The Dick Nen Pre-Draft Analysis for the Dirt Mountain League
Dick Nen is a former MLB first baseman (father of former major league reliever Robb Nen). Nen played for the Los Angeles Dodgers (1963), the Washington Senators (1965–1967, 1970) and the Chicago Cubs (1968). His major league debut was September 18, 1963 with the Dodgers. As a pinch hitter in the top of the ninth inning against St. Louis, he hit a key, game-tying home run that eventually resulted in a three-game Dodger sweep over the Cardinals. I was listening to KMOX in St. Louis on a scratchy, worn out, fading in and out radio in Texas. Since I was a young Dodger fan, it was one my most memorable home runs. Nen would go on to hit only 20 more homers in the majors before retiring. His first one was a big one. This report is named in his honor. -Larry
RK—Possums (8th) 7-16-2
The Possums finished dead last in 2015. And not just playing dead either. They were 2.5 games out of 7th with only seven victories, and they were 10 full wins behind the champion Lannisters.
And yet they didn’t have a single last place finish in ANY of the ten statistical scoring categories! They were 2nd in one group, 4th in three others, and averaged 5th for all categories. So what happened?? Running into hot teams? Poor pitching matchups? Inopportune injuries? Slumps at bad times? Rick has probably spent the long off season asking those questions and wondering “why me?”
But a new season is almost upon us and the Possums are looking for some revenge. And there is some hope on the roster. But there are questions to be answered here as well.
RK traded his own #1 for LK’s #1 and #6. He then flipped LK’s #1 and his own #8 to JK for Josh Donaldson and JK’s #9. Donaldson brings instant credibility to the Possums infield. With Xander Bogaerts at SS the left side is in fine shape. The right side of the infield depends on health and injuries. At their best Votto, Pujols, and Kinsler would be excellent. But will they hold up for the long season?
If Evan Gattis regains catcher eligibility, he will be fine there. If not, there would seem to be a logjam with him and Pujols at DH. The OF also has injury concerns. Adam Jones is strong, but Brantley won’t be ready for opening day. What if his injury lingers? Blackmon is good, but K. Davis could have playing time issues after his trade to Oakland, though both guys offer good potential.
Starting pitching should be a strong suit – Scherzer, Kluber, and Tanaka are a formidable trio. And if Verlander bounces back…it’s even stronger. The bullpen offers only Britton – who has been very good, but who also has injury concerns.
Draft picks: Traded two #1’s and an 8 – added a 6 and 9.
Draft outlook: Overall, Rick has good balance. But he will need to look early for help behind the plate. And, obviously, RP will be high on the list of needs. There’s also a need for some OF depth, and a backup infielder probably will be high on the wish list. Other than that, the Possums should be able to go after the best players available, but they may want to keep an eye toward getting a little younger.
CM—The Happy Hollidays (7th) 9-13-3
The team formerly known as the Kazoos were tied for 6th/7th last year, but lost a tiebreaker and are drafting as the 7th place team – a respectable enough finish for an expansion club. Our first Michigan based franchise has moved to Chicago under the guidance of new manager (and Cardinals fan) Chris Mikell. Without CM’s guidance, the team’s hitting was poor — they were last in the league in HR, SB, and SLG. They were next to last in OBP; however, in an oddity, they managed to finish 4th in RBI?
Their pitching, on the other hand, was reasonably strong. They ended up 2nd in strikeouts, only 11 K’s behind the league leading Legion. And they were 4th in saves, and 5th in wins. However, their ERA and WHIP were too high for them to make much of a run, especially considering the weak offense. But staying out of the cellar as an expansion team is a nice accomplishment.
CM inherited a trade made by Ron, the prior owner, which moved his own 1st round pick to JK for Jeff’s 1st and 5th round picks this year. After he took over, CM engineered a trade that netted his team two young and promising talents – Sal Perez (C) and Randall Grichuk (OF) for his #3 and #8 picks this year. It’s a deal that gave him two decent bats to add to a relatively weak lineup, and also made his team much younger. Currently all his other players (except the two he traded for) are over 30. So Chris knows that he needs to address his weaknesses, and, at the same time, be aware of the need for an influx of young talent.
