadillos able to get so many HR and RBI without a corresponding SLG rate?  Why was the OBP so low if players were getting on base to drive in runs?  The Armadillos suffered from a massive feast-or-famine problem.  Jackie Bradley Jr. was 10 for 23 with two homers, eight RBI and a .783 SLG.   However, Giancarlo Stanton was 1 for 18 with no RBI and a .056 SLG.  Daniel Murphy stayed hot with an 11 for 25 week with six RBI.  Edwin Encarnacion was 1 for 14 with a .071 OBP.  Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Aaron Hill and Gregory Polanco were hitless for the week.  This schizophrenic performance gave Heather the opening she needed to capitalize on good week from stars like Jose Altuve and role-players like Odubel Herrera.  The teams were even in steals, so pitching would dictate who won the week.  Even this category was not without drama, and Jose Bautista earned a steal as part of a double-steal and Altuve picked up two on Sunday.

Both teams performed well relative to the rest of the league.  The PhoeGnomes had the lowest ERA of any team, and the Armadillos were second.  Heather was second in WHIP and Larry was third.  He also led the league in saves and tied for first in wins.  This gave each team a 2-2 split to go along with their 2-2-1 result on offense.  The outcome of the week rested on strikeouts.  If Larry won the category, he would win the week.  A tie would also result in a draw.

Heather had only two pitchers enter games on Sunday.  Francisco Rodriguez had one strikeout, meaning that Larry needed only four to win the week.  Craig Kimbrel did his part, recording two and picking up a save.  Roberto Osuna entered the Rangers/Blue Jays game but did not record a strikeout, and Jeanmar Gomez did not appear versus Cincinnati.  Fernando Rodney had two strikeouts on the bench, and Trevor Rosenthal picked up one against the Dodgers.  The narrow strikeout margin and Bautista’s Sunday steal secured an improbable comeback win for Heather.  She is now just a game behind the Lannisters.  The loss drops the Armadillos from first to third.

CP Legion (3-1-1) vs.  KG Capital City Goofballs (2-3)

Chris needed a victory to keep pace with the Lannisters and PhoeGnomes.  He found success on both offense and pitching, while the Goofballs’ excellent offensive stats were washed away by problems on the mound.  The Legion led the league with 13 home runs and five steals.  However, Chris had just four more RBIs than the PhoeGnomes (who hit just five home runs).  He also had the lowest OBP in the league.  Kevin countered with a massive week of rate stats, easily leading the league in SLG and coming in second in OBP.  Todd Frazier and Lorenzo Cain combined for six home runs and 18 RBI.  Only two Goofballs with at least 10 at-bats had SLG under .450.  Chris countered with monster weeks from George Springer and Yasmani Grandal.  Eight Legion hitters had homers, and Jonathan Villar contributed three steals.  Both teams were evenly matched, but Kevin secured a 3-2 lead on the offensive side.

Unfortunately for the Goofballs, their good work on offense was undone by disastrous pitching.  This was even more disappointing for Kevin since Chris didn’t put up dominant rate stats or saves totals.  The Legion dominated strikeouts with 87, 17 more than the Possums.  Chris also tied for the league lead in wins.  However, his bullpen wasn’t productive and his starters produced rate stats that were in the bottom third of the league.  Fortunately for the Legion, Kevin had the second worst ERA and worst WHIP in the league.  Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi were terrible for the week, allowing nine runs in nine IP.  Sonny Gray was even worse, allowing 10 runs in 9.1 IP.

Chris secured the close win, and the Goofballs are left to ponder what might have been.  With openings on both the ERA and WHIP categories, Kevin had a chance for the upset.  The Legion were able to win and ugly match-up and keep pace with the league leaders.  Both clubs will need sharper performances in the coming weeks.

KK Thunderwolves (0-4-1) vs.  JK Lannisters (4-1)

After losing to the Armadillos, the Lannisters were looking to get on track against the Thunderwolves.  Kyle was hoping for his first win of the year with an upset of the defending champions.  Something had to give, and Jeff earned a close victory.  However, Kyle can take pride in closing the gap late in the week.

The Lannisters’ offensive starters had mixed results throughout the week.  Manny Machado stayed hot with two home runs, but had only three RBI.  Bryce Harper walked 11 times and had a steal, but hit only one home run.  Eric Hosmer and Jean Segura combined for 19 hits, but with light power.  These mediocre results placed the Lannisters in the middle of the league in every offensive category.  It also gave the Thunderwolves a chance to remain competitive.

