This is the first of a weekly report on Elo ratings.  If you are not sure what these are, please check out the introduction I posted last month.

The season’s opening week provided new insight into each team’s true talent level.

The largest Elo gain belongs to the PhoeGnomes, who moved up almost 13 points after defeating the Legion.  Chris M. also moved closer to the 1,500 level with his win over the Thunderwolves.  The Armadillos and Lannisters saw smaller gains against weaker-rated opponents.  Remember, as your Elo rating rises, the amount of points you win for defeating inferior teams decreases.  You also lose more points when an underdog wins.

These ratings give the following probabilities going into Week 02:

As expected, the Lannisters are a heavy favorite against the Possums.  The Possums have just a 31% chance to win.  The Thunderwolves are also heavy underdogs to the Armadillos.  The Goofballs/PhoeGnomes match-up reads as a toss-up, but it’s important to remember that Heather’s new additions will take time to influence the team’s Elo rating.

Chris P. and Larry are also heavy favorites over the Happy Hollidays and Thunderwolves.  It will be interesting to see how these match-ups go.  The fact that the league’s best Elo team (the Lannisters) versus the lowest (the Possums) yields only a 70% chance of victory for the favorite shows how competitive the league is.