Draft picks: Traded a 1, 3, and 8 — added a 1, 5, and 10.
Draft outlook: There’s no SS or RP on the roster, so Chris M. will need to look in that direction fairly early. If Tex is healthy, 1B could be OK for another year at least, but there is a lot of age there. 2B looks good with N. Walker, but 3B is a little iffy with Wright and Prado. Perez is a nice addition – not the greatest fantasy numbers, but decent, and he’s a guy who plays almost every day (an obvious rarity at catcher). Ben Zobrist offers some flexibility with 2B and OF eligibility. The OF could be surprisingly good if Holliday is healthy and Grichuk takes another step forward in his development. The SP led by Cole Hamels and a rejuvenated Jaime Garcia has some potential. I would expect the Hollidays to go for some young talent to start building up their core players – this certainly should be a good year to do that.
KG—Capital City Goofballs (6th) 9-13-3
The Goofballs won a tiebreaker and are drafting as the 6th place team. Again, a very respectable showing for an expansion club. But I know KG is aching to improve as he begins his second season at the helm of the original Chicago franchise.
Despite finishing last in 4 of the 10 scoring categories and 7th in another, Kevin was able to guide his team to a 6th place finish. In fact, he was in the top four only in steals (3rd) and HR (4th). He made some very adept moves on the fly during his first season, and I expect he will continue to do so in 2016.
He has some strong assets to build upon. At 1B, he retained Brandon Belt and added Freddie Freeman in a trade with the Lannisters. The Goofballs have an outstanding 2B in Dozier and are very strong at 3B with Frazier and Maikel Franco. The OF is serviceable with Cain, Cespedes, and a young potential star in Jorge Soler (if he can find playing time in a very crowded Cubs outfield).
KG pulled off a trade with LK that brought him Cueto and a #15 to allow LK to move up one spot in the first round. This gives KG a solid rotation of Price, Gray, Stroman, Odirizzi, and Cueto. He also has protected two strong bullpen arms in Carlos Rondon and Ken Giles. Pitching should be a strong point.
Draft picks: Traded 1, 5, and 22 – added a 1 and 15.
Draft Outlook: Like the Legion and the Wolves, the Goofballs have no SS or C on their roster. The Possums have no C and the Hollidays and Armadillos have no SS. So much for teams that are strong up the middle! Certainly, the Goofballs will need to strike early to fill their void behind the plate and at shortstop. But other than that, they are well balanced and should be able to go after the best players regardless of position. I’m sure KG is happy to be starting with a full complement of draft picks.
KK—Thunderwolves (5th) 11-12-2
The Wolves flirted with the first division for a while last season, before finishing just a half game back. The team will be looking to move up this season. To do so, they will rely on pitching and more pitching. That’s the Kyle’s prime focus, and he is loaded. Cole, Greinke, Fernandez, Darvish, Wacha, Ventura – wow! Melancon to close out. KK has few immediate pitcher concerns. Last season they were 1st in W, 2nd in both ERA and WHIP, and tied for 2nd in Saves. This staff should be tough.
Offensively, the outlook isn’t as predictable. Can Fielder repeat last year’s comeback? Will Beltre stay healthy…and, if he does, will his age catch up with him? Will Upton remain at the same high level? Will Heyward finally have that big season everyone has been waiting for? Will Choo be the first or second half version from last year? Can Cruz connect for 44 homers again? Can Carpenter be counted on to have a SLG pct. higher than Abreu, Frazier, and Kris Bryant again, as he did in 2015? And if most of these players break the right way and repeat their good performances, will even that be enough? Last year the Wolves were 7th in ALL hitting categories except OBP (3rd?). Most importantly then is where will the offense come from?
Draft picks: Traded 1 and 2 – added a 2, 5, and 12.
Draft Outlook: The Wolves could have a dominating starting rotation, but will need to add bullpen depth (which as everyone found out last year isn’t easy to do). The biggest concern is the offense. This is a team that needs some good consistent hitters. Many of the hitters last year were streaky – which can cost a manager a week – and then the next week the same guys can explode and give you an easy win with wasted numbers. While paying the price for protecting all his those pitchers, KK has to find a C, a 1B, a 2B, and a SS – those are a lot of holes to fill! It is going to be a crucial draft for Kyle. He has to nail some solid picks if he hopes to break into the first division.