Unfortunately for Kyle, he suffered some of the same problems that that the Lannisters faced.  He tied the Lannisters in SLG but failed to make a challenge in RBI despite nine from Addison Russell.  The team was also light on steals.  This gave Jeff a 3-1-1 advantage, but SLG was only .0041 apart.  One or two more hits would have given Kyle the category.  One more home run would have flipped both HR and SLG and given Kyle the win.  However, Kyle can take comfort in the fact that he did not leave any home runs on the bench on Sunday and had only one on Saturday.

The teams were evenly matched on pitching as well.  Kyle threw fewer innings but had good starts from Jose Fernandez and Aaron Nola.  Fernandez in particular was outstanding, giving up one run and striking out 22 in 14.0 IP.  Jeff countered with solid weeks from Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, and Jacob deGrom.  However, both teams had several starters who struggle.  This led to split results with Kyle taking wins and ERA but Jeff winning both strikeouts and WHIP.  In fact, the Lannisters led the league in WHIP despite having just the third best ERA.  These mixed results were enough to give the Lannisters the win.  Kyle had an opening to win the match, but didn’t have enough firepower to get the job done.  For the Lannisters, the workmanlike win was important after the rest of the leaders kept pace.

Week 07 is the last week of the first cycle of games.  The most important match pairs the Legion with the Lannisters.  These two teams have led the league in Elo for several seasons.  Jeff will look to stay in first place while Chris hopes to show that his rebuilding efforts are already paying dividends.

The Possums hope to keep winning against the Goofballs.  The Hollidays will also look to get back on track against the Armadillos.  Heather will try to take advantage of the Legion/Lannisters battle and gain a game on at least one team against the Thunderwolves.

Two upsets rocked the league’s Elo ratings in Week 05.  Jeff lost the most points after a close battle with the Armadillos.  The PhoeGnomes were not far behind, losing almost 11 points to the Happy Hollidays.  Chris P. held on to second place in All-Time Elo after his victory over the Possums.  The Goofballs also enjoyed a nice boost, moving into sixth place:

Week 06 offers several intriguing match-ups.  The Lannisters are heavy favorites over the Thunderwolves.  The Legion are also above 65% versus the Goofballs.  The closest match pits the Happy Hollidays against the Possums.  The second most competitive match-up is the Armadillos versus the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needs to rebound to keep building her Elo.  Larry looks to move closer to Chris P. and Jeff near the top of the league.

Fewer than 13 points separate the top three teams.  A Lannister loss paired with a win by either the Armadillos or Legion will likely result in a new top Elo squad.  However, none of the leaders will gain many points with a victory, so the status-quo will continue if all win.

Armadillos Edge Lannisters; Upsets Disrupt Standings

The fifth week of the fantasy season saw an anticipated match between the Lannisters and Armadillos.  Larry won the first battle of what may be a season-long war.  Meanwhile, the Happy Hollidays staged an upset over the PhoeGnomes.  The Goofballs and Legion also picked up victories, pushing the Thunderwolves and Possums farther down the leader boards.

LK Armadillos (3-0-1) vs.  JK Lannisters (4-0)

The week’s most interesting match saw the Lannisters and Armadillos battle for the early lead for first place.  Jeff had won four straight weeks to start the year.  Larry was also unbeaten with a single tie.  Both teams produced league-leading offensive stats.  The Armadillos and Lannisters tied for the league lead in RBI with 39.  Larry led the league with 16 home runs and Jeff tied with Chris for second with 13.  The Lannisters led the league in OBP while Larry was third.  He easily won SLG while Jeff finished third.  Overall, both teams put up monster numbers, but Larry had the slight power edge to take a 3-1-1 lead before looking at pitching.

The Armadillos were led by Rougned Odor and Chris Carter, who had three home runs each.  Four other Armadillos had two home runs, and Gregory Polanco and Mark Trumbo added one each.  Billy Hamilton contributed two steals to give Larry the easy category win.  However, Jeff was able to answer with excellent weeks from Robinson Cano with four home runs and nine RBI.  Bryce Harper added 13 walks.  Unfortunately for the Lannisters, the Armadillos were able to add just a few more home runs along with a higher overall SLG.

On pitching, both teams were evenly matched.  Jeff deployed as many starters as he could, and managed to win strikeouts.  However, Larry managed more wins despite fewer starters and close races for ERA and WHIP.  He was able to take both rate categories, which was enough to secure the win.  Jeff could have secured a tie with slightly better luck:  He was one RBI and one win away.  Given the disgraceful performance of Felix Hernandez and a rare Jacob deGrom dud outing, the Lannisters are left with thoughts of what might have been.  The Lannisters posted numbers good enough to have beaten any other team for the week by a comfortable margin.  The loss should give comfort to the Possums and Goofballs, who were defeated by the Lannisters despite posting numbers good enough to have won against other teams.

For now, the Armadillos have taken over first place and remain unbeaten.  The win also gives Larry the early edge in potential tie-breakers.  However, there are three more match-ups between the two teams, both of which remain title contenders.

CM Happy Hollidays (1-3) vs.  HP PhoeGnomes (2-2)

The biggest upset of the week belonged to the Happy Hollidays, who were able to record their second win of the year against the PhoeGnomes.  Chris M. opened the season with a win before dropping three straight games.  Heather looked to continue to rebound after her loss to the Lannisters two weeks prior.  Unfortunately for Heather, Chris put together an excellent week despite managing while in Europe on vacation!

Chris’s victory was led by his offense, which won four of five categories.  The star for the week was Ben Zobrist who had four home runs, 15 RBI, and five walks.  Francisco Lindor and Stephen Piscotty combined for 13 hits and two home runs.  Heather tried to counter with good weeks from several players, including the red-hot Jose Altuve.  However, Paul Goldschmidt managed just three hits and a .182 SLG.  Altuve’s four steals were easily enough to win the category (and lead the league) but the rest of Heather’s bats just weren’t working this week.  Chris took a solid win on offense.

On the pitching side, Heather was more competitive.  Jake Arrieta and Patrick Corbin were both excellent, combining for an ERA under 2.00 and a solid whip.  Madison Bumgarner continued to turn things around, striking out 10 in just 7.1 IP.  Chris was able to counter with a brilliant week from Marco Estrada, who threw 13 IP, struck out 11, and had a 1.38 ERA and .62 WHIP.  Heather was able to win strikeouts and wins, but her advantage in innings pitched did not translate into victories in ERA or WHIP.  Chris took both categories with a quality-over-quantity strategy.  Despite the 3-2 edge on pitching, Heather was unable to close the gap and Chris took a solid 6-4 win.  The improved offensive performance is good news for the Hollidays, who had been ice-cold lately.  Heather can take comfort in putting up good numbers that weren’t quite enough to pull out the win.

RK Possums (0-3-1) vs.  CP Legion (2-1-1)

Although the Lannisters and Armadillos had the best offensive numbers of the week, Chris P. put up numbers that were almost as good.  Chris tied for second in the league with 13 HR and 4 steals.  He was second outright in SLG, third in OBP, and tied for third in RBI.  Overall, this was good enough to take a dominant 5-0 victory over the Possums, who posted lackluster totals across the board.  Rick’s squad was last in RBI, OBP, and SLG.  He tied for last in HR.  Josh Donaldson had a miserable week, going just 4/24 with a .167 SLG.  Chris responded with a monster week from Joc Pederson, who had three home runs.  Seven other Legion players got into the act, including Christian Yelich who had three homers and a steal.  The Legion’s part-timers made the most of their opportunities, too:  Justin Bour and Kolton Wong had two home runs in just six at-bats.

On pitching, neither side was outstanding.  The Legion endured dreadful weeks from Gerrit Cole and Matt Moore.  These were offset by Drew Pomeranz and heavy use for reliever Steve Cishek, who saved three games.  The Possums’ aces Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander combined for a 12.60 ERA over 10 innings.  However, the Possums’ bullpen was very good.  They recorded five saves, and won the category.  They also helped Rick win WHIP.  However, this wasn’t enough to help the Possums overcome their offensive deficit.  Chris took the comfortable victory and improved to 3-1-1.  The offensive performance is even more impressive considering the Legion dealt away many of their best offensive weapons.  The development of players like Pederson will determine how quickly the Legion return as title front-runners.  If they can improve their pitching, they may be able to skip rebuilding entirely and compete today.

KG Capital City Goofballs (1-3) vs.  KK Thunderwolves (0-3-1)

The week’s final match saw the Goofballs battle the Thunderwolves.  Both teams needed victories to get back on track, and each team’s offense answered the call.  Kyle and Kevin both had solid home run totals, but Kyle won the day thanks to bid weeks from Jonathan Lucroy and Brandon Phillips.  Kyle had 12 total home runs, though Kevin made it close thanks to a three-homer week from Yoenis Cespedes.  Brandon Belt drew seven walks for the Goofballs, who used a staggering twenty-two players for the week.  Of these 22, only two did not record a hit (in a combined five at-bats).  Kevin was unafraid to dig deep for talent, and he was rewarded with wins in OBP, SLG, and RBI.  The two teams tied in steals, but Kevin held a 3-1-1 advantage before pitching.