LK—Armadillos (4th) 11-11-3
Well, according to the Elo ratings, the Armadillos are the epitome of consistent mediocrity. Check out the perfect .500 record. Check out the steady Elo’s – never too high – never too low. A half game out of third – a half game out of fifth. This year they hope to improve.
LK’s team last year actually won 1st place in RBI, ERA, WHIP, and Saves, but was well down the charts in other categories. The team has Anthony Rizzo at 1B and Edwin Encarnacion to back him up and be the DH. Rougned Odor was picked up on waivers and could be a real find at 2B. Anthony Rendon can play either 2B or 3B – if he can stay healthy. Brain McCann is at catcher. The OF could be a real strength if they stay healthy and perform at past high levels. But there is definite injury uncertainty with nearly the whole batch of them: Stanton, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Starling Marte, and Billy Hamilton. Pitching was a strong point last year and Kershaw and Harvey are returning as starters. And Larry decided to bring back his tough bullpen intact by keeping Kimbrel, Rosenthal, and Familia who combined for 130 saves last year.
Draft picks: Traded 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 12, and 15 – added 1, 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 12, 20, and 22
Draft Outlook: The Armadillos love to deal and have two of the first three picks after overpaying Kevin to move up just one slot in the first round. Is there method to their madness? They have lost and gained picks all over the board. But they will have to very careful about how the draft plays out when they reach stretches without picks. The team has had long standing major problems in the infield. They have tried without luck to trade for talent at 2B, SS, and 3B. One of those positions will be targeted early in the draft, but the other two will also need to be solved if the team intends to compete for a title. LK has a good mix of young players and veterans. But to compete with the Lannisters and Legion – and the rising PhoeGnomes – and the hungry group of teams that finished below them this year, the Armadillos have to have an outstanding draft or they will surely fade in the standings.
HP—PhoeGnomes (3rd) 12-11-2
Heather’s squad finished at the top of the middle tier of teams besting the Wolves and Armadillos for third place, but still 4.5 games back of the Lannisters. Her newly named team did indeed pull off a renaissance by rising from the ashes of the previous year’s last place finish and a 7-15-1 record into the first division. But her team was clearly an enigma.
HP was 3rd in SLG, but only 5th in HR, 6th in OBP and SB, and 7th in RBI. On the pitching side of the ledger, she was near the bottom in most categories – last in ERA, 7th in Saves’s, 7th in Wins, and 5th in K’s. Her team seemed to play above the stats – unlike the Possums who seemed to do the reverse. So was there really a five game gap between the two teams? The PhoeGnomes go into 2016 hoping to answer that question with a resounding “yes.”
Heather has an extra first round pick from a prior trade, and now has the sixth and seventh slots in the first round. It is always nice to have back to back picks in your pocket going into a draft.
Draft Picks: Traded – none – added a 1 and 6.
Draft Outlook: HP seems to have a very well balanced group of protected players – and some very talented ones. At 1B is Abreu and Chris Davis, who can also play OF. At 2B is Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve with B. Crawford at SS. HP declined numerous trade offers (from the Armadillos) so Nolan Arenado remains at 3B. (Heather can expect another run at Arenado before she picks next Saturday! Hey, Jeff traded an MVP…).
The OF is little less of a sure thing, but there is still much potential with Springer, Puig, and Dickerson. d’Arnaud is unproven behind the plate, but offers a possible upside. The rotation includes Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Tyson Ross, and T. Walker – nice. The obvious need is RP which Heather will have to address early. Other than that she will have the luxury of choosing the best players without too much regard to position. I expect her to come away from this draft with a very talented group of players, and if she does, the PhoeGnomes could be a force.
CP—Legion (2nd) 15-8-2
The Legion ended up a game and a half off the pace last year after a tough season-long battle with the Lannisters. As can be seen by the Elo ratings on the Dirt Mountain website, the Legion have had some dominant stats over the past seasons, but have only one title to show for it. That has to be frustrating for Chris, and there is little doubt he will pull out all the stops to try to bring home a championship this year.