Kyle fared better on the pitching side and led the league in strikeout and saves.  Alex Colome was especially good, recording four saves for the Thunderwolves.  Michael Wacha and Aaron Nola struck out 26 in 15 IP.  However, Yordano Ventura had a terrible week, and Edinson Volquez wasn’t much better in two starts.  Kevin was able to take WHIP and ERA by virtue of strong performances from Chris Archer and Jeff Samardzija.  This was enough to give Kevin a well-earned second victory for the season.  The Goofballs were able to right the ship after several weeks of bad luck.  For the Thunderwolves, the improved offensive performance is a good sign.  However, they need to put together a complete week to earn their first victory of the year.

Next Week

The week’s most interesting match-up pairs the first-place Armadillos with the PhoeGnomes.  Heather needs to rebound and Larry wants to consolidate his grip on the lead.  These teams both pile up strikeouts, so hitting will likely decide the victory.

The Thunderwolves are still looking for their first win, but face the Lannisters.  Jeff’s team has dominated this match-up through the years, but anything can happen.  The Goofballs and Legion meet in yet another interesting match.  Kevin has shown his versatility, but the Legion may be stronger than we thought despite their trades.  Finally, the Possums will face the Hollidays, who hope to start a winning streak.

Rules Note

This is a reminder that relief pitchers can’t be used in starter slots.  If the reliever is primarily a starter, this is fine.  However, if he is working from the bullpen, he must be in a RP slot.  Please make sure you aren’t inadvertently using a fourth reliever.

After four weeks of play, the league’s Elo ratings are beginning to stabilize.  The league’s leaders all gained points this week, with the PhoeGnomes continuing to rack up the most additional points.

The Lannisters are threatening to become the first team to breach the 1,600 boundary this season.  The Legion were also able to rally and stay just ahead of the surging Armadillos.  Chris P. is the biggest favorite of the week, with a 71% change to beat the Possums.

Jeff and Larry are close, with the Lannisters holding a slim 55%/45% advantage.  The PhoeGnomes and Happy Hollidays have similar odds.  However, the closest match belongs to the Goofballs and Thunderwolves, who are a virtual tie at 51%/49%.

HP PhoeGnomes (2-1) vs. RK Possums (0-2-1)

The Possums entered their contest with the PhoeGnomes as heavy underdogs.  However, Rick was able to put together a solid overall performance and challenge for the victory.  On offense, he enjoyed a trio of two-home run weeks from Josh Donaldson, Michael Conforto, and Albert Pujols.  However, Heather was able to counter with a massive four-home run week from Nolan Arenado.  For the Possums, Xander Bogaerts contributed three steals, giving Rick and easy category win.  However, three other categories fell to the PhoeGnomes thanks to Arenado.  Rick was able to win SLG, but faced a 3-2 deficit.

Heather gained further separation on pitching.  Her staff threw just two more innings than the Possums but recorded 12 more strikeouts.  Four PhoeGnomes pitchers threw more than 10 strikeouts, including a monster week from Madison Bumgarner.  Noah Syndergaard was also effective, despite giving up seven earned runs in 12.1 IP.  Max Scherzer was a bright spot for the Possums, with 16 strikeouts over 13 IP.  However, Ricky Nolasco gave up nine earned runs in 13 IP, which gave Heather an easy win in ERA.  The Possums were able to take WHIP and tie saves, but the damage was done and Heather secured a 6-3-1 win.  The PhoeGnomes were able to bounce back after a difficult week versus the Lannisters.  The Possums are left searching for their first victory.

JK Lannisters (3-0) vs. CM Happy Hollidays (1-2)

Coming off three consecutive wins, the Lannisters faced off against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hoped to get back on track against the league’s early leader.  Unfortunately, Jeff’s pitching staff had other ideas.  After several seasons of relying on their offense, the Lannisters have instead leaned on pitching early in the season.  Tanner Roark continued his early dominance, allowing how runs and just two hits over seven innings.  Five other Lannister starters allowed two earned runs or fewer in their starts.  Jon Lester and Stephen Strasburg combined to strike out 13.  These performances gave the Lannisters comfortable margins in strikeouts, wins, ERA, and WHIP.  The Happy Hollidays weren’t able to mount a challenge for saves, either, and Jeff recorded a comfortable 5-0 sweep.

On offense, Chris M. had some room to maneuver as the Lannisters suffered a down week.  However, the Hollidays suffered the lowest OBP and SLG in the league.  They were next-to-last in RBI and home runs as well.  The Lannisters fared slightly better, with eight home runs.  However, they barely cleared .400 SLG and had RBI and OBP problems.  Neither team was able to gain much momentum on offense, but the Lannisters were bailed out by David Ortiz, who had a fantastic week.  Mike Trout added seven RBI and two homers.  The Cardinals-heavy Hollidays squad struggled outside of Stephen Piscotty, and dropped another five categories.  The Lannisters earned a 10-0 sweep, though the component stats were not high enough to merit much celebration.  Still, the workmanlike victory is the kind the Lannisters will need if they hope to challenge for the title again.

KK Thunderwolves (0-2-1) vs. CP Legion (2-1-1)

The week’s most bizarre stats belonged to the Thunderwolves and Legion.  Despite hitting just one home run, the Thunderwolves were almost able to knock off the Legion.  Kyle lacked any real power with just the single homer and a sub-.400 SLG.  However, five players tallied steals, and Kyle took OBP after a sub-part Legion effort.  Somehow, Kyle managed to lead the league in RBI despite the single home run.  Twelve Thunderwolves players had at least one RBI, while players like Ryan Braun, Addison Russell, and Mitch Moreland had at least four each.  Despite showing almost now power, the Thunderwolves were only down 2-3 thanks to their inexplicable RBI count.

Unfortunately for Kyle, much of his work on offense was undone by a terrible week for Zach Greinke.  The Diamondbacks’ ace gave up nine earned runs and 19 hits in 13.2 IP.  Edison Volquez was even worse, allowing eight earned runs in just five innings pitched.  Similar efforts from Yordano Ventura and Chase Anderson gave Chris easy wins in ERA and WHIP.  The Legion also had several two-start pitchers who performed well and piled up strikeouts.  This gave Chris secure wins in four categories, and earned him a 6-4 victory.  The win was another needed step for the Legion, who hope to compete despite a depleted roster.  Kyle has to be frustrated with his team’s start, given the effort he put forth in the off-season.  The offense continues to struggle, and the team’s pitching core has not performed well thus far.

LK Armadillos (2-0-1) vs. KG Goofballs (1-2)

The most competitive match of the week saw the Armadillos edge the Goofballs.  Kevin came up just a home run or two short of pulling off the upset of the 2014 champs.  Both teams performed remarkable well on pitching.  The Armadillos’ WHP was below 0.90 (best in the league) and the Goofballs were right behind them.  Larry had the second-lowest ERA to the Lannisters, and Kevin was in the mix as well.  The Armadillos took saves, but the Goofballs were able to easily pace the league in strikeouts.  Kevin’s 86 were the best in the league and more than double the total of the Happy Hollidays.  David Price, in particular, was phenomenal with 17 strikeouts in 15 IP.  The staff threw a lot of innings and enjoyed a corresponding number of wins.  This gave Kevin two categories to Larry’s three before accounting for hitting.

The clubs had the highest two SLG in the league.  Kevin took the category by a narrow margin, but a huge week from Giancarlo Stanton gave Larry the edge in OBP.  This meant that HR, RBI, and steals would decide the week.  Thanks to Stanton, Larry had a strong home run base, but Kevin answered with a distributed attack from Freddie Freeman, Gerardo Parra, and Logan Forsythe.  The two teams tied, with Larry taking a slim lead in steals and RBI.  This was enough to secure a 6-3-1 victory for the week for the Armadillos.  However, Kevin would have won with another home run and three RBI.  Kevin left a few home runs on the bench for the week, but none on Sunday.  He can take some consolation that the Armadillos left four home runs and 11 RBIs on the bench on Sunday alone.  The Armadillos remained unbeaten, and the Goofballs are left searching for better luck.

Upcoming Games

This week, the Armadillos hope to keep their momentum going against the Lannisters.  Jeff’s squad has struggled on offense and sometimes struggles against Larry’s high strikeout totals.  This week is the first of many battles between two teams expected to contend for the title.

After a nice bounce-back win, Heather hopes to keep things rolling against the Happy Hollidays.  Chris M. hasn’t been able to recapture his Week 01 magic, and will need better offense against the PhoeGnomes.  Heather remains a threat on both offense and pitching.

The Thunderwolves look for their first win against the Goofballs.  Kevin is likely frustrated with his luck thus far, and hopes that Kyle’s bats stay cool.  Meanwhile, the Possums want to pick up their first win against the Legion.  Chris P. hopes to build momentum and keep the Possums down.