The Legion finished second in OBP & SLG and third in HR & RBI and even 5th in SB. His offense will go a long way toward accomplishing that goal. Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Jose “Bat-Flip’ Bautista, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen – all powerful sluggers. CP also has Javier Baez (waiting for a position and a full time gig), Kolten Wong, and Joc Pederson waiting to break out. There is also a trio of capable 3B in Longoria, Moustakas, and Castellanos.
However, on the pitching side, despite a 1st in K’s and a tie for 2nd in Wins, the team finished last in all the other pitching categories. That included the highest ERA at 4.10, almost a half run worst than the closest challenger. Of course, Chris generally disdains pitching, unless it is a potential ace he can develop then trade way for sluggers (see Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw)! Note that he did hang on to one starter – Danny Salazar – so if you need a good pitcher – dial up Chris P. and dangle a big hitter in front of him. The Legion (and Armadillos) are always willing to listen to an offer! CP does value great relievers, and he protected two of the good ones in Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.
Draft picks: Traded 1, 6, and 7 – added – (you must be kidding) none
Draft Outlook: The Legion can flat out hit. They have a lot of power. They have the potential to place very high once again in all the hitting categories. They do need a SS and catcher as none were frozen. This could be a bit problematic because so many other teams are in the same situation with one or both of those positions. Chris lost only three draft picks this year, so he will have a more normal draft than usual as he tries to reload and find quality backups. Keep an eye open though, as Chris is the Dirt Mountain version of “Jerry Jones” – he is definitely not afraid to wheel and deal on draft day. So I expect at least a trade or two before we are done that could change the landscape of the draft board. Things have been a bit quiet at Legion headquarters…
JK—Lannisters (1st) 17-7-1
Congratulations to the Lannisters! Jeff’s team roared to a 17 win season and last year’s championship. And talk about loaded! Trout, Harper, Machado, and the oldest one of them is 25! Plus AJ Pollock, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Buster Posey – the class of his position (notice how many teams didn’t even freeze a catcher). Also Tulowitzski, Cano, and Kipnis — if they stay healthy, they are all excellent. On the pitching side they have King Felix, Strasburg, and deGrom plus two strong relievers in Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen. Plus the second and fifth picks in the draft! Whew…this is a team that will be tough to beat!
Their biggest decisions in the offseason was deciding who to try to trade and recoup something, since they could only freeze 15. JK traded away the AL MVP, Josh Donaldson — what other team has the depth to do that?? He didn’t even protect the AL Cy Young winner, Kuechel. Don’t feel too sorry for him though, he still has the NL MVP in Bryce Harper! He was also able to get back some value for Freddie Freeman and Billy Hamilton rather than just cutting them for nothing. Jeff had some very tough calls on who to cut and who to keep – but it appears he played it well.
The Lannisters, as you would suspect, won many scoring categories. They were first in HR, SB, OBP, and SLG…and second in RBI (to that clutch hitting .500 team – the Armadillos). They also finished high in most pitching categories including a tie for second in Wins and Saves. Again, they are very strong and built to last. Can they be stopped next season? Seven teams will try!
Draft Picks: Traded a 1, 5, 8, 9, 11, and 20 – added a 1, 1, 5, 7, 8, and 9
Draft Outlook: Jeff has two of the first five picks. He has good balance and needs only a 1B. He has a good mix of veterans and youth, so he too can afford to draft for quality without having to reach for position needs. There are several 1B available to fill his only hole – he won’t have to go that way too early if he doesn’t want to. As good as his team is, however, there are some concerns with the pitching. Hernandez was erratic last year, and he had some blow ups in a few games that inflated his stats. Is he starting to slow done or was it just a blip on the radar? Strasburg remains a mystery – will he ever be the 20 game winner and ace that his stuff seems to indicate he should be? Can deGrom duplicate his outstanding 2015 season? If any of those pitchers falter, then the Lannisters might look a bit more human, but it will still be very difficult for anyone to pass up the Lannisters. It is going to be very interesting to see what Jeff does with those first two high picks!
Next Saturday, March 19, 2016 — fasten your seatbelts!
Dirt Mountain Baseball League 